RESAKSS ASIA

× The Ukraine War has had major implications for food security and food systems across the world given the important role both Russia and Ukraine play in global food, fertilizer, and energy markets. Russia and Ukraine together supply about 12% of global agricultural exports on a caloric basis and over 30% of global wheat exports.1 Fertilizer and energy markets experienced rising prices and supply disruptions as well. The Russia-Ukraine conflict heavily impacted food security in Sri Lanka which is dependent on imports from the Caspian region. The impact of this shock has been compounded for Sri Lanka which has been suffering from a severe economic crisis due to a lack of foreign reserves, a debt default, high inflation, import restrictions, and shortages of critical goods and services. These compound crises have halted Sri Lanka’s progress on economic development and its achievement of the SDGs. Progress had been significant with the share of undernourished population declining from 16.7% in 2001 to 3.4% in 2020.2 During the same period the prevalence of stunting declined from 20.6% to 16%.3 The prevalence of wasting among children under age five declined from 15.9% in 2000 to 15.1% in 2016. Sri Lanka was ranked 65th out of 116 countries on the Global Hunger Index and 77th out of 113 countries on the Global Food Security Index in 2022 suggesting the need for some improvements in the food system. The latest food security assessment by the World Food Program (WFP) notes that about 30% of the population of 22 million (6.26 Mn people) are food insecure.4 Further, most households are regularly employing food-based coping strategies such as eating less preferred and less nutritious food and reducing the amount of food they eat. Further, an estimated 200,000 households are using emergency livelihood coping strategies that are likely to severely impact their income-generating activities and it is anticipated that more people are turning to these coping strategies as the crisis deepens. Against this backdrop, this policy brief explores the impacts of the evolving crisis in Ukraine on the nexus of poverty, agriculture, and food security in Sri Lanka and the possible avenues for mitigating the negative implica-tions of export restrictions, rising import costs, and inflation.

× The Ukraine War has had major implications for food security and food systems across the world given the important role both Russia and Ukraine play in global food, fertilizer, and energy markets. Russia and Ukraine together supply about 12% of global agricultural exports on a caloric basis and over 30% of global wheat exports.1 Fertilizer and energy markets experienced rising prices and supply disruptions as well. The Russia-Ukraine conflict heavily impacted food security in Sri Lanka which is dependent on imports from the Caspian region. The impact of this shock has been compounded for Sri Lanka which has been suffering from a severe economic crisis due to a lack of foreign reserves, a debt default, high inflation, import restrictions, and shortages of critical goods and services. These compound crises have halted Sri Lanka’s progress on economic development and its achievement of the SDGs. Progress had been significant with the share of undernourished population declining from 16.7% in 2001 to 3.4% in 2020.2 During the same period the prevalence of stunting declined from 20.6% to 16%.3 The prevalence of wasting among children under age five declined from 15.9% in 2000 to 15.1% in 2016. Sri Lanka was ranked 65th out of 116 countries on the Global Hunger Index and 77th out of 113 countries on the Global Food Security Index in 2022 suggesting the need for some improvements in the food system. The latest food security assessment by the World Food Program (WFP) notes that about 30% of the population of 22 million (6.26 Mn people) are food insecure.4 Further, most households are regularly employing food-based coping strategies such as eating less preferred and less nutritious food and reducing the amount of food they eat. Further, an estimated 200,000 households are using emergency livelihood coping strategies that are likely to severely impact their income-generating activities and it is anticipated that more people are turning to these coping strategies as the crisis deepens. Against this backdrop, this policy brief explores the impacts of the evolving crisis in Ukraine on the nexus of poverty, agriculture, and food security in Sri Lanka and the possible avenues for mitigating the negative implica-tions of export restrictions, rising import costs, and inflation.

× If smallholder farming households in Papua New Guinea achieve higher crop productivity levels, progress will be made along several dimensions of the development vision for PNG – increasing GDP for the agricultural sector and the overall economy; driving growth, diversification, and transformation of local rural economies; improving food consumption; and reducing poverty. In this paper, we examine recent data on yields for the most important crops grown in PNG, assess what yields might be achieved based on productivity data from areas of Indonesia with similar growing conditions, and sketch where policy reforms could provide incentives and access to technologies to achieve higher crop yields by all farmers across PNG.

× If smallholder farming households in Papua New Guinea achieve higher crop productivity levels, progress will be made along several dimensions of the development vision for PNG – increasing GDP for the agricultural sector and the overall economy; driving growth, diversification, and transformation of local rural economies; improving food consumption; and reducing poverty. In this paper, we examine recent data on yields for the most important crops grown in PNG, assess what yields might be achieved based on productivity data from areas of Indonesia with similar growing conditions, and sketch where policy reforms could provide incentives and access to technologies to achieve higher crop yields by all farmers across PNG.

× Public food transfer programs serve as an important safety net for those facing hunger and food insecurity in both low- and high-income countries around the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these programs have become even more crucial, as food insecurity and poverty rates have soared. But lockdowns and other public health restrictions can also disrupt food distribution operations and thus limit their effectiveness.

× Public food transfer programs serve as an important safety net for those facing hunger and food insecurity in both low- and high-income countries around the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these programs have become even more crucial, as food insecurity and poverty rates have soared. But lockdowns and other public health restrictions can also disrupt food distribution operations and thus limit their effectiveness.

× In a recent working paper, we examine staple and cash crop production yields in Papua New Guinea (PNG). In doing so, we assess the yield gap (difference between the crop yields farmers commonly obtain and what they might realize with optimal inputs and crop management) for the main staple food crops in PNG. The yield gap for sweet potato is the smallest (1/4 - 1/3 less than attainable yields), while banana shows the largest yield gap at about ¾ less than what might be achieved under intensive cultivation. In addition, we compare PNG agricultural output with areas of similar growing conditions in Indonesia to provide insight into potential investments to further spur agricultural productivity in PNG. Finally, we assess current sector policies in PNG that aim to support agricultural development as an engine for economic growth.

× In a recent working paper, we examine staple and cash crop production yields in Papua New Guinea (PNG). In doing so, we assess the yield gap (difference between the crop yields farmers commonly obtain and what they might realize with optimal inputs and crop management) for the main staple food crops in PNG. The yield gap for sweet potato is the smallest (1/4 - 1/3 less than attainable yields), while banana shows the largest yield gap at about ¾ less than what might be achieved under intensive cultivation. In addition, we compare PNG agricultural output with areas of similar growing conditions in Indonesia to provide insight into potential investments to further spur agricultural productivity in PNG. Finally, we assess current sector policies in PNG that aim to support agricultural development as an engine for economic growth.

× During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, several major rice exporting countries, grappling with rising economic uncertainties, suspended rice exports to ensure adequate domestic supply. Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Myanmar temporarily halted rice exports, contributing to spikes in rice prices on international markets. By April 2020, rice prices had increased by over 35 percent in Thailand and 20 percent in Viet Nam (important benchmark countries for international rice price monitoring). International rice prices rose an average of 25 percent during March–September 2020 and remained high (on average 36 percent higher in March 2021) compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, despite the loosening of rice export restrictions and quarantine measures in the second half of 2020.

× During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, several major rice exporting countries, grappling with rising economic uncertainties, suspended rice exports to ensure adequate domestic supply. Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Myanmar temporarily halted rice exports, contributing to spikes in rice prices on international markets. By April 2020, rice prices had increased by over 35 percent in Thailand and 20 percent in Viet Nam (important benchmark countries for international rice price monitoring). International rice prices rose an average of 25 percent during March–September 2020 and remained high (on average 36 percent higher in March 2021) compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, despite the loosening of rice export restrictions and quarantine measures in the second half of 2020.

× Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population.
This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks.
The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.

× Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population.
This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks.
The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.

× Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based die tary guidelines.

× Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based die tary guidelines.

× While a lot of development planning and policy attention has been dedicated to achieving dietary energy (i.e., calorie) adequacy to ensure food security and support greater household wellbeing, nutrition adequacy is also necessary to achieve improved human development indicators (e.g., improved educational attainment, decreased disease prevalence, and decreased child stunting prevalence). This study (explained in detail in the comprehensive working paper) calculates two poverty lines based on the costs that an individual faces in PNG to secure a diet consisting of foods typically consumed by poor households adjusted to align with a calorie threshold and healthy diet thresholds, respectively, together with modest non-food expenditures. Results suggest that over half of the sample households are unable to meet the necessary costs of ensuring an calorie equate modest food basket along with some basic non-food needs (Schmidt et al., 2022). Comparing the healthy diet poverty line to average household income suggests that attaining a nutritious, balanced diet while meeting other basic needs remains out of reach for nearly 4/5 of the rural sample households. Based on the study results, we identify 3 key interventions to improve food and nutrition security in vulnerable areas. First, PNG will continue to face disruptive climate events that quickly increase agricultural vulnerability and food insecurity in remote areas with limited market access and underdeveloped support services. The government of PNG in collaboration with development partners should pilot a series of social safety net programs that can assist vulnerable populations. These programs can be designed to build resiliency during non-shock seasons or years, such as improving livestock holdings, diversifying crop mix, investing in sustainable land management, and building agricultural production and other rural infrastructure for improved marketing and access to agricultural inputs. Second, a concerted effort is needed to promote the importance of nutrition at all levels of society. At the household level, training should aim to instill (for both men and women) the value of a costlier, but more nutritious diet. District and regional government officials, healthcare workers and other key stakeholders should be trained on methodologies to integrate nutrition programming into other development activities. High-level government dialogue and learning should aim to encourage greater coordination between local and federal government officials and across government departments to ensure improved nutrition outcomes for greater agricultural productivity and economic growth. Finally, PNG (both government and development partners) must invest in more timely data collection of key welfare indicators to inform nutrition targets and assistance programming.

× While a lot of development planning and policy attention has been dedicated to achieving dietary energy (i.e., calorie) adequacy to ensure food security and support greater household wellbeing, nutrition adequacy is also necessary to achieve improved human development indicators (e.g., improved educational attainment, decreased disease prevalence, and decreased child stunting prevalence). This study (explained in detail in the comprehensive working paper) calculates two poverty lines based on the costs that an individual faces in PNG to secure a diet consisting of foods typically consumed by poor households adjusted to align with a calorie threshold and healthy diet thresholds, respectively, together with modest non-food expenditures. Results suggest that over half of the sample households are unable to meet the necessary costs of ensuring an calorie equate modest food basket along with some basic non-food needs (Schmidt et al., 2022). Comparing the healthy diet poverty line to average household income suggests that attaining a nutritious, balanced diet while meeting other basic needs remains out of reach for nearly 4/5 of the rural sample households. Based on the study results, we identify 3 key interventions to improve food and nutrition security in vulnerable areas. First, PNG will continue to face disruptive climate events that quickly increase agricultural vulnerability and food insecurity in remote areas with limited market access and underdeveloped support services. The government of PNG in collaboration with development partners should pilot a series of social safety net programs that can assist vulnerable populations. These programs can be designed to build resiliency during non-shock seasons or years, such as improving livestock holdings, diversifying crop mix, investing in sustainable land management, and building agricultural production and other rural infrastructure for improved marketing and access to agricultural inputs. Second, a concerted effort is needed to promote the importance of nutrition at all levels of society. At the household level, training should aim to instill (for both men and women) the value of a costlier, but more nutritious diet. District and regional government officials, healthcare workers and other key stakeholders should be trained on methodologies to integrate nutrition programming into other development activities. High-level government dialogue and learning should aim to encourage greater coordination between local and federal government officials and across government departments to ensure improved nutrition outcomes for greater agricultural productivity and economic growth. Finally, PNG (both government and development partners) must invest in more timely data collection of key welfare indicators to inform nutrition targets and assistance programming.

× Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy.
There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well.
Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor.
Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points.
A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.

× Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy.
There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well.
Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor.
Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points.
A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.

× The welfare of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG’s) population depends on domestic agriculture productivity and stability. As of 2019, value-added from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors totaled approximately 17 percent of GDP. However, when considering the downstream value chain activities directly related to the agriculture sector (e.g., agriculture processing, domestic food trade and transportation, and domestic food commodity sales), the larger agri-food system in PNG contributes over 25 percent to the country’s overall GDP (Pradesha and Dorosh, 2022). Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction within the country. Growing a globally competitive agriculture sector also demands investments and capacity strengthening in mid-stream value chain operations such as product aggregation, transport logistics, packaging and processing, and handling. It is important that these investments also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. Previous research suggests that where women are economically empowered and have access to decent jobs in lucrative nodes (i.e., activities) of value chains, households have higher incomes and are less likely to be poor (FAO, 2011). In PNG, despite women’s greater share of employment in agriculture (60 and 52 percent of women and men work in agriculture, respectively), women participate less in higher-value agricultural production and trade activities (Chang et al., 2016; Omot, Chambers, and Spriggs, 2013; World Bank, 2022).

× The welfare of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG’s) population depends on domestic agriculture productivity and stability. As of 2019, value-added from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors totaled approximately 17 percent of GDP. However, when considering the downstream value chain activities directly related to the agriculture sector (e.g., agriculture processing, domestic food trade and transportation, and domestic food commodity sales), the larger agri-food system in PNG contributes over 25 percent to the country’s overall GDP (Pradesha and Dorosh, 2022). Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction within the country. Growing a globally competitive agriculture sector also demands investments and capacity strengthening in mid-stream value chain operations such as product aggregation, transport logistics, packaging and processing, and handling. It is important that these investments also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. Previous research suggests that where women are economically empowered and have access to decent jobs in lucrative nodes (i.e., activities) of value chains, households have higher incomes and are less likely to be poor (FAO, 2011). In PNG, despite women’s greater share of employment in agriculture (60 and 52 percent of women and men work in agriculture, respectively), women participate less in higher-value agricultural production and trade activities (Chang et al., 2016; Omot, Chambers, and Spriggs, 2013; World Bank, 2022).

× Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Investments in midstream value chain infrastructure (e.g., improved storage facilities, rural feeder roads, electricity, and cold storage transport) are crucial to strengthen linkages between producers and consumers. These investments should also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. In this study, we analyzed three key value chains in Papua New Guinea—poultry, sweet potato, and fresh vegetables—aiming to guide policymakers and stakeholders toward ways to improve productivity, increase revenue, and bolster competitiveness and inclusiveness within the agriculture and livestock sectors.

× Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Investments in midstream value chain infrastructure (e.g., improved storage facilities, rural feeder roads, electricity, and cold storage transport) are crucial to strengthen linkages between producers and consumers. These investments should also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. In this study, we analyzed three key value chains in Papua New Guinea—poultry, sweet potato, and fresh vegetables—aiming to guide policymakers and stakeholders toward ways to improve productivity, increase revenue, and bolster competitiveness and inclusiveness within the agriculture and livestock sectors.

× Though declining in importance as Nepal undergoes structural transformation, agriculture still accounts for 23.9% of GDP and one in five people was employed in the sector with a larger share of women (33 percent) employed in agriculture than men (14.7 percent) (Labor survey of 2017-18). While not directly employed in agriculture, approximately 60 percent of the population has some engagement with the sector.

× Though declining in importance as Nepal undergoes structural transformation, agriculture still accounts for 23.9% of GDP and one in five people was employed in the sector with a larger share of women (33 percent) employed in agriculture than men (14.7 percent) (Labor survey of 2017-18). While not directly employed in agriculture, approximately 60 percent of the population has some engagement with the sector.

× Russia’s war on Ukraine shows no signs of subsidence. Its economic and societal adversities have already been felt worldwide but keep evolving, with food and energy being the most affected. Low-income, food-deficit nations importing from these two countries – many of which are in Northern Africa and Western and Central Asia – face critical challenges. The South Asian region, which has grappled with surging commodity prices and supply constraints even before the war, is likely to witness further inflation with rising food and oil prices. India is home to around 18% of the world’s population and accounts for 74% of the South Asian population. It is predicted to be the fastest-growing big economy this year. The country’s central bank (RBI) predicts that GDP will grow by 7.5% in FY 2022-23 (RBI, 2022), while many international organizations forecast growth between 6.4% and 8.2% (ADB, 2022; IMF, 2022; United Nations, 2022; World Bank, 2022). Still, in the wake of the ill effects of COVID-19, the country’s dependence on imports such as oil, fertilizers, and edible oils, and given surging domestic food and nonfood inflation in recent months, raises concerns about economic stability and possible interventions that might curtail fragility. The country consumes around 5 million barrels of crude oil daily but imports over 89% of its requirement from overseas. Crude oil prices have increased by 27% in just four months since the start of the war (February- June 2022). Edible oils have similarly increased, with palm and soybean oil prices rising by around 14% and 18%, respectively. The price of sunflower seed oil has increased by 42%, of which 86% originates from Ukraine and Russia. Fertilizer import dependency from the conflict regions is also sizeable. Russia was the 5th largest supplier of fertilizers to India in 2021-22, and Ukraine and Belarus were the 9th and 10th largest suppliers. The rise in prices of both finished fertilizers and fertilizer inputs has prompted the Government to double the fertilizer subsidy budgeted earlier this year. This policy brief investigates India's susceptibility to the war's disruptions and higher prices for commodities where import dependence is high. It then discusses potential income, food, and nutritional impacts on farmers, the poor, and the vulnerable. It also evaluates the Government’s policy measures such as subsidization, social safety nets, and trade diversification to reduce the impact of the war. Finally, it explores the market opportunities the conflict has created and the required structural reforms that would equip the country to handle such shocks in the future

× Russia’s war on Ukraine shows no signs of subsidence. Its economic and societal adversities have already been felt worldwide but keep evolving, with food and energy being the most affected. Low-income, food-deficit nations importing from these two countries – many of which are in Northern Africa and Western and Central Asia – face critical challenges. The South Asian region, which has grappled with surging commodity prices and supply constraints even before the war, is likely to witness further inflation with rising food and oil prices. India is home to around 18% of the world’s population and accounts for 74% of the South Asian population. It is predicted to be the fastest-growing big economy this year. The country’s central bank (RBI) predicts that GDP will grow by 7.5% in FY 2022-23 (RBI, 2022), while many international organizations forecast growth between 6.4% and 8.2% (ADB, 2022; IMF, 2022; United Nations, 2022; World Bank, 2022). Still, in the wake of the ill effects of COVID-19, the country’s dependence on imports such as oil, fertilizers, and edible oils, and given surging domestic food and nonfood inflation in recent months, raises concerns about economic stability and possible interventions that might curtail fragility. The country consumes around 5 million barrels of crude oil daily but imports over 89% of its requirement from overseas. Crude oil prices have increased by 27% in just four months since the start of the war (February- June 2022). Edible oils have similarly increased, with palm and soybean oil prices rising by around 14% and 18%, respectively. The price of sunflower seed oil has increased by 42%, of which 86% originates from Ukraine and Russia. Fertilizer import dependency from the conflict regions is also sizeable. Russia was the 5th largest supplier of fertilizers to India in 2021-22, and Ukraine and Belarus were the 9th and 10th largest suppliers. The rise in prices of both finished fertilizers and fertilizer inputs has prompted the Government to double the fertilizer subsidy budgeted earlier this year. This policy brief investigates India's susceptibility to the war's disruptions and higher prices for commodities where import dependence is high. It then discusses potential income, food, and nutritional impacts on farmers, the poor, and the vulnerable. It also evaluates the Government’s policy measures such as subsidization, social safety nets, and trade diversification to reduce the impact of the war. Finally, it explores the market opportunities the conflict has created and the required structural reforms that would equip the country to handle such shocks in the future

× Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG.
In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country.
We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1
The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation.
A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

× Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG.
In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country.
We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1
The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation.
A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

× Public food transfer program provide a lifeline for the poor in both high- and low-income countries, and many countries stepped these up in response to COVID-19. But little is known about how effective these programs have been in reaching the poor during the crisis. This brief reviews the findings of an evaluation of Bangladesh’s Food Friendly Program, pointing to the difficulties encountered during the pandemic and lessons to help these program perform better in future crises.

× Public food transfer program provide a lifeline for the poor in both high- and low-income countries, and many countries stepped these up in response to COVID-19. But little is known about how effective these programs have been in reaching the poor during the crisis. This brief reviews the findings of an evaluation of Bangladesh’s Food Friendly Program, pointing to the difficulties encountered during the pandemic and lessons to help these program perform better in future crises.

× Provision of food safety requires not only regulation but also a demand pull where value chain participants demand food safety or are able to play their role in providing safe food. In both cases, producer, and consumer awareness about requirements for food safety is a precondition for delivery of food safety. In this paper, focusing on dairy in Sri Lanka, we assess the awareness and choice of practices by producers and consumers towards food safety. Sri Lanka has unique features in the dairy sector, with very high import penetration and form of consumption, i.e., powdered milk, that actuates formalization.
Looking at different segments of the population, including rural, urban and estate, and different management systems, the evidence suggests only a moderate level of food safety awareness in dairy in middle-income consumers in Sri Lanka. Considering the differences across systems, the degree of adoption of food safety is lowest among farmers in the extensive system, while it is highest among farmers in the intensive system. However, in terms of choice between powdered and fresh milk, food safety consciousness is one of the most significant determinants where fresh milk is considered comparatively unsafe.
Even when food safety issues arose in powdered milk, only small adjustments occurred in consumption, both because the health effects were limited, and the choice sets were circumscribed by the number of brands across which some consumers switched following the food safety scare. In the push toward promotion of fresh milk consumption, ensuring food safety and convincing consumers about merits of fresh milk would be required in Sri Lanka beyond the preference change from well-established powdered milk consumption.

× Provision of food safety requires not only regulation but also a demand pull where value chain participants demand food safety or are able to play their role in providing safe food. In both cases, producer, and consumer awareness about requirements for food safety is a precondition for delivery of food safety. In this paper, focusing on dairy in Sri Lanka, we assess the awareness and choice of practices by producers and consumers towards food safety. Sri Lanka has unique features in the dairy sector, with very high import penetration and form of consumption, i.e., powdered milk, that actuates formalization.
Looking at different segments of the population, including rural, urban and estate, and different management systems, the evidence suggests only a moderate level of food safety awareness in dairy in middle-income consumers in Sri Lanka. Considering the differences across systems, the degree of adoption of food safety is lowest among farmers in the extensive system, while it is highest among farmers in the intensive system. However, in terms of choice between powdered and fresh milk, food safety consciousness is one of the most significant determinants where fresh milk is considered comparatively unsafe.
Even when food safety issues arose in powdered milk, only small adjustments occurred in consumption, both because the health effects were limited, and the choice sets were circumscribed by the number of brands across which some consumers switched following the food safety scare. In the push toward promotion of fresh milk consumption, ensuring food safety and convincing consumers about merits of fresh milk would be required in Sri Lanka beyond the preference change from well-established powdered milk consumption.

× This study, based on a primary survey conducted in Bangladesh in 2016, assesses the impact of contract farming in broiler production on profits and the adoption of food safety measures at the farm level. It also estimates the determinants for participation in contract farming, finding a farmer’s education and broiler-housing structure to be significant determinants. This study uniquely assesses the association of contract farming with the provision of well-defined food safety attributes. It finds that contract participation enhances farmers’ net returns by as much as 215–280% and raises compliance with food safety measures by around 13%. Increased productivity and provision of non-price attributes such as food safety in the product account for the difference in farmer returns.

× This study, based on a primary survey conducted in Bangladesh in 2016, assesses the impact of contract farming in broiler production on profits and the adoption of food safety measures at the farm level. It also estimates the determinants for participation in contract farming, finding a farmer’s education and broiler-housing structure to be significant determinants. This study uniquely assesses the association of contract farming with the provision of well-defined food safety attributes. It finds that contract participation enhances farmers’ net returns by as much as 215–280% and raises compliance with food safety measures by around 13%. Increased productivity and provision of non-price attributes such as food safety in the product account for the difference in farmer returns.

× The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. During the last several months, IFPRI has been analyzing a variety of Papua New Guinea (PNG) national and global datasets with the goal of expanding analytical tools to evaluate potential production shortfalls and food price shocks, and their associated impacts on household food security and livelihoods. This research note focuses on agri-food import and export trends during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in related import demand and export potential in PNG. In doing so, this research note informs an upcoming economy-wide multi market model analysis that will model a variety of potential shocks to household welfare to identify policies to manage potential ensuing food security threats.
PNG’s growth in international agri-food trade (both export and import) will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa, palm oil) depend on the cash economy to supplement overall food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports (as well as domestic goods) for consumption. Agri-food imports are also contributing to important increases in the availability of protein-dense foods, with the value of poultry imports growing, on average, 30 percent per capita per year from 2001 – 2016. Although PNG’s agri-food import data suggest a greater demand for higher value food items such as animal-sourced foods, the total import value of ultra-processed foods, such as sugary drinks, are also increasing rapidly within PNG.
The profitability and growth of agricultural exports and imports are driven by several factors, including levels of public investment in infrastructure, weather and climate shocks, security and political stability, and conditions in the world market. Government economic policies, including exchange rate, trade and price policies, also heavily influence agricultural trade. Policy to promote and facilitate domestic movement of goods, as well as macro-economic policies that influence the relative price of tradable to non-tradable goods (the real exchange rate) should be managed appropriately to support and incentivize greater agri-food production and trade. These policies could also be paired with an expanded set of education programs that integrate nutrition-sensitive information to address current increases in demand and consumption of high-saturated and sugary processed goods, of which total import values are rapidly increasing in PNG. Finally, a greater portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools and policy resources are warranted to facilitate real-time policy analysis that can inform key development investments and initiatives.

× The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. During the last several months, IFPRI has been analyzing a variety of Papua New Guinea (PNG) national and global datasets with the goal of expanding analytical tools to evaluate potential production shortfalls and food price shocks, and their associated impacts on household food security and livelihoods. This research note focuses on agri-food import and export trends during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in related import demand and export potential in PNG. In doing so, this research note informs an upcoming economy-wide multi market model analysis that will model a variety of potential shocks to household welfare to identify policies to manage potential ensuing food security threats.
PNG’s growth in international agri-food trade (both export and import) will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa, palm oil) depend on the cash economy to supplement overall food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports (as well as domestic goods) for consumption. Agri-food imports are also contributing to important increases in the availability of protein-dense foods, with the value of poultry imports growing, on average, 30 percent per capita per year from 2001 – 2016. Although PNG’s agri-food import data suggest a greater demand for higher value food items such as animal-sourced foods, the total import value of ultra-processed foods, such as sugary drinks, are also increasing rapidly within PNG.
The profitability and growth of agricultural exports and imports are driven by several factors, including levels of public investment in infrastructure, weather and climate shocks, security and political stability, and conditions in the world market. Government economic policies, including exchange rate, trade and price policies, also heavily influence agricultural trade. Policy to promote and facilitate domestic movement of goods, as well as macro-economic policies that influence the relative price of tradable to non-tradable goods (the real exchange rate) should be managed appropriately to support and incentivize greater agri-food production and trade. These policies could also be paired with an expanded set of education programs that integrate nutrition-sensitive information to address current increases in demand and consumption of high-saturated and sugary processed goods, of which total import values are rapidly increasing in PNG. Finally, a greater portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools and policy resources are warranted to facilitate real-time policy analysis that can inform key development investments and initiatives.

× Developments in the agricultural economy of Papua New Guinea have major impacts on household food consumption decisions. A household’s ability to produce and sell food is affected by climate and associated agricultural potential, market opportunities (domestic, import and export) and unexpected shocks. Each of these factors affects the overall food system, thereby influencing production and consumption of all food products and the markets in which they are traded. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a challenge far more complex than an agricultural production shock, such as those due to El Niño or pests. Rather than directly affecting agricultural output and rural household welfare, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies across the globe via trade disruptions (logistic challenges; international trade barriers), social distancing policies (domestic food market and nonessential business closures), and transportation restrictions (road closures; air travel cancellations). The measures aimed to curb the spread of COVID-19 have affected household incomes via urban job losses, reduced market interaction, and dramatic changes in world food prices. While rice prices have increased, luxury food prices, such as for chocolate (i.e. cocoa), have decreased. PNG’s unique and highly varied biophysical landscape has shaped agricultural production patterns, outcomes, and livelihoods for centuries. Understanding how the PNG agrifood economy and resulting household consumption is affected by COVID-19 therefore requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded.

× Developments in the agricultural economy of Papua New Guinea have major impacts on household food consumption decisions. A household’s ability to produce and sell food is affected by climate and associated agricultural potential, market opportunities (domestic, import and export) and unexpected shocks. Each of these factors affects the overall food system, thereby influencing production and consumption of all food products and the markets in which they are traded. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a challenge far more complex than an agricultural production shock, such as those due to El Niño or pests. Rather than directly affecting agricultural output and rural household welfare, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies across the globe via trade disruptions (logistic challenges; international trade barriers), social distancing policies (domestic food market and nonessential business closures), and transportation restrictions (road closures; air travel cancellations). The measures aimed to curb the spread of COVID-19 have affected household incomes via urban job losses, reduced market interaction, and dramatic changes in world food prices. While rice prices have increased, luxury food prices, such as for chocolate (i.e. cocoa), have decreased. PNG’s unique and highly varied biophysical landscape has shaped agricultural production patterns, outcomes, and livelihoods for centuries. Understanding how the PNG agrifood economy and resulting household consumption is affected by COVID-19 therefore requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded.

× This paper aims to provide a better understanding of Myanmar’s agricultural export performance against its competitors in different regions and determine the policy actions for improving Myanmar’s export performance. The normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) index is computed to compare the agricultural competitiveness between Myanmar and its competitors from 2007 to 2016. The results show that: 1) Myanmar’s agricultural export sector enjoys comparative advantage in the global market, but it is not competitive when compared with its major competitors; 2) Myanmar reveals a high level of NRCAs in black gram & pigeon peas, natural rubber, sesame seeds, rice, and frozen fish, while it has low NRCAs in crustaceans and dried fruits; and reveals no comparative advantage in bananas, fish fillets, maize, nuts, and watermelon in certain years. Three major policy implications are drawn, including diversifying Myanmar’s export portfolio, strengthening export promotion and development, and attracting foreign direct investment to upgrade the cross-border value chain.

× This paper aims to provide a better understanding of Myanmar’s agricultural export performance against its competitors in different regions and determine the policy actions for improving Myanmar’s export performance. The normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) index is computed to compare the agricultural competitiveness between Myanmar and its competitors from 2007 to 2016. The results show that: 1) Myanmar’s agricultural export sector enjoys comparative advantage in the global market, but it is not competitive when compared with its major competitors; 2) Myanmar reveals a high level of NRCAs in black gram & pigeon peas, natural rubber, sesame seeds, rice, and frozen fish, while it has low NRCAs in crustaceans and dried fruits; and reveals no comparative advantage in bananas, fish fillets, maize, nuts, and watermelon in certain years. Three major policy implications are drawn, including diversifying Myanmar’s export portfolio, strengthening export promotion and development, and attracting foreign direct investment to upgrade the cross-border value chain.

× Since 2012/13, rice exports to China (which may have reached two million tons in 2015/16) boosted total demand for Myanmar’s rice and rice prices. In mid-2016, however, China stopped rice imports through the main land entry point, putting substantial downward pressure on prices. Analysis presented in this paper, based on econometric estimates of consumption parameters and a simple model of Myanmar’s rice supply and demand, suggests that market prices would fall by 26 to 43 percent or more (in real terms) in the absence of increased exports to the world market and/or government domestic procurement. Such a decline in prices could have seriously harmed Myanmar’s rice producers, including many poor farmers with marketable surpluses. Model simulations suggest that government procurement of about one million tons would limit the estimated price decline to only 17 to 30 percent. Further refinements in the simulations are needed to take account for the seasonal nature of paddy production in Myanmar, possible price-responsiveness of export demand and the effects of changes in paddy incomes on farmer demand for rice. Medium-term analysis of procurement, storage and future sales is needed to analyze fiscal costs under various scenarios, as well, covering alternative shocks to production, export demand and world prices. Nonetheless, the main results are clear: without substantial market interventions on the order of one million tons (milled rice equivalent), the paddy (rice) price could fall dramatically when production increases or export demand declines.

× Since 2012/13, rice exports to China (which may have reached two million tons in 2015/16) boosted total demand for Myanmar’s rice and rice prices. In mid-2016, however, China stopped rice imports through the main land entry point, putting substantial downward pressure on prices. Analysis presented in this paper, based on econometric estimates of consumption parameters and a simple model of Myanmar’s rice supply and demand, suggests that market prices would fall by 26 to 43 percent or more (in real terms) in the absence of increased exports to the world market and/or government domestic procurement. Such a decline in prices could have seriously harmed Myanmar’s rice producers, including many poor farmers with marketable surpluses. Model simulations suggest that government procurement of about one million tons would limit the estimated price decline to only 17 to 30 percent. Further refinements in the simulations are needed to take account for the seasonal nature of paddy production in Myanmar, possible price-responsiveness of export demand and the effects of changes in paddy incomes on farmer demand for rice. Medium-term analysis of procurement, storage and future sales is needed to analyze fiscal costs under various scenarios, as well, covering alternative shocks to production, export demand and world prices. Nonetheless, the main results are clear: without substantial market interventions on the order of one million tons (milled rice equivalent), the paddy (rice) price could fall dramatically when production increases or export demand declines.

× Contract farming is emerging as an important institutional innovation in the high value food chain in developing countries including Bangladesh, and its socioeconomic implications are topic of interest in policy debates. This study is an empirical assessment to explore the determinants of participation and the impact of contract farming on welfare and adoption of food safety practice in Bangladesh. Our analysis indicates that contract farmers are more likely to have better access to agricultural extension services, attended proportionately more community meetings, households members are member of organizations, access more credit, are located farther from output market, and have larger herd sizes. We also find that network variables such as time spent with cooperatives and other institutions and price fluctuation and average prices received experience before participation in contract are strongly associated with participation in contract farming. We find that contract farming has a robust positive impact on welfare measured by expenditure, farm profit and farm productivity, and food safety practice adoption even after innovatively controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity among dairy farmers. More specifically results indicate that a one unit increase in the likelihood of participating in contract farming is associated with a 42, 35,34 and 9 percent increase in household expenditure, gross margin and net margin per cow, and food safety practice adoption rate respectively, among other positive impacts.

× Contract farming is emerging as an important institutional innovation in the high value food chain in developing countries including Bangladesh, and its socioeconomic implications are topic of interest in policy debates. This study is an empirical assessment to explore the determinants of participation and the impact of contract farming on welfare and adoption of food safety practice in Bangladesh. Our analysis indicates that contract farmers are more likely to have better access to agricultural extension services, attended proportionately more community meetings, households members are member of organizations, access more credit, are located farther from output market, and have larger herd sizes. We also find that network variables such as time spent with cooperatives and other institutions and price fluctuation and average prices received experience before participation in contract are strongly associated with participation in contract farming. We find that contract farming has a robust positive impact on welfare measured by expenditure, farm profit and farm productivity, and food safety practice adoption even after innovatively controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity among dairy farmers. More specifically results indicate that a one unit increase in the likelihood of participating in contract farming is associated with a 42, 35,34 and 9 percent increase in household expenditure, gross margin and net margin per cow, and food safety practice adoption rate respectively, among other positive impacts.

× Fish play a major role in the Bangladesh food system. Fish production, processing and marketing are major source of incomes for many households, and fish consumption accounts for a significant share of protein consumption in the Bangladeshi diet. Moreover, fish production and consumption are growting rapidly, with the aquaculture subsector as a major driver of change of both supply and demand. In this paper, we present estimates of demand elasticities for four categories of fish (aquaculture, inland capture, mixed production, and marine) using a modified Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. These demand estimates are then used in projections of future supply and demand for these different types of fish under different productivity growth assumptions. Our results show that, at current rates of productivity increase, growth in fish production will outpace increases in demand from population and income growth, resulting a decline in real prices over time. A more rapid increase in productivity would lead to even larger supply increases and corresponding price declines. These effects are most keenly felt by the poorest households who see significant increases in fish consumption. Fish production from aquaculture is likely to have higher rates of productivity growth than the more extensive inland capture and marine systems, leading to a long term shift increase in the share of aquaculture production and consumption.

× Fish play a major role in the Bangladesh food system. Fish production, processing and marketing are major source of incomes for many households, and fish consumption accounts for a significant share of protein consumption in the Bangladeshi diet. Moreover, fish production and consumption are growting rapidly, with the aquaculture subsector as a major driver of change of both supply and demand. In this paper, we present estimates of demand elasticities for four categories of fish (aquaculture, inland capture, mixed production, and marine) using a modified Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. These demand estimates are then used in projections of future supply and demand for these different types of fish under different productivity growth assumptions. Our results show that, at current rates of productivity increase, growth in fish production will outpace increases in demand from population and income growth, resulting a decline in real prices over time. A more rapid increase in productivity would lead to even larger supply increases and corresponding price declines. These effects are most keenly felt by the poorest households who see significant increases in fish consumption. Fish production from aquaculture is likely to have higher rates of productivity growth than the more extensive inland capture and marine systems, leading to a long term shift increase in the share of aquaculture production and consumption.

× Indonesia has managed to combine high rates of growth, rapid reductions in rural poverty and a significant structural transformation of its economy all at the same time without a big increase in urban manufacturing. Agriculture was a critical part of this transformation through two important channels. First, export-oriented agriculture, particularly palm oil and rubber contributed to rising foreign exchange receipts and helped make compatible rapid growth without balance of payments pressure on the macro economy. Second, through the release of workers from low productivity agriculture to more productive nonagricultural activities, structural change contributed between 25 and 50 percent of the rise in national labor productivity depending on the period. The government also played an important role in agricultural development and productivity growth. Public investments in irrigation in combination with subsidies for fertilizer and improved seeds increased agricultural productivity generating an adequate supply of food for domestic needs with less labor.

× Indonesia has managed to combine high rates of growth, rapid reductions in rural poverty and a significant structural transformation of its economy all at the same time without a big increase in urban manufacturing. Agriculture was a critical part of this transformation through two important channels. First, export-oriented agriculture, particularly palm oil and rubber contributed to rising foreign exchange receipts and helped make compatible rapid growth without balance of payments pressure on the macro economy. Second, through the release of workers from low productivity agriculture to more productive nonagricultural activities, structural change contributed between 25 and 50 percent of the rise in national labor productivity depending on the period. The government also played an important role in agricultural development and productivity growth. Public investments in irrigation in combination with subsidies for fertilizer and improved seeds increased agricultural productivity generating an adequate supply of food for domestic needs with less labor.

× Vietnam has experienced rapid growth in agricultural mechani-zation lately; particularly in the use of tractors and combine-harvesters. A recent IFPRI study documented the evolution of the growth of mechanization in Vietnam based on an extensive review of the existing literature and several rounds of a nationally repre-sentative household survey. The level of tractor use in Vietnam was relatively high in the 1970s and the early 1980s but declined through the late-1980s before it started taking off again in the 1990s. The relatively high level of tractor uses up to the early-1980s were partly due to political and military reasons, as both the West and the Soviet Union gave substantial support in providing heavy machinery, including tractors. In this note, we focus on the evolution of mechanization from 1990s to 2000s.

× Vietnam has experienced rapid growth in agricultural mechani-zation lately; particularly in the use of tractors and combine-harvesters. A recent IFPRI study documented the evolution of the growth of mechanization in Vietnam based on an extensive review of the existing literature and several rounds of a nationally repre-sentative household survey. The level of tractor use in Vietnam was relatively high in the 1970s and the early 1980s but declined through the late-1980s before it started taking off again in the 1990s. The relatively high level of tractor uses up to the early-1980s were partly due to political and military reasons, as both the West and the Soviet Union gave substantial support in providing heavy machinery, including tractors. In this note, we focus on the evolution of mechanization from 1990s to 2000s.

× Despite the reportedly rapid growth of mechanization, as well as its unique history in economic and social systems, information on the patterns of agricultural mechanization growth in Vietnam has been limited. Through an extensive review of existing literature and several rounds of nationally representative household survey data, we document the evolution of mechanization (particularly tractors and combine harvesters) in Vietnam, including the heterogeneity across regions and farm sizes, and the emerging roles of the private sector in the supply of machinery and hiring services.

× Despite the reportedly rapid growth of mechanization, as well as its unique history in economic and social systems, information on the patterns of agricultural mechanization growth in Vietnam has been limited. Through an extensive review of existing literature and several rounds of nationally representative household survey data, we document the evolution of mechanization (particularly tractors and combine harvesters) in Vietnam, including the heterogeneity across regions and farm sizes, and the emerging roles of the private sector in the supply of machinery and hiring services.

× This paper focuses on rural nonfarm development via the route of salaried employment. The analysis is at the rural household level for two types of households: “mixed” households whereby some workers remain in the farm sector and others pursue nonfarm activities and the rural households who are exclusively dependent on nonfarm employment (rural nonfarm). The study has produced three major findings. First, compared with the mixed or farm-only households, nonfarm households seem to have more income. Second, nonfarm households discourage unpaid work, especially among female workers, in sharp contrast to the increasing share of unpaid work in both farm and mixed households. Third, nonfarm households increasingly rely, for their livelihoods, on salaried employment, which is likely to be of a more durable nature than the juggling of multiple occupations observed in the case of mixed households. Analysis of possible factors influencing the formation of nonfarm households shows the importance of human capital, non-land assets, and proximity to larger towns, while natural shocks seem to encourage the formation of mixed households and remittance from abroad tends to stimulate the farm orientation.

× This paper focuses on rural nonfarm development via the route of salaried employment. The analysis is at the rural household level for two types of households: “mixed” households whereby some workers remain in the farm sector and others pursue nonfarm activities and the rural households who are exclusively dependent on nonfarm employment (rural nonfarm). The study has produced three major findings. First, compared with the mixed or farm-only households, nonfarm households seem to have more income. Second, nonfarm households discourage unpaid work, especially among female workers, in sharp contrast to the increasing share of unpaid work in both farm and mixed households. Third, nonfarm households increasingly rely, for their livelihoods, on salaried employment, which is likely to be of a more durable nature than the juggling of multiple occupations observed in the case of mixed households. Analysis of possible factors influencing the formation of nonfarm households shows the importance of human capital, non-land assets, and proximity to larger towns, while natural shocks seem to encourage the formation of mixed households and remittance from abroad tends to stimulate the farm orientation.

× In September 2015, Nepal’s Constituent Assembly passed a new constitution aimed at transforming Nepal from a unitary country into a federal republic with three levels of government: the federation, the province, and the local level. This institutional shift will have wide-ranging social, political, and economic implications for the country. However, this brief focuses specifically on the implications of these federal reforms for the agricultural sector and the Ministry of Agriculture (MoAD). Agriculture is the backbone of the Nepali economy, providing a livelihood for approximately two-thirds of the population, contributing one-third of the country’s GDP, and constituting over half of its exports. With greater authority and autonomy granted to more subnational units of government, ensuring that the agricul-tural sector is guided by coordinated planning, retains sufficient human capacity, and receives adequate fiscal resources will be of para-mount importance during the transition to a federal republic. Consequently, this brief addresses how the sector can be restructured to meet the constitutional provisions while simultaneously ensuring that MoAD delivers on its agricultural objectives, especially those out-lined in its Agricultural Development Strategy (ADS).

× In September 2015, Nepal’s Constituent Assembly passed a new constitution aimed at transforming Nepal from a unitary country into a federal republic with three levels of government: the federation, the province, and the local level. This institutional shift will have wide-ranging social, political, and economic implications for the country. However, this brief focuses specifically on the implications of these federal reforms for the agricultural sector and the Ministry of Agriculture (MoAD). Agriculture is the backbone of the Nepali economy, providing a livelihood for approximately two-thirds of the population, contributing one-third of the country’s GDP, and constituting over half of its exports. With greater authority and autonomy granted to more subnational units of government, ensuring that the agricul-tural sector is guided by coordinated planning, retains sufficient human capacity, and receives adequate fiscal resources will be of para-mount importance during the transition to a federal republic. Consequently, this brief addresses how the sector can be restructured to meet the constitutional provisions while simultaneously ensuring that MoAD delivers on its agricultural objectives, especially those out-lined in its Agricultural Development Strategy (ADS).

× The agricultural sector of Asian middle-income countries is changing rapidly in line with an overall structural transformation of the economy brought about by economic growth. Dr. David Dawe of FAO discussed the changes taking place throughout Asia related to this agricultural transformation in his keynote address at the ReSAKSS-Asia event entitled “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. This brief summarizes some of the main points of his presentation while a more detailed discussion can be found in his earlier FAO working paper (Dawe, 2015).

× The agricultural sector of Asian middle-income countries is changing rapidly in line with an overall structural transformation of the economy brought about by economic growth. Dr. David Dawe of FAO discussed the changes taking place throughout Asia related to this agricultural transformation in his keynote address at the ReSAKSS-Asia event entitled “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. This brief summarizes some of the main points of his presentation while a more detailed discussion can be found in his earlier FAO working paper (Dawe, 2015).

× Mechanization increases the power applied to agricultural operations and is one tool among many for improving farm productivity. It alone cannot drive the transformation of agriculture (Pingali 2007). Farmers will mechanize to lower costs and ensure timeliness of operations, allowing a greater area of land to be cultivated. The demand for mechanization is therefore determined by the stage of agricultural transformation reflecting the use of complementary inputs (improved seeds, fertilizer), the intensity of farming, land hold-ings, and rural labor supply. Countries across developing Asia have mechanized at different rates corresponding to their level of agricul-tural transformation but also strongly influenced by government policies. ReSAKSS-Asia organized a knowledge exchange event entitled “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Fu-ture Opportunities” to discuss, among many topics, insights into how agricultural mechanization has evolved in countries with different agroecological, institutional and political settings, and what common lessons can be learned for those countries at the early stage of mechanization. This brief summarizes some of the key lessons shared by participants.

× Mechanization increases the power applied to agricultural operations and is one tool among many for improving farm productivity. It alone cannot drive the transformation of agriculture (Pingali 2007). Farmers will mechanize to lower costs and ensure timeliness of operations, allowing a greater area of land to be cultivated. The demand for mechanization is therefore determined by the stage of agricultural transformation reflecting the use of complementary inputs (improved seeds, fertilizer), the intensity of farming, land hold-ings, and rural labor supply. Countries across developing Asia have mechanized at different rates corresponding to their level of agricul-tural transformation but also strongly influenced by government policies. ReSAKSS-Asia organized a knowledge exchange event entitled “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Fu-ture Opportunities” to discuss, among many topics, insights into how agricultural mechanization has evolved in countries with different agroecological, institutional and political settings, and what common lessons can be learned for those countries at the early stage of mechanization. This brief summarizes some of the key lessons shared by participants.

× This brief evaluates the extent of agricultural mechanization in four townships in Myanmar’s Dry Zone. It provides evidence that rapid mechanization is underway. Mechanical land preparation is now common-place, due to thriving machine rental markets, falling equip-ment prices, and better financing options. The mechanization of harvesting and threshing is also occurring but is concentrated in rice. These findings suggest that Dry Zone agriculture is at a technological crossroads.

× This brief evaluates the extent of agricultural mechanization in four townships in Myanmar’s Dry Zone. It provides evidence that rapid mechanization is underway. Mechanical land preparation is now common-place, due to thriving machine rental markets, falling equip-ment prices, and better financing options. The mechanization of harvesting and threshing is also occurring but is concentrated in rice. These findings suggest that Dry Zone agriculture is at a technological crossroads.

× The Thai broiler industry is an innovative and successful story of transformation from a traditional “backyard” production system to a fully industrialized agri-industry. It is among the first agricultural products in Thailand that developed into a modern value chain that is fully integrated and able to expand its production to keep prices in check whilst making chicken the go-to source of protein. Highlighted by its expansion into regional and global markets through trades and investments, the success of the industry is largely a result of strong and visionary business models that calculated risks yet were clear on their objectives on how to secure emerging markets. This paper describes the development of the Thai broiler industry, documenting its path and reasons behind its success. Focus is particularly placed on the Thai industry’s leader, Charoen Pokphand Group (C.P.), and its business decisions over the years that enabled the company to gain a foothold in the highly competitive international market for chicken meat.

× The Thai broiler industry is an innovative and successful story of transformation from a traditional “backyard” production system to a fully industrialized agri-industry. It is among the first agricultural products in Thailand that developed into a modern value chain that is fully integrated and able to expand its production to keep prices in check whilst making chicken the go-to source of protein. Highlighted by its expansion into regional and global markets through trades and investments, the success of the industry is largely a result of strong and visionary business models that calculated risks yet were clear on their objectives on how to secure emerging markets. This paper describes the development of the Thai broiler industry, documenting its path and reasons behind its success. Focus is particularly placed on the Thai industry’s leader, Charoen Pokphand Group (C.P.), and its business decisions over the years that enabled the company to gain a foothold in the highly competitive international market for chicken meat.

× The paper argues that much of the farm-nonfarm labor mobility in rural Bangladesh is in nature an intergenerational occupational choice-induced change rather than a sectoral shift within the current generation. Bangladesh has a large share of youth (aged 15-29 years) in the labor force, and it experienced a major structural shift in employment between 1995 and 2010 as agricultural employment fell from 51.4 percent to 42.3 percent. Much of this shift has been due to changes in youth employment, as youth employment in agriculture fell from 49.8 percent to 33.1 percent. The cohort analysis (pseudo-panel) shows that the reduction in the share of male youth population working in agriculture is due mainly to a sharp reduction in the percentage of youth who start out in agriculture, rather than a shift by individuals from agricultural to non-agricultural employment during their life time. Analysis of correlates of the non-farm orientation of rural youth indicates the importance of gender, human capital, access to electricity, proximity to cities, and migration opportunities. The results suggest the importance for supporting rural industry and service activities for meeting the future demand of jobs for the rural youth.

× The paper argues that much of the farm-nonfarm labor mobility in rural Bangladesh is in nature an intergenerational occupational choice-induced change rather than a sectoral shift within the current generation. Bangladesh has a large share of youth (aged 15-29 years) in the labor force, and it experienced a major structural shift in employment between 1995 and 2010 as agricultural employment fell from 51.4 percent to 42.3 percent. Much of this shift has been due to changes in youth employment, as youth employment in agriculture fell from 49.8 percent to 33.1 percent. The cohort analysis (pseudo-panel) shows that the reduction in the share of male youth population working in agriculture is due mainly to a sharp reduction in the percentage of youth who start out in agriculture, rather than a shift by individuals from agricultural to non-agricultural employment during their life time. Analysis of correlates of the non-farm orientation of rural youth indicates the importance of gender, human capital, access to electricity, proximity to cities, and migration opportunities. The results suggest the importance for supporting rural industry and service activities for meeting the future demand of jobs for the rural youth.

× This review evaluates the role of the state in development, offering a new framework for understanding what capabilities states need to overcome different types of market failures. This framework is employed to understand the successes and failures of state-led development in Malaysia. The review addresses three key questions. First, what do we know about developmental states and why they emerged? Second, what have developmental states achieved? In answering this question, I look not only at growth but also at structural transformation, economic “upgrading,” equity, and human capability enhancement. In contrast to the idea of a single “East Asian model” of development, I find five distinct development trajectories. Third, how did developmental states utilize state structures to pursue development? To answer this final question, I examine in depth the history of state-led development in Malaysia—including agricultural, industrial, and social policies. This case study sheds light on what specific institutional and political capacities helped Malaysia to improve productivity in agriculture, expand the manufacturing sector, and reduce inequality. It also explores why Malaysia has been less successful in developing linkages with the export-based manufacturing sector.

× This review evaluates the role of the state in development, offering a new framework for understanding what capabilities states need to overcome different types of market failures. This framework is employed to understand the successes and failures of state-led development in Malaysia. The review addresses three key questions. First, what do we know about developmental states and why they emerged? Second, what have developmental states achieved? In answering this question, I look not only at growth but also at structural transformation, economic “upgrading,” equity, and human capability enhancement. In contrast to the idea of a single “East Asian model” of development, I find five distinct development trajectories. Third, how did developmental states utilize state structures to pursue development? To answer this final question, I examine in depth the history of state-led development in Malaysia—including agricultural, industrial, and social policies. This case study sheds light on what specific institutional and political capacities helped Malaysia to improve productivity in agriculture, expand the manufacturing sector, and reduce inequality. It also explores why Malaysia has been less successful in developing linkages with the export-based manufacturing sector.

× This paper examines the fertilizer subsidy program in Nepal from two different angles, both important for policy makers in the country. First, it analyzes who is benefiting from the program, and second, it examines how farmers rank the importance of public spending on fertilizer subsidies compared with other potential public investments. Whereas the former question is important for judging whether the program is meeting its objectives, the latter is essential to understanding the scope for reform, in particular the extent to which we could expect citizens to resist reforms to the subsidy program. We draw on these analyses as well as on examples from other countries to make policy recommendations to improve program implementation.

× This paper examines the fertilizer subsidy program in Nepal from two different angles, both important for policy makers in the country. First, it analyzes who is benefiting from the program, and second, it examines how farmers rank the importance of public spending on fertilizer subsidies compared with other potential public investments. Whereas the former question is important for judging whether the program is meeting its objectives, the latter is essential to understanding the scope for reform, in particular the extent to which we could expect citizens to resist reforms to the subsidy program. We draw on these analyses as well as on examples from other countries to make policy recommendations to improve program implementation.

× Past agricultural mechanization efforts in Ghana and Nigeria have focused more on the styles of machinery used in western countries or Latin America, where average farm sizes are much larger. While West African countries, particularly Ghana, are still relatively land abundant compared to Bangladesh, seeking the right balance across various models is important for achieving mechanization growth across diverse types of farms. Learning from the experience of agricultural mechanization in Bangladesh offer useful inspirations toward how widespread mechanization growth can happen for smallholders in Ghana and Nigeria.

× Past agricultural mechanization efforts in Ghana and Nigeria have focused more on the styles of machinery used in western countries or Latin America, where average farm sizes are much larger. While West African countries, particularly Ghana, are still relatively land abundant compared to Bangladesh, seeking the right balance across various models is important for achieving mechanization growth across diverse types of farms. Learning from the experience of agricultural mechanization in Bangladesh offer useful inspirations toward how widespread mechanization growth can happen for smallholders in Ghana and Nigeria.

× In this paper we explore the implications of Nepal’s new federal Constitution—passed in September 2015—for governance of the agricultural sector. Agriculture is the backbone of the Nepali economy, providing a livelihood for approximately two-thirds of the population, contributing one-third of the country’s GDP, and constituting more than half of the country’s exports. In transitioning from a unitary to a federal republic—with greater authority and autonomy granted to subnational units of government—it is of paramount importance to ensure that the agricultural sector is guided by coordinated planning, retains sufficient human capacity, and receives adequate fiscal resources. These considerations are particularly important given that the governance of Nepal’s agricultural sector already suffers from poor coordination, low human resources capacity, and inadequate financial resources. Addressing these issues may become more difficult under a federal structure. This paper begins by laying out the main challenges for agricultural governance in Nepal under the current structure. To do so, it relies on an original survey of 100 district agricultural and livestock officers in charge of local agricultural service delivery in Nepal as well as perspectives collected through more than two dozen semi-structured interviews with officials from the Ministry of Agricultural Development, the Ministry of Livestock Development, civil society, the private sector, and donors. Because Nepal is embarking on a pathway to more decentralized governance, which has been well-trodden by a number of other countries, the paper proceeds by examining five case studies, drawing lessons from India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, and South Africa. Based on these analyses, the paper offers policy recommendations on how the sector can be restructured to meet the constitutional provisions, while simultaneously ensuring that the government can deliver on its long-term objectives to develop the agricultural sector.

× In this paper we explore the implications of Nepal’s new federal Constitution—passed in September 2015—for governance of the agricultural sector. Agriculture is the backbone of the Nepali economy, providing a livelihood for approximately two-thirds of the population, contributing one-third of the country’s GDP, and constituting more than half of the country’s exports. In transitioning from a unitary to a federal republic—with greater authority and autonomy granted to subnational units of government—it is of paramount importance to ensure that the agricultural sector is guided by coordinated planning, retains sufficient human capacity, and receives adequate fiscal resources. These considerations are particularly important given that the governance of Nepal’s agricultural sector already suffers from poor coordination, low human resources capacity, and inadequate financial resources. Addressing these issues may become more difficult under a federal structure. This paper begins by laying out the main challenges for agricultural governance in Nepal under the current structure. To do so, it relies on an original survey of 100 district agricultural and livestock officers in charge of local agricultural service delivery in Nepal as well as perspectives collected through more than two dozen semi-structured interviews with officials from the Ministry of Agricultural Development, the Ministry of Livestock Development, civil society, the private sector, and donors. Because Nepal is embarking on a pathway to more decentralized governance, which has been well-trodden by a number of other countries, the paper proceeds by examining five case studies, drawing lessons from India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, and South Africa. Based on these analyses, the paper offers policy recommendations on how the sector can be restructured to meet the constitutional provisions, while simultaneously ensuring that the government can deliver on its long-term objectives to develop the agricultural sector.

× This paper reviews the agricultural policy environment in Myanmar up until 2014 with an eye towards identifying policies that can help to accelerate productivity and profitability in the agricultural sector. We draw heavily on the Framework for Economic and Social Reform (FESR) (2012) which provides the policy intents of the government both overall and at a sectoral level. Although limited, in some instances we rely on government data which is publically available only up until 2010. This paper primarily examines the evolution of input policies and their measures of implementation, i.e. those focused on farm inputs (land management; finance; water management; research, education and extension services; rural electrification; seeds; fertilizer and mechanization). We also provide a brief overview of policies which affect farm diversification (including rice productivity and crop diversification) and output policies including policies related to post-farmgate processing; logistics and transport; wholesale markets; and broad macro-economic and trade policy.

× This paper reviews the agricultural policy environment in Myanmar up until 2014 with an eye towards identifying policies that can help to accelerate productivity and profitability in the agricultural sector. We draw heavily on the Framework for Economic and Social Reform (FESR) (2012) which provides the policy intents of the government both overall and at a sectoral level. Although limited, in some instances we rely on government data which is publically available only up until 2010. This paper primarily examines the evolution of input policies and their measures of implementation, i.e. those focused on farm inputs (land management; finance; water management; research, education and extension services; rural electrification; seeds; fertilizer and mechanization). We also provide a brief overview of policies which affect farm diversification (including rice productivity and crop diversification) and output policies including policies related to post-farmgate processing; logistics and transport; wholesale markets; and broad macro-economic and trade policy.

× This brief aims to identify the factors contributing to low certified seed use by evaluating the evolution of rice seed varieties, analyzing the trends in seed adoption, and describing the Philippine seed system and its regulatory structure. It concludes with a summary of these issues leading to key recommendations to improve and strengthen the rice seed industry.

× This brief aims to identify the factors contributing to low certified seed use by evaluating the evolution of rice seed varieties, analyzing the trends in seed adoption, and describing the Philippine seed system and its regulatory structure. It concludes with a summary of these issues leading to key recommendations to improve and strengthen the rice seed industry.

× Approximately 70 percent of the population of Myanmar lives in rural areas and 60 percent of the workforce is involved in agriculture. It is estimated that agriculture contributes to 36 percent of the GDP and 20 percent of the foreign exchange earnings for Myanmar. While agriculture is important for growth in Myanmar, it is primarily rain-fed so agricultural growth is erratic. Due to small farm sizes, increasing food production is dependent on improved policies and technologies that can increase output per hectare. One of the main policy objectives of the Government of Myanmar is to increase food security and the quantity, quality, and variety of crops through partnerships and private sector investment. Improving the private sector participation in the trade and distribution of fertilizer has the potential to reduce fertilizer costs and increase their usage and thus improving farm productivity and food security.

× Approximately 70 percent of the population of Myanmar lives in rural areas and 60 percent of the workforce is involved in agriculture. It is estimated that agriculture contributes to 36 percent of the GDP and 20 percent of the foreign exchange earnings for Myanmar. While agriculture is important for growth in Myanmar, it is primarily rain-fed so agricultural growth is erratic. Due to small farm sizes, increasing food production is dependent on improved policies and technologies that can increase output per hectare. One of the main policy objectives of the Government of Myanmar is to increase food security and the quantity, quality, and variety of crops through partnerships and private sector investment. Improving the private sector participation in the trade and distribution of fertilizer has the potential to reduce fertilizer costs and increase their usage and thus improving farm productivity and food security.

× The Philippines is an island nation, comprised of 7,107 islands that are split into 3 geographical divisions: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. In 2013, agriculture contributed 10.45 percent to GDP (PSA-NSCB, 2014) and 31 percent to employment (PSA-BLES, 2014). More im-portantly, its contribution to national and household food security is significant. Cereal production increased from 7.6 million tons in 1970 to 22.1 million tons in 2010. During the same period, fertilizer use increased from 201,000 nutrient tons to 771,000 nutrient tons (FAOSTAT). In promoting cereal production, especially rice production, increased fertilizer use, along with improved seeds and other agronomic practices, played a key role.

× The Philippines is an island nation, comprised of 7,107 islands that are split into 3 geographical divisions: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. In 2013, agriculture contributed 10.45 percent to GDP (PSA-NSCB, 2014) and 31 percent to employment (PSA-BLES, 2014). More im-portantly, its contribution to national and household food security is significant. Cereal production increased from 7.6 million tons in 1970 to 22.1 million tons in 2010. During the same period, fertilizer use increased from 201,000 nutrient tons to 771,000 nutrient tons (FAOSTAT). In promoting cereal production, especially rice production, increased fertilizer use, along with improved seeds and other agronomic practices, played a key role.

× The Republic of Kyrgyzstan is a landlocked country where nearly 65 percent of the population lives in rural areas. Wheat is the staple crop in Kyrgyzstan; however, average wheat yields were just 2.4 metric tons (MT)/ha as of 2013, which is well below potential yield estimates of 5.5 MT/ ha. The country is classified by the UN FAO as a low-income, food-deficit country that relies on wheat imports from Kazakhstan and Russia to cover 25 percent of its consumption requirements. Agriculture contributes 20.8 percent of GDP and more than 1 million smallholder households are involved in the agriculture sector. Agriculture in the northern region of the country is more industrialized, with farm activities fully mechanized compared to the southern region. The south is highly populated, but the availability of arable land is limited.

× The Republic of Kyrgyzstan is a landlocked country where nearly 65 percent of the population lives in rural areas. Wheat is the staple crop in Kyrgyzstan; however, average wheat yields were just 2.4 metric tons (MT)/ha as of 2013, which is well below potential yield estimates of 5.5 MT/ ha. The country is classified by the UN FAO as a low-income, food-deficit country that relies on wheat imports from Kazakhstan and Russia to cover 25 percent of its consumption requirements. Agriculture contributes 20.8 percent of GDP and more than 1 million smallholder households are involved in the agriculture sector. Agriculture in the northern region of the country is more industrialized, with farm activities fully mechanized compared to the southern region. The south is highly populated, but the availability of arable land is limited.

× Indonesia is an archipelago consisting of 13,466 islands, which are divided into 33 provinces. Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara are the inner islands and contain 62 percent of the total population of 246 million, but only accounts for 8 percent of the total land area. The inner islands are naturally more fertile than the outer islands that have nutrient-poor, acidic soils. In theory, fertilizer use should be higher on the outer islands, but in reality outer island fertilizer use is generally lower, making crop yields lower, especially when compared to Java. There are approximately 15 million farmer households in Indonesia cultivating rice and 6.7 million cultivating maize. Approxi-mately 68 percent of rice farmers and 37 percent of maize farmers use chemical fertilizers, according to the 2009 Agriculture Census.

× Indonesia is an archipelago consisting of 13,466 islands, which are divided into 33 provinces. Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara are the inner islands and contain 62 percent of the total population of 246 million, but only accounts for 8 percent of the total land area. The inner islands are naturally more fertile than the outer islands that have nutrient-poor, acidic soils. In theory, fertilizer use should be higher on the outer islands, but in reality outer island fertilizer use is generally lower, making crop yields lower, especially when compared to Java. There are approximately 15 million farmer households in Indonesia cultivating rice and 6.7 million cultivating maize. Approxi-mately 68 percent of rice farmers and 37 percent of maize farmers use chemical fertilizers, according to the 2009 Agriculture Census.

× Although agriculture only contributes 20 percent to GDP in Vietnam, over 70 percent of the population relies on the sector. Rice is the most important crop in Vietnam accounting for 90 percent of total grain output. The agricultural sector has faced recent challenges due to urbanization and industrialization, as well as few opportunities for increasing cultivated land area. Increased crop yields through the use of chemical fertilizer is one of the few methods available for increasing agricultural output.

× Although agriculture only contributes 20 percent to GDP in Vietnam, over 70 percent of the population relies on the sector. Rice is the most important crop in Vietnam accounting for 90 percent of total grain output. The agricultural sector has faced recent challenges due to urbanization and industrialization, as well as few opportunities for increasing cultivated land area. Increased crop yields through the use of chemical fertilizer is one of the few methods available for increasing agricultural output.

× Nepal is a landlocked country with wide diversity of climatic conditions, ranging from temperate to tropical. Agriculture is the largest economic sector, contributing 35 percent to GDP and employing two thirds of the total population. Rice is the major staple crop, fol-lowed by maize, wheat, and pulses. These crops are spread across three ecological belts: Hills (42 percent of land area), Mountain (33 percent), and Terai (23 percent). Nepal, once self-sufficient in food, has become a net importer in recent years. Farm size has declined from 1.1 hectares in 1995/1996 to 0.7 hectares in 2010/2011, and 53 percent of households have less than 0.5 hectares. Although the agriculture sector is the most important for the sustainable development of Nepal, its growth rate is low, mainly because of low govern-ment investment. Despite the efforts to disseminate improved seeds, national yields of the three main cereal crops remain low: (rice 3.3 t/ha, wheat 2.4 t/ha, and maize 2.5 t/ha).

× Nepal is a landlocked country with wide diversity of climatic conditions, ranging from temperate to tropical. Agriculture is the largest economic sector, contributing 35 percent to GDP and employing two thirds of the total population. Rice is the major staple crop, fol-lowed by maize, wheat, and pulses. These crops are spread across three ecological belts: Hills (42 percent of land area), Mountain (33 percent), and Terai (23 percent). Nepal, once self-sufficient in food, has become a net importer in recent years. Farm size has declined from 1.1 hectares in 1995/1996 to 0.7 hectares in 2010/2011, and 53 percent of households have less than 0.5 hectares. Although the agriculture sector is the most important for the sustainable development of Nepal, its growth rate is low, mainly because of low govern-ment investment. Despite the efforts to disseminate improved seeds, national yields of the three main cereal crops remain low: (rice 3.3 t/ha, wheat 2.4 t/ha, and maize 2.5 t/ha).

× Seed provision in Pakistan is experiencing tension as private entrepreneurs have been challenging the boundaries of the country’s ar-chaic regulatory structure. All key aspects of the system – licensing of seed producers, variety release procedures, access to public germplasm, quality control, intellectual property rights, and import and export –are governed by laws and regulations framed decades ago for a system then dominated by public sector enterprises. Since the early 1980s, the private seed business has grown but govern-ance has failed to keep pace. The failure of regulatory frameworks to evolve has constrained business activity, at least through official channels. Most actors, including some public sector enterprises, have on occasion found answers in the informal sector, which now mediates a substantial portion of the trade.

× Seed provision in Pakistan is experiencing tension as private entrepreneurs have been challenging the boundaries of the country’s ar-chaic regulatory structure. All key aspects of the system – licensing of seed producers, variety release procedures, access to public germplasm, quality control, intellectual property rights, and import and export –are governed by laws and regulations framed decades ago for a system then dominated by public sector enterprises. Since the early 1980s, the private seed business has grown but govern-ance has failed to keep pace. The failure of regulatory frameworks to evolve has constrained business activity, at least through official channels. Most actors, including some public sector enterprises, have on occasion found answers in the informal sector, which now mediates a substantial portion of the trade.

× For the last three decades, Vietnam’s agricultural sector has undergone continuous and impressive change. Having recently transi-tioned from a planned economy, the private seed industry has only recently begun to emerge and the legislation which governs it is new. Policy reform, which began in 1981, culminated in 1988 with the liberalization of input and output marketing. These changes en-gendered institutional transformation and resulted in significant development of the agricultural sector, especially rice production. Paddy output increased from 12 million tons in 1980 to 44 million tons in 2012. Since 1989, Vietnam has been a rice exporter and in 1997 the country became the second largest rice exporter in the world. Current exports average 6-7 million tons per year.

× For the last three decades, Vietnam’s agricultural sector has undergone continuous and impressive change. Having recently transi-tioned from a planned economy, the private seed industry has only recently begun to emerge and the legislation which governs it is new. Policy reform, which began in 1981, culminated in 1988 with the liberalization of input and output marketing. These changes en-gendered institutional transformation and resulted in significant development of the agricultural sector, especially rice production. Paddy output increased from 12 million tons in 1980 to 44 million tons in 2012. Since 1989, Vietnam has been a rice exporter and in 1997 the country became the second largest rice exporter in the world. Current exports average 6-7 million tons per year.

× Agriculture, including fisheries and forestry, accounted for 36.4 percent of Myanmar’s GDP in 2010-2011. Approximately 69 percent of the total population of 59.78 million (2010-2011) lives in rural areas and 61.2 percent of the total labor force is employed by the agricul-ture sector (MOAI 2012). The government has designated the agriculture sector as a main pillar of the economy and is dedicating vari-ous efforts and investments to achieve greater progress in the sector. Rice is the primary crop, followed by maize, pulses, and oil seeds. Over 90 percent of the total rice sown in Myanmar1 is done so by farmers’ reusing their seeds. Hybrid varieties of maize are grown more widely in part due to domestic hybrid production and imports. In recent years, there has also been an increase in the production of fruits and vegetables due to demand from China as well as the emergence of supermarkets in the country which has also increased the utilization of quality seeds and seedlings.

× Agriculture, including fisheries and forestry, accounted for 36.4 percent of Myanmar’s GDP in 2010-2011. Approximately 69 percent of the total population of 59.78 million (2010-2011) lives in rural areas and 61.2 percent of the total labor force is employed by the agricul-ture sector (MOAI 2012). The government has designated the agriculture sector as a main pillar of the economy and is dedicating vari-ous efforts and investments to achieve greater progress in the sector. Rice is the primary crop, followed by maize, pulses, and oil seeds. Over 90 percent of the total rice sown in Myanmar1 is done so by farmers’ reusing their seeds. Hybrid varieties of maize are grown more widely in part due to domestic hybrid production and imports. In recent years, there has also been an increase in the production of fruits and vegetables due to demand from China as well as the emergence of supermarkets in the country which has also increased the utilization of quality seeds and seedlings.

× Fertilizer use in Thailand has become an integral part of agriculture due to the declining availability of arable land and the increasing role of rice and other agricultural exports in the economy. Approximately 47 percent fertilizer is used on rice, production of which has increased from 13.4 million MT to 36 million MT from 1970 to 2010 coinciding with a rise in fertilizer consumption from .2 million MT to 2.6 million MT. However, Thailand has a limited supply of raw materials for fertilizer and therefore imports both raw materials and pre-compounded grades for domestic production and distribution. This brief reviews the Thai fertilizer sector and the changes in policy which have led to its growth.

× Fertilizer use in Thailand has become an integral part of agriculture due to the declining availability of arable land and the increasing role of rice and other agricultural exports in the economy. Approximately 47 percent fertilizer is used on rice, production of which has increased from 13.4 million MT to 36 million MT from 1970 to 2010 coinciding with a rise in fertilizer consumption from .2 million MT to 2.6 million MT. However, Thailand has a limited supply of raw materials for fertilizer and therefore imports both raw materials and pre-compounded grades for domestic production and distribution. This brief reviews the Thai fertilizer sector and the changes in policy which have led to its growth.

× This policy brief will provide an analysis of the maize seed industry’s current state and future prospects, prefacing that with a review of the historical context under which it emerged. Lessons learned from this sector could have implications for the development of the seed industry in other developing countries.

× This policy brief will provide an analysis of the maize seed industry’s current state and future prospects, prefacing that with a review of the historical context under which it emerged. Lessons learned from this sector could have implications for the development of the seed industry in other developing countries.

× The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in Cambodia’s economy, and accounts for approximately 27.3 percent of GDP. Crop cultiva-tion on Cambodia’s 4 million ha of agricultural land has become more challenging with each passing year due to low soil fertility (White et al., 1997). Fertilizer application is crucial for nutrient replenishment, increased crop yield and elevated crop biomass which is necessary for moisture retention and nutrient efficiency (Bumb, 1996). Cambodia expects a large proportion of improved crop produc-tion to derive from increasing crop yields, and fertilizer is expected to play a major part in meeting future demands for crop intensifica-tion and greater food security (RGC 2010).

× The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in Cambodia’s economy, and accounts for approximately 27.3 percent of GDP. Crop cultiva-tion on Cambodia’s 4 million ha of agricultural land has become more challenging with each passing year due to low soil fertility (White et al., 1997). Fertilizer application is crucial for nutrient replenishment, increased crop yield and elevated crop biomass which is necessary for moisture retention and nutrient efficiency (Bumb, 1996). Cambodia expects a large proportion of improved crop produc-tion to derive from increasing crop yields, and fertilizer is expected to play a major part in meeting future demands for crop intensifica-tion and greater food security (RGC 2010).

× Due to internal conflicts and civil war, the green revolution largely passed by Cambodia without having a significant effect on rice production. With an estimated population of 14.7 million, 80 percent of which are rural and most dependent on agriculture as their main source of income, rice productivity is of critical importance in a country where more than 30 percent of the population still lives below the national poverty line. The lift of the economic embargo on Cambodia in 1993 opened the country up to greater integration with the sub-regional, regional and global cooperation networks and has led to significant agricultural and economic progress. In addition, peace allowed for an expansion of cultivation area from 1.9 million hectares in 1990 to 3 million hectares today.

× Due to internal conflicts and civil war, the green revolution largely passed by Cambodia without having a significant effect on rice production. With an estimated population of 14.7 million, 80 percent of which are rural and most dependent on agriculture as their main source of income, rice productivity is of critical importance in a country where more than 30 percent of the population still lives below the national poverty line. The lift of the economic embargo on Cambodia in 1993 opened the country up to greater integration with the sub-regional, regional and global cooperation networks and has led to significant agricultural and economic progress. In addition, peace allowed for an expansion of cultivation area from 1.9 million hectares in 1990 to 3 million hectares today.

× The contribution of chemical fertilizers towards increased agricultural production is well established. Indian agricultural policy focused on increasing productivity and modern inputs such as improved seeds (HYVs), irrigation, chemical fertilizers, etc. have played an important role in increasing crop production and productivity. Increased fertilizer use will continue to play an important role in increasing agricultural productivity given the diminishing land available for cultivation. Therefore, it is important to understand fertilizer use patterns and efficiency over time, the changing structure of fertilizer markets, the current policy environment and the role of various factors influencing fertilizer consumption. This brief is an attempt to address some of these issues

× The contribution of chemical fertilizers towards increased agricultural production is well established. Indian agricultural policy focused on increasing productivity and modern inputs such as improved seeds (HYVs), irrigation, chemical fertilizers, etc. have played an important role in increasing crop production and productivity. Increased fertilizer use will continue to play an important role in increasing agricultural productivity given the diminishing land available for cultivation. Therefore, it is important to understand fertilizer use patterns and efficiency over time, the changing structure of fertilizer markets, the current policy environment and the role of various factors influencing fertilizer consumption. This brief is an attempt to address some of these issues

× Nepal is a landlocked country, surrounded by India and China with long borders. All merchandise trade, including fertilize trade, is transited through India. Because of its geopolitical location and agroecological conditions, Nepal faces unique challenges in developing a well-functioning fertilizer market. The main objective of this policy brief is to highlight the difficulties a landlocked country faces in procuring fertilizers and the externalities it encounters from neighboring countries fertilizer polices in promoting efficient fertilizer use and supply.

× Nepal is a landlocked country, surrounded by India and China with long borders. All merchandise trade, including fertilize trade, is transited through India. Because of its geopolitical location and agroecological conditions, Nepal faces unique challenges in developing a well-functioning fertilizer market. The main objective of this policy brief is to highlight the difficulties a landlocked country faces in procuring fertilizers and the externalities it encounters from neighboring countries fertilizer polices in promoting efficient fertilizer use and supply.

× Our ability to select desirable biological characteristics of plants through applications of modern science creates remarkable abundance in agriculture and is also the uncomplicated reason why many governments in industrialized and developing countries have historically invested in improving cultivated crop varieties (“cultivars”) through applications of modern science. When combined with other modern inputs and good crop management practices, improved cultivars can enhance crop yields significantly and subsequently drive agricultural productivity growth (Evenson and Gollin 2003; Rosegrant and Hazell 2000; Rosegrant and Evenson 1992).

× Our ability to select desirable biological characteristics of plants through applications of modern science creates remarkable abundance in agriculture and is also the uncomplicated reason why many governments in industrialized and developing countries have historically invested in improving cultivated crop varieties (“cultivars”) through applications of modern science. When combined with other modern inputs and good crop management practices, improved cultivars can enhance crop yields significantly and subsequently drive agricultural productivity growth (Evenson and Gollin 2003; Rosegrant and Hazell 2000; Rosegrant and Evenson 1992).

× Indonesian agriculture has experienced a significant structural transformation in the past four decades. The growth performance of the agricultural sector remains a moderate 4.0 percent per year in 2012, a significant increase from a 2.9 percent growth right after the global financial crisis in 2010. The performance of agricultural growth is the second lowest after the mining sector’s growth of 1.5 per-cent. Agricultural performance is obviously lower than that of the manufacturing and service sectors, achieving 5.7 percent and 8.1 percent growth, respectively. The estate crops, fisheries, and food crops sectors have contributed to agricultural growth performance, mostly because the world price of such important commodities remains high, contributing significantly to the added value of agricul-tural sectors. However, in view of the quality of growth argument, a 4.0 percent growth is simply not adequate to generate more em-ployment and alleviate poverty.

× Indonesian agriculture has experienced a significant structural transformation in the past four decades. The growth performance of the agricultural sector remains a moderate 4.0 percent per year in 2012, a significant increase from a 2.9 percent growth right after the global financial crisis in 2010. The performance of agricultural growth is the second lowest after the mining sector’s growth of 1.5 per-cent. Agricultural performance is obviously lower than that of the manufacturing and service sectors, achieving 5.7 percent and 8.1 percent growth, respectively. The estate crops, fisheries, and food crops sectors have contributed to agricultural growth performance, mostly because the world price of such important commodities remains high, contributing significantly to the added value of agricul-tural sectors. However, in view of the quality of growth argument, a 4.0 percent growth is simply not adequate to generate more em-ployment and alleviate poverty.

× This paper provides the history of development; an analysis of the current industry’s structure, conduct, and performance; and a review of related regulations of the maize seed industry in Thailand. The lessons learned from the success of the maize seed industry in Thailand could provide implications for the development of the seed industry in other developing countries

× This paper provides the history of development; an analysis of the current industry’s structure, conduct, and performance; and a review of related regulations of the maize seed industry in Thailand. The lessons learned from the success of the maize seed industry in Thailand could provide implications for the development of the seed industry in other developing countries

× Fertilizer policy in the country has evolved from pervasive interventionism in the 1970s to today's market-oriented regime. Government has abandoned price policies and subsidies, focusing rather on standard-setting, quality regulation, and train-ing. Over the same period domestic demand for fertilizer has continually been increasing, though recently resurgent fertilizer prices has reduced total utilization. Evidence suggests that farmers are under-applying fertilizer, thereby forfeiting efficiency gains at the margin. On the supply side, imports have in the past few decades emerged as the main source of fertilizer, as domestic production has dwindled. With deregulation, numerous private sector players have taken over the distribution of fertilizers; analysis of the supply chain points to low marketing margins. Integration analysis fails to find systematic arbitrage opportunities between the domestic and world markets. Within the domestic market however, there remain large disparities in prices across regions. Priorities for research and policy are therefore understanding the behavior of farmers in terms of fertilizer application, and addressing internal price disparities, perhaps by improved transport infrastructure and logistics.

× Fertilizer policy in the country has evolved from pervasive interventionism in the 1970s to today's market-oriented regime. Government has abandoned price policies and subsidies, focusing rather on standard-setting, quality regulation, and train-ing. Over the same period domestic demand for fertilizer has continually been increasing, though recently resurgent fertilizer prices has reduced total utilization. Evidence suggests that farmers are under-applying fertilizer, thereby forfeiting efficiency gains at the margin. On the supply side, imports have in the past few decades emerged as the main source of fertilizer, as domestic production has dwindled. With deregulation, numerous private sector players have taken over the distribution of fertilizers; analysis of the supply chain points to low marketing margins. Integration analysis fails to find systematic arbitrage opportunities between the domestic and world markets. Within the domestic market however, there remain large disparities in prices across regions. Priorities for research and policy are therefore understanding the behavior of farmers in terms of fertilizer application, and addressing internal price disparities, perhaps by improved transport infrastructure and logistics.

× The role of chemical fertilizers for increased agricultural production, particularly in developing countries such as India, is well estab-lished. Some argue that fertilizer was as important as seed in the Green Revolution (Tomich et. al. 1995), contributing as much as 50 percent to the yield growth in Asia (Hopper 1993, FAO 1998). Others have found that one-third of worldwide cereal production is due to the use of fertilizer and related factors of production (Bumb 1995).

× The role of chemical fertilizers for increased agricultural production, particularly in developing countries such as India, is well estab-lished. Some argue that fertilizer was as important as seed in the Green Revolution (Tomich et. al. 1995), contributing as much as 50 percent to the yield growth in Asia (Hopper 1993, FAO 1998). Others have found that one-third of worldwide cereal production is due to the use of fertilizer and related factors of production (Bumb 1995).

× Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System in Asia (ReSAKSS-Asia) is an initiative based on a multi-country regional network for informing current and future food and nutrition security strategies in the Asia region. The overall goal of ReSAKSS-Asia is to help fill key knowledge gaps, promote policy dialogue and sharing of lessons and experience across countries in the region, and establish a web-site portal to provide easy access to key information and knowledge on issue related to agricultural growth and improved food security and nutritional outcomes in the Asia region.

× Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System in Asia (ReSAKSS-Asia) is an initiative based on a multi-country regional network for informing current and future food and nutrition security strategies in the Asia region. The overall goal of ReSAKSS-Asia is to help fill key knowledge gaps, promote policy dialogue and sharing of lessons and experience across countries in the region, and establish a web-site portal to provide easy access to key information and knowledge on issue related to agricultural growth and improved food security and nutritional outcomes in the Asia region.

× A central policy question for Asia and other food-insecure regions of the world is how to respond to the threat posed by food inse-curity. In particular, is it more effective to promote improvements in agricultural productivity or to pursue price interventions aimed at promoting food self-sufficiency at a national level? In this paper I want to present some recent evidence on undernourishment and some other dimensions of food security in Asia and elsewhere that are relevant for this question. The key underlying research questions are: what drives changes in food security; and what does this imply for agricultural and food policy?

× A central policy question for Asia and other food-insecure regions of the world is how to respond to the threat posed by food inse-curity. In particular, is it more effective to promote improvements in agricultural productivity or to pursue price interventions aimed at promoting food self-sufficiency at a national level? In this paper I want to present some recent evidence on undernourishment and some other dimensions of food security in Asia and elsewhere that are relevant for this question. The key underlying research questions are: what drives changes in food security; and what does this imply for agricultural and food policy?