BHUTAN

× The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) brings together five South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and two Southeast Asian countries (Myanmar and Thailand). Recent events have raised global concerns on food security, including for BIMSTEC countries; these events include Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative with Ukraine, India’s prohibition on the export of non-basmati white rice, and its 20 percent export duty on parboiled rice. This policy note spells out the likely impact of one of these events, that is, India’s restrictions on rice exports to its fellow BIMSTEC nations.
Trade moves food from surplus to deficit regions and hence is crucial for maintaining a stable food supply. Historically, the global supply of cereals has been stable (Bradford et al. 2022); this implies that trade (or the lack of it) can be directly mapped onto area-specific food insecurity. At the same time, shocks leading to trade disruption can pose serious challenges, particularly for countries with high import penetration in food.

× Progress to improve nutrition among women, infants and children in South Asia has fallen behind the pace needed to meet established global targets. Renewed political commitment and monitoring of nutrition interventions are required to improve coverage and quality of care. Our study aimed to assess the availability of national nutrition policies, programmes, and coverage data of nutrition interventions for women, children, and adolescents in eight countries in South Asia. We reviewed relevant policy and programme documents, examined questionnaires used in the most recent rounds of 20 nationally representative surveys, and generated an evidence gap map on the availability of policies, programmes, and survey data to track progress on coverage of globally recommended nutrition interventions. Current policies and programmes in South Asian countries addressed almost all the recommended nutrition interventions targeted at women, children, and adolescents. There was a strong policy focus in all countries, except Maldives, on health system platforms such as antenatal and postnatal care and child growth and development. Survey data on nutrition intervention coverage was most available in India and Nepal, while Bangladesh and Bhutan had the least. Though countries in South Asia have committed to national nutrition policies and strategies, national surveys had substantial data gaps, precluding progress tracking of nutrition intervention coverage. Greater attention and effort are needed for multisectoral collaboration to promote and strengthen nutrition data systems.

× The focus of research on international trade has recently shifted from industries and countries to firms. Firm heterogeneity is shown to be a determinant of trade at both the intensive margin (increase exports per firm/product) and extensive margins (the number of firms exporting – new products, new partners, new varieties, and new prices). It is now widely accepted that exporting firms are larger, comparatively productive, more skilled, and capital-intensive, and pay higher wages than non-exporting firms.
The innovations in international trade literature that explains both the emergence as well as levels and the nature of trade flows through value chain integration necessitates examining trade-based exchanges at the highest possible levels of product disaggregation. Developments in trade theory emphasize that it is individual firms not countries that trade and analysis needs to incorporate firm characteristics in decisions and ability for exporting and importing. Firms are the appropriate unit of analysis for trade flows. It helps several paradoxes once the import of firm heterogeneity is understood.
Despite the substantive importance of granular level data and the significant level of disaggregated product-level bilateral trade flow data and enhanced computing power that are becoming available, most studies have tended to rely on analysis with high level of aggregation. Recent research on firm heterogeneity in international trade highlights the importance of extensive margins i.e., new products, new partners, new varieties, and cumulative of these i.e., new prices in trade patterns and firms' responses to trade liberalization and other policy changes. However, the high dimensionality of the data and the large number of responses to changes can easily overwhelm researchers. Additionally, bigger data sets may contain more noise, which can mask important systematic patterns. In analysis of trade flows, notwithstanding the rising incidence of differentiated products (varieties) and value chains that transcend national boundaries, methods in agri-food trade analysis in particular have not kept pace in terms of empirical methods and suitable data.

× The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization that comprises seven nations, five of which are from South Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka) and two from Southeast Asia (Myanmar and Thailand). BIMSTEC aims to increase trade including agri-food products to much higher levels than its historical low values lying much below potential. In 2020, intra-BIMSTEC trade accounted for a mere 6.15% of the total trade among its member countries. In contrast, intra-ASEAN trade made up around 23% of the total trade within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). These figures highlight the significant room for growth
in intra-regional trade among BIMSTEC member countries. Importantly the low share of intra BIMSTEC trade is not due to greater integration with supra-BIMSTEC partners. This policy note seeks to spell out some of the key agricultural trade policy-related challenges in the BIMSTEC region and their implications for economic integration in the area.

× The agriculture sector in Bhutan has evolved progressively from subsistence to integrated semi-commercial sector, and encompasses forestry, agriculture, and livestock, collectively termed as Renewable Natural Resources (RNR). Systematic development since the 1960s has helped improve production of crops, livestock, and overall management of natural resources. Agriculture continues to be a major source of employment after five decades of planned development, with a staggering 51 percent of its population in farming, of which 61.7 percent are female (NSB 2019). Bhutan has also successfully maintained 71 percent of its natural forest cover (FRMD 2018), representing extensive carbon sequestration sink and making the country carbon-negative. Bhutan’s “green” approach to development, founded on the philosophy of Gross National Happiness and more particularly its local values, culture, and religious beliefs of coexistence with nature, has helped in maintaining remarkably stable forest cover and clean environment. Forest cover in Bhutan consists predominantly of broad-leaved trees accounting for 50 percent coverage (1.928 million ha), while 20 percent cover is provided by coniferous trees. The estimated forest biomass of about 973 million tonnes serves as a significant terrestrial carbon sink, amounting to 457 million tonnes of carbon (FRMD 2018). The forests of Bhutan show a wide range of ecological variation and species diversity offering wide variety of social and economic benefits, ranging from easily quantifiable economic values associated with forest products to less tangible services and contributions to society, thereby serving as the foundation of sustainable development. This initiative of collaboration resulted into formalization of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (MoAF) and IFPRI on July 19, 2019, that defines the areas of cooperation between the two institutions. Since the initiation of this MoU in late 2018, MoAF and IFPRI started working on the collaboration which focused on capacity development of MoAF in policy analysis and visioning. This report aims to provide synopsis of MoAF–IFPRI collaborations from 2018 to 2020, highlighting the main output and defining areas of future collaborations.

× Social safety nets (SSN) are cash or in-kind/food transfer programs designed to help individuals and households cope with chronic poverty, destitution, and vulnerability (World Bank, 2018). Some of these social protection programs include conditions or additional interventions that can enhance their impact on nutrition. Examples include attending health and nutrition services, targeting households with nutritionally vulnerable members (e.g., pregnant, and lactating women, children under 24 months), administration of transfers in a ender-sensitive manner, distributing transfers during periods of seasonal or climatic vulnerability, and focusing on emergencies (Ruel & Alderman, 2013; Alderman, 2016) developed a framework that identifies which of the World Bank ASPIRE categories of social safety nets have the potential to be nutrition sensitive. These are captured in six broad categories with multiple program subcategories (Table 1).

× The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization which came into being in 1997. It comprises seven member states: five from South Asia, namely, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, and two from Southeast Asia, Myanmar and Thailand. BIMSTEC region is home to around 1.5 billion people, that is, nearly 22 percent of the global population with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of US$2.7 trillion.

× The World Health Organization (WHO) and other global nutrition and health agencies recommend nutrition actions throughout the life-course to address malnutrition in all its forms. As global recommendations are updated based on available evidence, it is anticipated that governments and stakeholders will, in turn, build on these recommendations to update national policies and programs. Little is known in the South Asia region about policy coherence with globally recommended actions. Even less is known about the degree to which countries are able to track their progress on nutrition actions. To address the gap, this brief summarizes the policy and program gaps in addressing nutrition actions, along with data gaps in population-based surveys in all the countries in the South Asia region, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

× The World Health Organization (WHO) and other global nutrition and health agencies recommend nutrition actions throughout the life-course in order to address malnutrition in all its forms. In this report, we examined how Bhutan’s nutrition policies and programs addressed recommended nutrition actions, determinants, and outcomes. We reviewed population-based surveys to assess the availability of data on nutrition actions, nutrition outcomes, and the determinants of these outcomes; we also assessed the data availability in administrative data systems for selected nutrition actions and outcomes. Our policy review identified a total of 53 recommended nutrition actions; of which, 48 were applicable in Bhutan; of those, Bhutan’s nutrition policies addressed 46 and programs addressed 41. Nutrition actions that were not included in current policies and programs were: iron and folic acid (IFA) supplementation and deworming during preconception, food supplementation for malnourished lactating women, and IFA supplementation during early childhood. Policies addressed four actions for which there were no programs to implement it: daily IFA supplementation and deworming during preconception, advice about weight gain after weighing during pregnancy, outpatient management of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and management of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) during early childhood. National strategies and plans recognized and aimed to address all key determinants of nutrition except coverage under social protection schemes. National strategies and plans showed an intention to track progress of all other nutrition outcome indicators except underweight among non-pregnant women 15 to 49 years, overweight among school children and adolescents five to 19 years, and hypertension among adults. Of 41 actions that Bhutan’s policies and programs addressed, our data review found that population-based surveys contained data on only 17 actions; similarly, out of 15 actions we reviewed in the administrative data systems, data was available on seven actions. Data was not available from population-based surveys on a number of indicators, including those related to IFA supplementation, deworming, and food supplementation during adolescence; calcium supplementation, deworming, weight monitoring, and counseling during pregnancy; newborn care during delivery and the postnatal period; and infant and young child feeding (IYCF), growth monitoring, immunization, identification and management of SAM and MAM during early childhood. Population-based surveys contained data on 18 of 20 indicators on immediate and underlying determinants. Data on dietary diversity among pregnant women and on coverage of households under social protection schemes were not available in either the administrative data systems or the population-based surveys. The population-based surveys contained data on all nutrition outcomes except overweight among adolescents. In conclusion, Bhutan’s policy landscape for nutrition is robust. The gaps in availability of data for tracking progress on nutrition are large, however, and much greater than are the gap in policies and programs for addressing recommended actions. Future population-based surveys and modifications of other data systems should aim to fill the identified data gaps for nutrition action and outcome indicators.

× The WHO recommends Essential Nutrition Actions (ENAs) throughout the life course to tackle malnutrition in all its forms. However, limited evidence exists on the availability of policies to support the implementation of ENAs in South Asia, a region with the highest burden of malnutrition globally. We conducted a policy analysis to assess the extent to which current policies address ENAs for adolescent girls, women, and children in South Asia.

× The Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (MoAF), Royal Government of Bhutan, had formed a taskforce with members from all sub-sectors and agencies under the Ministry to formulate the RNR1 Strategy 2040 by June 2020. The RNR Strategic Document 2040 will serve as an input to the national level strategic document that the Gross National Happiness Commission is currently formulating. However, to undertake this important task of sectoral envisioning, there exists a technical gap in terms of human resource capacity with respect to various economic analysis required to prepare a long-term strategy. To bridge this gap, a customized training on landscape planning, scenario analysis, and envisioning is deemed crucial to enable and enhance the taskforce to develop the Strategic vision for RNR sector. To fill this gap, MoAF and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) collaborated to utilize IFPRI’s knowledge services in developing capacity of the taskforce members. The primary aim of the collaboration is to enable the taskforce in doing evidencebased research. IFPRI will play an important role as knowledge partner to MoAF to provide technical support to the taskforce members in analysing data, implement economic modelling tools using national-level data and simulate it with various alternative policy scenarios. In addition, research team from IFPRI is also responsible to critically review the strategic document and to provide necessary feedback to make the document scientific, evidence-based and implementable.

× Achieving food and nutrition security is a complex challenge. This is especially true in South Asia, where 40 percent of the world’s poor—who survive on less than US$1.25 a day—live and 21 percent of the population is undernourished. Yet countries in South Asia have seen marked improvements in socioeconomic development in recent years. South Asia encompasses only 3 percent of the world’s land, but is home to about a quarter of the world’s population (1.6 billion people). While agriculture is a critical component of food and nutrition security, it is interlinked with water, energy, infrastructure, and policy challenges. Apart from this, natural resources are under additional pressure due to population growth, income growth, urbanization, changing consumer preferences, and climate change. Against this backdrop, the IFPRI South Asia Regional Office (SAR) in New Delhi engages in evidence-based policy research and capacity-building activities related to food and nutrition security in the region. The research focuses on agricultural diversification, climate change, markets and trade, nutrition and health, science and technology, and governance, contributing directly to the strategic research areas established by IFPRI’s 2018–2020 Strategy.

× The 193 individual country profiles capture the status and progress of all UN Member States, and the 80+ indicators include a wealth of information on child, adolescent and adult anthropometry and nutritional status, in addition to intervention coverage, food supply, economics, and demography. This tool is particularly useful for nutrition champions at the country-level, as it presents a wide range of evidence needed to assess country progress in improving nutrition and nutrition-related outcomes.

× In spite of its remote and land-locked location, Bhutan has been relatively successful as an agricultural exporter. The value of agricultural exports has grown at an annual rate of almost 9% since 2000. Taking advantage of the cooler climate, Bhutan exports oranges, potatoes, vegetables, and apples to India and Bangladesh. At the same time, agricultural imports have been growing at 10% per year. Rice accounts for more than two-thirds of the value of agricultural imports, which is not surprising given that Bhutan depends on imports for about half of its consumption needs. Wheat, vegetables, fruits, and spices are also imported. A key question, however, is whether this trade in agricultural products is beneficial to Bhutan in general and to poor farmers and consumers in particular?

× Changes in prices and income, due to shocks or economic growth and reform, influence the overall and food consumption levels of poor households. However, it is often not clear to what extent they are affected by these factors and what interventions might be needed to help them. The reaction of households to such price and income changes can be predicted and quantified through economic parameters that are called ‘demand elasticities’. These demand elasticities are important to know for those stakeholders who want to anticipate and alleviate the negative impact on the economy as a whole and on vulnerable households in particular.

× Bhutan has shown good economic growth (9% annually) in the 9th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2002-2007) and is further continuing on this growth path in the 10th FYP. As domestic incomes rise because of this growth, Bhutanese consumers are expected to shift their consumption patterns from staple grains to fruits, vegetables, dairy, eggs, and meat, leading to an increase in demand for these high-value agricultural products. Likewise, as Bhutan becomes integrated into the regional and global economy, farmers will diversify into high-value agricultural products that are in demand in urban areas of its South-Asian neighbors and in highincome countries. This is particularly true since, within South-Asia, Bhutan has a comparative advantage in temperate and sub-tropical commodities.

× Agricultural productivity increases are one of the desired outcomes from sensible food security and agricultural policies. Increased productivity might lead to improved welfare of rural populations through several pathways. First, increased productivity ensures higher food availability and higher incomes at the farm household level. Second, increased food availability leads to lower prices of agricultural products and higher real wages, to the benefit of poor net buyers and wage laborers respectively. Third, a well-performing agricultural sector has important economic multiplier effects on the vibrancy of the off-farm rural economy. However, policy makers are often hampered by a lack of information on agricultural productivity, the constraints that farmers face, and the levers that they can use to improve productivity.

× Food security is defined as “the access for all people at all times to enough food for a health, active life” (FAO, 1996). In contrast, food self-sufficiency is defined as being able to meet consumption needs (particularly for staple food crops) from own production rather than by buying or importing. There is a long-standing debate on whether food self-sufficiency is a useful strategy to achieve food security. Supporters of this proposition argue that relying on the market for to meet food needs is a risky strategy because of volatility in food prices and possible interruption in supplies. The opposing view is that it is costly for a household (or country) to focus on food self-sufficiency rather than producing according to its comparative advantage and purchasing some of its food requirements from the market. This debate is reflected in the evolution of food policy in Bhutan. Early Five-Year Plans (FYPs) called for self-sufficiency in staple foods, while more recent FYPs focus on the goal of food security. This paper examines three questions related to food security and food self-sufficiency in Bhutan.

× This study was conducted with the objective of determining the returns to sustainable land management (SLM) at the national level in Bhutan. The study first uses satellite data on land change (Landsat) to examine land use change in 1990–2010 and its impact on sediment loading in hydroelectric power plants. The study then uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze the impact of land use change and land management on sediment loading. The results from the land use change and SWAT analyses are used to assess the economic benefits of SLM.

× Bhutan has been characterized by good economic growth (9% annually) in the 9th Five-Year Plan (2002-2007) and is further continuing on this growth path. As domestic incomes rise because of this growth, Bhutanese consumers are expected to shift their consumption patterns from staple grains to fruits, vegetables, dairy, eggs, and meat, leading to an increase in demand for these high-value agricultural products.