PUBLICATIONS

Yangon Peri-Urban Poultry Farmer Phone Survey 2020

The Yangon Peri-Urban Poultry Farmer Survey, conducted in 2020, assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poultry production. This phone-based survey was carried out in six rounds: the first four rounds were conducted biweekly in June and July 2020, while the fifth and sixth rounds took place in August and November, respectively. The survey focused on a subsample of 269 chicken farms, comprising 190 broiler farms and 79 layer farms, from the 2019 Yangon Peri-Urban Livestock Survey. This subsample included all broiler and layer farms from the original survey that were reachable by phone and consented to participate. Among the surveyed farms, 74% of the broiler farms and 52% of the layer farms were integrated with fishponds. The questionnaire gathered data on farm operational status, business operations, and business sentiment.

Yangon Peri-urban Livestock Survey 2019

The Yangon Peri-urban Livestock Survey, conducted in 2019, sampled commercial livestock farms within a 100 km radius of central Yangon. In the absence of any publicly available registry of livestock farms, a sample frame was developed by analyzing satellite images to identify the location of poultry-fish farms. A complete listing of livestock farms was conducted in all selected villages. The minimum size for inclusion of poultry farms in the survey was set at 500 chickens per farm, as the survey was designed to capture information on commercial farming operations. All farms in selected villages at or above this threshold were selected with 100% probability. The survey questionnaire was designed to collect detailed information on farm production practices and production economics. Interviews were conducted face to face with farm owners by trained enumerators on the respondents' farms. The final dataset is comprised of data from 513 farms, of which 423 chicken farms.

Monitoring individual migration in Myanmar: December 2021 - June 2024

Drawing on data from seven rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), conducted between December 2021 and June 2024 with over 12,000 respondents per round, this report examines individual migration, migration in which one or a few household members leave the household. Over the two-and-a-half-year period from December 2021 to June 2024, an estimated 9 million household members aged 15 and older—17 percent of the total population and 28 percent of the adult population—migrated from their households. During this time, the states of Kachin, Kayin, and Mon reported the highest migration rates, with over 35 percent of the adult population migrating.

In January through June 2024, nearly nine percent of households reported sending migrants. However, the proportion of individuals migrating within Myanmar for work declined, while more individuals migrated for reasons such as marriage, education, or safety. Additionally, it is estimated that six percent of households had members migrate abroad to evade conscription laws. Urban households and those in Yangon were particularly likely to send members abroad to avoid conscription.

Remittance trends in Myanmar: January - June 2024

Remittances have emerged as an important source of income for households in post-coup Myanmar. This paper utilizes data from the seventh and fourth rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) to analyze remittance trends between January and June 2024 with trends from July to December 2022. These two rounds are compared because they both contain detailed questions on remittances.

Between January and June 2024, 16 percent of households received remittances from at least one member who was residing overseas or in a different state or region. This comprises nine percent of households receiving remittances from migrants outside of Myanmar and eight percent of households receiving remittances from migrants within Myanmar. Around 12 percent of households received remittances from a single migrant and four percent of households received remittances from two or more members. In any three-month period between January-June 2024, more households in Kayin, Mon, and Tanintharyi received remittances than households in other states/regions.

Among households that received remittances from within Myanmar, they received an average of MMK 173,768 per month (about 49 USD). Households that received remittances from outside of Myanmar received around MMK 499,386 per month (about 141 USD), significantly higher than the amount from migrants within Myanmar. Reliance on remittances among recipients has grown since 2021. Remittances made up 33 percent of household income between September 2021 and February 2022, compared to 45 percent of household income between January and June 2024. Finally, budget share of international remittances increased from 15 percent of household income between September 2021 and February 2024 to 26 percent between April and June 2024, underscoring the growing importance of remittances from abroad for household welfare in Myanmar.

Applying an integrated engagement model to support country-led food systems transformation: Insights from the SHiFT Initiative's approach in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh

From 2022-2024, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) combined high-quality nutritional and social science research with development and policy partnerships to generate innovative food systems solutions that contributed to sustainable healthy diets. Through a country-led approach, SHiFT supported the design and implementation of national food systems transformation activities in Viet Nam, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh, aiming to achieve sustainable healthy diets while also working toward improved livelihoods, gender equity, and social inclusion. Following the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), countries were encouraged to define pathways for transforming their food systems to align with the 2030 Agenda and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).2 Many countries have since developed national action plans to operationalize these pathways, requiring coordinated multisectoral efforts. SHiFT contributed to this process by generating evidence and supporting national stakeholders in developing context-specific food systems solutions. This brief introduces SHiFT’s country engagement strategy and explains how SHiFT supported collaborative pathways and processes in each target country during its initial phase. Consumers and Food Environments, Area of Work 1 in the new CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition, will build upon the SHiFT approach starting in 2025 through 2030.

What do we know about the future of agrifood systems in Southeast Asia?

The food systems of Southeast Asia (SEA) are projected to be under increasing pressure due to multiple drivers, including population growth, urbanization, biodiversity loss, and the uncertainties stemming from climate change.

Rice and fish will remain staple foods and the backbone of diets in the region’s rural and urban areas. In 2019, SEA produced 72 percent of the world’s aquatic food products and 25 percent of the world’s rice. Rice accounts for 50 percent of calorie intake for its population, while fish contributes more than 50 percent of per capita average animal protein intake. These shares are expected to rise over the next several decades due to population growth.

Production and consumption of staple foods are expected to fall due to the impacts of climate change, potentially jeopardizing food and nutrition security in the region and beyond. The projected magnitude of climate change impacts on rice production varies greatly, depending on the models used.

Previous regional foresight studies have explored the implications of climate change on food production in SEA, but other driving forces and outcomes of food systems transformation have received less attention.

What do we know about the future of the agrifood system in Indonesia?

Productivity growth has played a dominant role in driving the growth of Indonesia’s agricultural production in recent decades, but it has been accompanied by the increasing role of land expansion.

Indonesia is projected to achieve high-income status by 2045 if the country can maintain a 6–7 percent annual economic growth rate.

To achieve high income and economic growth, the country needs to boost investment activities by increasing national saving, foreign direct investment (FDI), and investment efficiency.

Future foresight research should include environmental impacts such as emissions and land use change and explore long-term changes in dietary patterns and poverty alleviation.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – June 2025

Rice prices declined nationally, falling by almost 20 percent year-on-year, with sharp drops in Kayah and Kayin, but significant increases in Shan (East). Rice prices are lowest in secure, major rice-producing areas and highest in most conflict- and earthquake-affected regions. Export crop prices diverged, with green gram and maize increasing due to strong international demand, while black gram and pigeon pea declined year-on-year due to reduced demand in India. Animal-sourced food prices surged, led by beef (up 47 percent) and pork (up 64 percent), due to rising production and fuel costs, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand and a seasonal fishing ban. Multiple risks lie ahead, including the aftermath of the March earthquake, falling international rice prices, ongoing conflict, and uncertain monsoon season production, all of which may undermine farm income and food security.

Replication Data for "How Much Do Our Neighbors Really Know? The Limits of Community-Based Targeting"

This dataset contains data and replication code for the study "How Much Do Our Neighbors Really Know? The Limits of Community-Based Targeting," which examines the accuracy and determinants of information used by community members in participatory targeting exercises. The study was conducted in Purworejo Regency, Central Java, Indonesia, using a sample of 300 participants randomly selected across 10 neighborhood units (RTs).

The data shared here is a subset of the full dataset used in the paper's analysis. The baseline survey, conducted via in-person household visits in March–April 2021, collected data on demographic characteristics, community engagement, detailed consumption and asset ownership, exposure to shocks, and receipt of social benefits. Immediately following the survey, participants completed incentivized experimental tasks, including household wealth rankings and belief elicitation exercises related to other community members.

A follow-up survey, conducted in June–July 2021 with a subsample of participants, re-administered selected ranking tasks to capture changes in perceptions over time. In each RT, a community meeting exercise was also held to generate a group-based consensus ranking of all participant households.

This dataset supports replication of the study's findings on the informational limits of community-based targeting and provides a rich resource for researchers working on social information, poverty targeting, behavioral economics, and participatory development interventions.

CGIAR Initiative on One Health

Reshaping Chinese agrifood systems to enhance human nutrition: A scoping review of research

Geospatial analysis enables combined poultry–fish farm monitoring in the fragile state of Myanmar

Food security is challenging to measure in fragile contexts. Here we combine data from previous field surveys with remotely sensed images and apply deep-learning techniques to estimate changes in the number and area of chicken houses on integrated chicken–fish farms and the supply of chicken meat and eggs from 2010 to 2023 in Yangon region, Myanmar. Yangon’s poultry sector grew ~10% annually from 2010 to 2020 but contracted ~8% annually from 2020 to 2023.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Five: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting bi-annual data on agricultural indicators including crop production and sales, input use, crop marketing, farm and livestock assets, and farm services. The Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) is a nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey with the objective of collecting bi-annual data on household and individual welfare indicators, including poverty, food security, dietary quality, subjective wellbeing, and coping strategies. MAPS is a sub-sample survey that includes farming households from MHWS. There are five Rounds of MAPS. MAPS Rounds 1, 3, and 5 were conducted between January and March 2022 and 2024 and collect recall data on monsoon production. MAPS Round 2 and 4 were conducted between June and September 2022 and 2023 and collect recall data on dry season production (pre/post monsoon season).

MAPS Round 5 consists of 11 modules (A-K) that are each included in the clean dataset and unique by household ID (hhid). Modules A, B, and J are introductory and closing modules that only include information on the call and confirmation of demographic information connected to MHWS. The remaining modules provide data on farmer demographics and agricultural production and marketing.

Module C consists of background and demographic information. This includes data on farmer demographics along with farm area and crops grown. Module D provides data on rice production and sales for monsoon 2022 and 2023, including rice variety, amounts produced and sold, and farmgate prices. Module E contains similar information to Module D but pertaining to pulses and oilseeds.

Module F consists of data on farm input use including purchased inputs, mechanization, labor, and the effect of natural shocks. Module G presents information on crop marketing and Module H provides data on farm and livestock assets. Module I contains data on farm services including agricultural extension, credit, mobility issues in the community, travel times to access services, contract farming, crop residues, and changes in rice consumption and paddy growing practices. Module K contains information on changes in rice consumption and paddy growing practices.

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar, 2021-2024: Findings from eight rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey

This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using eight rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to December 2024. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar from 2021-2024. More than three percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-December 2024. Hunger was highest in Kachin (6.5 percent), followed by Kayah (6.3 percent) and Chin (6.0 percent) in the latest survey round. Households with a low Food Consumption Score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 14.2 percent in August-November 2023 and remained high at 14.2 percent in October-December 2024. The shares in October-December 2024 were highest in Chin (34.6 percent), Kayah (25.4 percent), and Shan (19.3 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.5 percent to 26.0 percent between December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2024. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality (7.3 percentage points increase in poor diet quality compared to 3.2 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults were driven by lower consumption of animal sourced food and vegetables. In the latest round of the survey, 30.7 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and 21.3 percent of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality. Of note during October-December 2024, urban households faced greater food insecurity than rural households, with higher hunger rates (3.5 percent vs. 2.8 percent), and lower dietary diversity among both adults (26.0 percent vs. 25.0 percent) and children aged 6–59 months (23.2 percent vs. 20.4 percent). Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities were particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances was a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households were less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gendersensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.

Global rice price declines and expected effects on monsoon paddy farming: Insights from key informants

This brief draws on interviews with 51 agro-input retailers across 10 states and regions to assess how falling international rice prices may affect monsoon paddy cultivation in their communities.

Key Findings:
In May 2025, international rice prices (in real terms) reached their lowest level in the past 15 years, one-third lower than in May 2024.
Myanmar’s dual exchange rate system has further depressed local rice prices. In addition to low export prices, rising marketing and processing costs—driven by persistent electricity shortages and transportation challenges—have widened the gap between farmgate prices and end-market prices (both domestic and export).
According to informants, fertilizer (urea) prices rose 12 percent, while paddy prices fell by an average of 21 percent (median decline: 29 percent) in May 2025 compared to a year earlier.
In response to weaker price incentives, respondents expect monsoon paddy area to decline by 11 percent and fertilizer use to drop by 18 percent compared to the 2024 monsoon season.
Expected declines in paddy prices, cultivated areas, and yields are likely to reduce production, lower farm incomes, and increase rural poverty in 2025 - especially concerning given farmers’ relative resilience in recent years.

Recommended Actions:
To ensure adequate incentives for paddy farmers, the dual exchange rate system should be revised to give exporters—and, by extension, farmers—fairer and more predictable returns.
Barriers to efficient domestic trade and processing—such as roadblocks, restrictive regulations, poor transportation infrastructure, and limited access to fuel and electricity—should be addressed to narrow the growing gap between producer and consumer prices.

Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), Round 8

The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS),a nationwide phone panel consisting of 12,058 households, was implemented between October, 2024 and December, 2024. The objective of the survey was to collect data on a wide range of household and individual welfare indicators including wealth, livelihoods, unemployment, food insecurity, diet quality, health shocks, and coping strategies in a country exceptionally hard hit by conflict, severe economic collapse, and several damaging waves of COVID-19. The respondents interviewed in the MHWS were purposely selected from a large phone database aimed at being representative at the region/state level and urban/rural level in Myanmar. A novel sampling strategy in combination with the development of household and population weights allows for estimates that are nationally, regionally, and urban/rural representative.

Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), Round 7

The seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationwide phone panel consisting of 12,800 households, was implemented between April 2024 and June 2024. The objective of the survey was to collect data on a wide range of household and individual welfare indicators including wealth, livelihoods, unemployment, food insecurity, diet quality, health shocks, and coping strategies in a country exceptionally hard hit by conflict, severe economic collapse, and several damaging waves of COVID-19. The respondents interviewed in the MHWS were purposely selected from a large phone database aimed at being representative at the region/state level and urban/rural level in Myanmar. A novel sampling strategy in combination with the development of household and population weights allows for estimates that are nationally, regionally, and urban/rural representative.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – May 2025

The rapidly evolving agricultural and food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic, and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

Community and household shocks and coping strategies: Findings from the eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (July – December 2024)

The eighth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was conducted between October and December 2024. This round follows seven previous rounds carried out since December 2021 and reflects conditions during July – December 2024. This report presents updated insights on the conflict, climatic, service, and economic shocks households faced, as well as the coping mechanisms they employ in response. Security conditions were difficult throughout the recall period. Seventeen percent of households reported feeling insecure in their communities, while 19 percent reported low levels of trust. Crime and violence affected 17 percent and 8 percent of communities, respectively. Insecurity remained highest in Kayah, Chin, and Kachin, while Rakhine became more insecure and isolated. Lawlessness was also widespread: 17 percent of households reported gambling and 14 percent reported drug use in their communities, especially in urban areas. Thirty-five percent of households express concerns over conscription, particularly in urban centers like Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw, as well as states like Shan and Rakhine. Additionally, 13 percent of respondents reported feeling unsafe while moving around and carrying out everyday tasks in their communities, and 3 percent reported risks of kidnapping. Climatic shocks further compounded hardship. Nineteen percent of farming households experienced climatic shocks, with severe flooding reported by 45 percent of households in Kayin, 35 percent in Kayah, and 36 percent in Rakhine. Intense winds affected 14 percent of households in Chin. These events, like conflict, have contributed to the destruction of homes, infrastructure, and services, further deepening vulnerability. Service disruptions further undermine wellbeing. Among households connected to the national power grid, 78 percent experienced daily power cuts lasting at least one hour. In urban Rakhine, households face up to 16 hours of outages daily. Internet access was limited for 55 percent of households, with near-total internet blackouts in Rakhine and Kachin, and over 30 percent without access in Sagaing and Kayah. Although school enrollment and access to medical services rose modestly, it remained low in conflict-affected areas, especially in Rakhine. Economic pressures continue to mount. Food inflation reached 39 percent between September and December 2024. Prices rose sharply for leafy greens, potatoes, and chicken. Although rice prices also increased, their contribution to overall food inflation was the lowest since 2022, at 19 percent. Petrol prices rose by 7 percent in the quarter and 54 percent year-on-year. Non-food essentials such as soap (25 percent increase), paracetamol (26 percent), and toothpaste (128 percent) also saw steep price increases. Households have resorted to increasingly desperate measures to cope. By late 2024, only 20 percent of households had any cash savings or bank deposits – just 7 percent in Kayah. Migration remains a key strategy, with about 10 percent of households reporting a migrant in Q4 2024. Borrowing played a central role: 64 percent of loans came from informal sources like friends and relatives, and were largely used to cover food, health, and daily expenses. Amid these challenges, 52 percent of households reported giving to social services and one in four provided direct assistance to vulnerable neighbors or local food initiatives. However, if shocks continue to intensify, households’ ability to cope may further erode, leaving many without the resources needed to meet even basic needs.

The impact of extreme weather events on global soybean markets and China's imports

An environmentally-extended input-output analysis of province-level carbon emissions from energy use in China's food system

Restoring livelihoods after the 2025 Myanmar earthquake: Pre-crisis baseline for recovery planning

On March 28, 2025, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, causing extensive
destruction and compounding an already fragile humanitarian situation driven by conflict, economic instability, and prior natural disasters. This assessment examines pre-earthquake livelihood conditions across the most severely affected areas—Mandalay, Sagaing, Bago, Nay Pyi Taw, and Shan State—to provide a baseline for recovery planning focused on restoring economic resilience.
Prior to the earthquake, household livelihoods varied significantly across the earthquake hit
regions. Farming and livestock production dominated in Shan and Sagaing, where the earthquake primarily affected rural areas, whereas non-farm businesses and salaried employment were more common in Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw, where the earthquake impacted predominately urban areas. Wage labor, both farm and non-farm, supported a significant share of households, but was associated with the highest rates of income-based poverty, reflecting the insecurity of casual and seasonal employment. Income-based poverty was widespread, affecting 69 percent of households in earthquake-affected areas.

Developing a food safety consumer experience scale: Qualitative insights from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Vietnam

Objectives: Unsafe food contributes to 600 million cases of foodborne illness and 420,000 deaths annually. Existing methods used to evaluate food safety risks overlook consumers’ perspectives coming from their everyday experiences that influence their food choices. Our objective was to develop a cross-culturally appropriate and user-friendly scale to assess consumers’ experiences related to food safety in low- and middle-income countries. This study identified the constructs that constitute the experiences of food safety that the scale should reflect.

Methods: In-depth interviews were conducted with urban households in Bangladesh (n=51), Ethiopia (n=50), and Vietnam (n=41). Eligible households had children aged 2–5 years and members serving as primary food purchasers, preparers, and caregivers. Interviews explored attitudes, perceptions, and lived experiences related to food safety. Data were analyzed using a constant comparative method.

Results: Respondents expressed awareness of biological and chemical contaminants in foods. Concerns about chemical additives and food adulteration were common, fueled by beliefs that these hazards cause chronic illnesses. Personal and familial experiences with foodborne illness reinforced caution when buying foods. Religious and cultural beliefs shaped how respondents explained and responded to food safety concerns, with some attributing illness symptoms to spiritual causes. Trust in food vendors was rooted in reputation, visible cleanliness, and willingness to rectify issues (e.g., exchange items). Respondents differentiated their extent of scrutinizing safety based on food type: staples such as rice and pulses were assessed more by vendor credibility, whereas perishables such as fish and meat underwent direct, detailed inspections. Low transparency in food sourcing and how vendors prepared foods were persistent concerns.

Conclusions: Trust, perceived transparency, risk perceptions, and past incidents shaped consumers’ mental representations and behaviors related to food safety. Interviews underscored the centrality of context and sensory-based quality indicators, suggesting that scenario-based assessments are more appropriate than generic risk-reduction items.

Japan reaps the consequences of flawed rice policies

In response to soaring supermarket rice prices, the Japanese government released 210,000 tonnes of rice from its emergency reserves in February 2025, despite an abundance of rice production in the country. The price spike since summer 2024 did not occur because of a production shortage, but due to media coverage of extreme summer heat, panic buying after an earthquake warning, speculation and rigidities and missing markets in the rice system. A market-friendly approach could provide a more sustainable resolution than ad-hoc government actions.

Regional developments: East and Southeast Asia [in 2025 GFPR]

Over the past half-century, the food systems of East and Southeast Asia have been shaped by economic growth and structural transformation, extreme weather events, and unique agricultural landscape and value chain dynamics. This chapter examines how aligning research outputs, financial programs, and regional cooperation initiatives with national policy frameworks in the region has led to improvements in food security, nutrition, and livelihoods in the region’s countries, though important challenges remain. Looking ahead, food systems transformation in the region will require a multisectoral approach that includes cross-cutting foresight and integrated approaches that combine disruptive technologies, participatory governance, and scalable solutions supported by sustainable financing mechanisms.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Air pollutions affect restaurant and foodservice industry in China

This study examines the impact of air pollution on food away from home (FAFH) consumption in 52 cities across 20 provinces of China, focusing on expenditures for online food delivery (online FAFH) and dine-in restaurants (offline FAFH). Using unique daily aggregated city-level consumption data linked with hourly air quality data, we employ both semiparametric and parametric models to uncover a positive relationship between PM2.5 levels and online FAFH, contrasted by a significantly negative relationship with offline FAFH. Our analysis reveals that shifts in consumer demand for food services on polluted days, coupled with changes in urban mobility patterns, contribute to these outcomes. We also detect temporal variations based on meal type, enhancing our understanding of how air pollution influences food consumption behavior. The findings indicate that increased PM2.5 levels lead to a net loss in restaurant revenue, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and an increase in plastic waste. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the multifaceted impacts of air pollution on FAFH and corresponding economy and environmental implications.

Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar

The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have affected inorganic fertilizer prices, use, response, and efficiency. We utilize unique nationally representative household panel survey data and a comprehensive approach that employs various analytical methods to examine the nexus between conflicts and fertilizer-related issues. Our findings reveal that greater intensity of violent events is associated with higher prices of major types of inorganic fertilizer, particularly in areas farther from major import locations. These price changes and increases in violent events have suppressed both the likelihood and quantity of inorganic fertilizer usage, leading to decreased rice yield responses at given nitrogen application levels. Panel stochastic frontier analyses, combined with a method addressing the endogeneity of inorganic fertilizer use, suggest a significant decline in fertilizer use efficiency each year since the onset of conflict. The increase in violent events is also associated with the reduced use of extension services, seeds from markets, irrigation, and optimal fertilizer blends, which may partly explain the diminished returns and efficiency of inorganic fertilizer use. Conflict therefore seems to be associated with a change in the economics of inorganic fertilizer use through various impact channels, affecting agricultural performance in these fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Understanding the gender gap in the Colombian agricultural sector

We live in a complex world facing uncertainties, crises-including conflict and extreme weather- and a global economic slowdown. These challenges highlight the importance of understanding the agricultural sector's contributions to the economy and designing effective policies to support its resilience and growth. Within this context, examining the gender gap in the Colombian agricultural sector takes on even greater relevance.

The sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy, contributing 6.4% of the total value-added in 2019 and providing 82.1% of agricultural employment in rural areas. However, a significant gender gap exists, with women facing disadvantages in terms of participation, wages, and income generation.

Women's participation in the agricultural workforce is significantly lower than men's. In 2019, only 6.1% of employed women worked in agriculture, compared to 21.6% of men, creating a gap of 15.4 percentage points. This disparity is the largest among all the economic sectors analyzed. This lower participation translates into an unequal distribution of labor income. While the agricultural sector accounts for 11.3% of the total labor income for men, it contributes only 2.6% for women.

Women in agriculture also earn considerably less than men. The average salary for women in the sector was USD 117.4, while men earned USD 168.7, a 43.7% difference. These disparities are persistent across different areas and qualification levels.

To promote a more equitable and resilient agricultural sector, it is essential to understand and address the underlying causes of this gender gap. This paper aims to comprehensively analyze the gender gap in Colombian agriculture by examining its various dimensions and identifying potential solutions. By highlighting the disparities in participation, wages, and income generation across different areas and qualification levels, this paper aims to inform the design of policies and interventions that promote gender equality, empower women in agriculture, and enhance the sector's overall contribution to the country's social and economic development.

Business aspects along the rural-urban continuum, outlet type, and gender of ownership among MSMEs in the Vietnamese food environment

Concurrent with its rapid economic growth, Viet Nam has been experiencing a food systems transformation. Broad changes in the food environment have been a key part of this transition. While the availability of processed food is ubiquitous, the food environment continues to be largely dominated by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). So, to build strategies to improve the availability and affordability of healthy foods, MSMEs are a key entry point. In this paper, we use primary survey data to separate key sources of variation in MSMEs’ organizational dimensions and business practices by type of outlet, rural-urban location, and gender of the owners. We focus on outcomes related to employment, food sources, business finance, good business practices, and nutrition knowledge and attitudes. We find limited differences in this set of outcomes in terms of whether an outlet is located in a rural, peri-urban, or urban area, or in terms of the gender of its owners. Instead, most of the variation in outcomes can be linked to the type of outlet, raising specific types of outlets as a key focus when seeking to foster the supply of healthier foods in the food environment.

Principles of engagement and vision to action for transdisciplinary research and co-design in agroecology

Living labs or living landscapes are gaining momentum as sub-national territories within which sustainable food system transformation is sought through multi-stakeholder engagement processes.

In the CGIAR Agroecology Initiative, 11 ALLs were established in 8 countries. Here, ALLs are defined as multi-stakeholder spaces in which agroecological innovations can be identified, co-designed, tested, and adopted.

These landscapes emerge as coherent territories that have fuzzy boundaries defined by the functionality and meaning bestowed onto them by their diverse users, who care about and are willing to take transformative action in pursuit of just food system transitions, rather than by geographical or administrative limits.

ALLs respond to the common challenges that external partners face in accompanying and supporting local stakeholders on agroecological transition pathways without imposing their own views and agendas. ALLs offer an opportunity to act as transformation vehicles that foster transdisciplinary research, including the co-creation of knowledge and co-design of innovations. Principle-based engagement methods can help to support and enable locally driven transformation processes.

Impacts of city life on nutrition: Evidence From resettlement lotteries in China

Urban environments are thought to improve food security, by offering enhanced access to markets and income opportunities. Yet this idea is hard to test empirically due to an abundance of confounding factors and selection issues. This study leverages a resettlement program in China to provide the first quasi-experimental estimate of city life on food consumption and nutrition among low-income households. Lottery-determined timing of resettlement enables causal inference. We base our empirics on a 3-year panel and a range of difference-in-differences and matching methodologies. We find that those who were resettled to towns significantly increased both food consumption and diet variety, with increased intake of several macro- and micro-nutrients. Diet quality mostly improved, but we also found signs of over-consumption, notably of carbohydrates. Our evidence further suggests that our impacts are primarily due to improved market access. This stands in contrast to recent literature that finds little or no effect of living environments on food consumption. Instead, we reveal a significant impact of urban environments in shaping diets, bolstering the notion that supply-side channels do matter in some contexts.

JEL Classification: I15, O18, R23

Impact of food system interventions to increase fruit and vegetable intake among urban adults in Nigeria and Vietnam

Fruit and vegetable consumption is below the WHO recommendations, globally, in Southeast Asia, and in West Africa. Affordability, accessibility, and acceptability are the main drivers of consumption. Nutrition-sensitive food system interventions that address these drivers may be effective in increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This study evaluates the effect of an integrated nutrition-sensitive program that aimed to increase fruit and vegetable consumption in low-income urban adults in Hanoi, Vietnam (n = 582), and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 626), through the simultaneous implementation of three interventions at the market and consumer levels. Fruit and vegetable intake data were collected after eight months of exposure to the program with repeated quantitative 24-hour recalls and exposure effect was estimated with inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment, adjusting for potential confounders. The impact size on total fruits and vegetables (144 g/d, 95%CI 93, 196), fruits (137 g/d, 95%CI 93, 183) and vegetables (6 g/d, 95%CI -12, 24) showed that intake was higher in the exposed Nigerian population than the control group. In Vietnam, intakes of fruits and vegetables in the exposed group did not statistically differ from the control group when controlling for differences between groups with propensity scores. Participants exposed to all three interventions reported slightly higher intakes compared to those who were exposed to fewer interventions, but these differences were not statistically significant. Integrated approaches of nutrition-sensitive food system interventions need to be implemented to increase fruit and vegetable consumption. Co-creation of interventions provides the possibility to address the different drivers and barriers of healthy diets specific of the context.

Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey, 2023

The Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey (2023) collected detailed household-level data on agricultural production, food and non-food consumption and expenditure, and livelihood strategies across 14 provinces, covering communities in the highlands, lowlands, and islands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). The survey was designed using a purposive sampling strategy based on defined agro-ecological zones, which allows for the analysis of key factors influencing rural households and communities. It is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative; however, given the careful random selection of survey areas, we expect that generalizable relationships between variables affecting socio-economic and other development outcomes in rural PNG communities will be consistently observed across representative samples and in this survey. These factors include those that contribute to more resilient local food systems, diversified employment opportunities, and improved household wellbeing. The survey encompasses 2,699 households in 270 communities, spanning five agroecological zones. It features detailed modules on a wide range of topics relevant to rural livelihoods, agricultural production, and household wellbeing.

Wholesalers and the transformation of Myanmar's maize value chains

Wholesalers of agricultural crops have historically received limited attention in the literature on agricultural development, which has a strongly productivist focus. When wholesalers are considered, they are often framed as exploitative, taking advantage of information asymmetries, market failures, and unequal power relations to extract heavy surpluses from farmers. However, there is a growing appreciation that wholesalers may play important roles in facilitating agricultural development and rural transformation. This paper evaluates wholesaler conduct and performance using a survey of 218 maize wholesalers in 12 of the major maize-growing and trading townships of South Shan State, Myanmar and the cities of Lashio and Muse in North Shan. Hybrid maize emerged very rapidly in Myanmar over the past two decades to become a major cash crop, supplying domestic animal feed mills and becoming one of Myanmar's most important exports to China and Thailand. Wholesalers have been central to the development of this supply chain and the sector. Contrary to recent literature from Myanmar that has cast maize wholesalers as exploitative, the survey finds that the rapidly growing wholesaler segment of the maize value chain is highly competitive, rapidly changing with respect to technology, and functions efficiently. Farmers obtaining maize inputs from wholesalers in the form of tied output credit sell their maize at prevailing market rates. The emergence of clusters of maize wholesalers and allied actors such as third-party logistics services occurred spontaneously and symbiotically with the expansion of hybrid maize cultivation, and with each set of actors essential to the emergence of the others.

Nurturing care in the first 10 years of life: Results from a Vietnamese longitudinal study

The long-run and intergenerational impact of early exposure to the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–61 on mental health

Completion report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The ATMI-ASEAN project was launched on October 7–8, 2016, in the Philippines. It is a five-year project funded by International Funds for Agriculture Development (IFAD) with a year’s extension due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The implementation of the project was led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and co-implemented by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA). The ATMI-ASEAN project comprises three main components: Component 1. Policy studies and expert workshops; Component 2. High-level policy forums (HLPFs) and roundtables; and Component 3. Technical assistance for planning and policy development. Each component was scheduled and implemented over the project implementation from 2016 to 2021, then extended for a year to finalize the project implementation affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This report elaborates on all project outputs throughout the implementation.

Synthesis report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a regional grouping of Southeast Asian countries formed in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Brunei Darussalam joined this association in 1984. ASEAN expanded to 10 countries between 1995 and 1999 by extending memberships to Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. These 10 Southeast Asian countries entered into the trade agreement to ensure the free flow of goods, including agricultural products. Agreements related to services and investment were also signed to enhance economic cooperation and to develop an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The implementation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 2003 helped liberalize the intra-ASEAN agricultural trade, which grew steadily during the period under review. Further, the dynamics of intra ASEAN trade show that after the food price crisis of 2007/2008, intra-ASEAN agricultural trade increased sharply, which reflects ASEAN’s efforts to create a food security action plan aimed at improving sustainable food trade among ASEAN members.

A missing link: The interdependence between sugar-sweetened beverage and cigarette consumption from China

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and cigarettes are addictive substances and addictive substances are often related in consumption with each other. However, the potential interdependence between SSB and cigarette consumption has not been explored in the literature. As SSB and cigarette consumption have posed a great threat to individual health, the knowledge of such interdependence is critical for policymakers to design and coordinate government interventions. We thus employed Heckman sample selection model and simultaneous equation model to identify and validate the interdependence between SSB and cigarette consumption across subgroups exhibiting different smoking behaviors with individual-level data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) during the period from 2004 to 2011. We find that SSBs and cigarettes are complements in that individuals who ever smoked are more likely to consume SSBs frequently with higher level of SSB intake eventually and SSB intake of current smokers increases along with the amount of cigarettes smoked. SSBs and cigarettes are also substitutes in that former smokers are more likely to consume SSBs compared with current smokers. The complementary relation observed among current smokers implies that government interventions targeting one of the two goods may yield a double dividend effect on health whereas the substitutable relation displayed by former smokers suggests that the health effect of interventions designed to reduce the consumption of one good may be tempered by an elevated demand for the other.

Is subjective wellbeing too subjective? The (large) impact of randomized placement of happiness and worry questions in a national survey of crisis-affected Myanmar

In good times and in bad, in sickness and in health: The continuous rise in adoption of labour-saving agricultural technologies in Myanmar

How to do note: Designing GTAs in the context of women’s land and resource rights

Access to and control over land and resources are vital for women’s empowerment, serving not only as critical productive assets but also as determinants of social status and political power. However, rural women face numerous barriers in securing land rights, including restricted access to resources and services like finance, healthcare, education, market information, agricultural inputs, and technology. Gender transformative approaches (GTAs) aim to challenge and change the underlying social norms, power dynamics, and systemic barriers perpetuating inequality. This How To Do Note (HTDN) describes a process for developing GTAs that can help redress inequalities in women’s land and resource rights. It draws on lessons from an initiative in which GTAs were designed, tested, and adapted across six IFAD projects in countries where addressing gender dimensions was critical for project success. The HTDN aims to facilitate wider adoption and scaling of GTAs to strengthen women’s land and resource rights.

Disruptions to agrifood value chains in fragile and conflict-affected states: Evidence from Myanmar

Agrifood value chains (AVCs) play crucial roles in food security in fragile and conflict-affected economies where there are widespread challenges and disruptions to business operations, food access, and incomes. Yet, given these challenges, safe data collection is challenging in conflict-affected settings and, as a result, the evidence on the disruptions AVC businesses face is thin. In this paper, we rely on novel panel data from AVC businesses in Myanmar, one of 7 countries in the world with extreme conflict. This short paper documents the disruptions experienced by businesses at several levels of the food supply chain, including farmers, input retailers, crop traders, rice millers, and food vendors. We also provide evidence on the implications for prices by analyzing price changes over this period: farm input and sales prices using farm survey data, food retail using data from food vendors, and dietary cost estimates combining consumption and price data. Our results highlight vulnerabilities in food supply chains in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Potential opportunities to strengthen food supply chains in such settings include ensuring access to banking and financial services; minimizing transportation disruptions to mitigate widening gaps between producer and consumer prices; and maintaining access to fuel and electricity as well as cellphone internet networks. Efforts to support these areas could stabilize food availability and reduce food prices, while also increasing farm-gate shares of food prices thereby supporting rural incomes.

JEL codes: Q13; Q11; 013

Information delivery in times of crisis: Evaluating digitally-supported agricultural extension in Myanmar

Agricultural extension can have direct and important impacts on vulnerable populations, strengthening both rural livelihoods and urban food security through technology adoption and increased agricultural production. Digitally-supported extension utilizing mobile phones can be a cost-effective method for delivering information to farmers. However, different digitally-supported extension delivery mechanisms may have differential impacts on farmer knowledge and behavior, especially (i) in the face of new and emergent threats to farm production, and (ii) in crises or violent conflict when trust in outside information is low and conventional extension channels are disrupted. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate two digitally-supported extension designs—direct SMS and a novel hybrid lead-farmer-supported SMS method—in delivering fall armyworm management guidance to maize farmers in Myanmar after a military coup. Both approaches improved farmer knowledge. There is suggestive evidence that the lead-farmer-supported group spent more on pesticides and hired labor compared to the control group and used pesticides more effectively in damage control than the SMS group.

Women as breadwinners: A multifaceted relocation program and women’s labour market outcomes

Note Pratique: Concevoir des approches transformatives sensibles au genre dans le contexte des droits des femmes aux terres et aux ressources

L’accès aux terres et aux ressources, et leur contrôle, sont essentiels à l’autonomisation des femmes, car il s’agit non seulement de moyens de production fondamentaux, mais aussi de déterminants du statut social et du pouvoir politique. Cependant, les femmes des zones rurales sont confrontées à de nombreux obstacles à la garantie de leurs droits fonciers, notamment un accès limité aux ressources et aux services tels que les financements, les soins de santé, l’éducation, les informations sur les marchés, les intrants agricoles et la technologie. Ces obstacles sont souvent aggravés par des problèmes systémiques plus aigus en période de conflits ou de crises économiques, alimentaires ou environnementales.

Garantir les droits des femmes aux terres et aux ressources est fondamental pour atteindre les objectifs de développement durable (ODD). En effet, d’après le Haut-Commissariat des Nations Unies aux Droits de l’Homme, le renforcement des droits fonciers des femmes permet une amélioration de leur statut, conditions de vie, sécurité alimentaire, santé, éducation, et les protègent contre la violence basée sur le genre (VBG). Ces droits sont essentiels pour la démocratie, la paix, le développement durable et la sécurité.

Pour relever ces défis, des mesures proactives sont nécessaires pour transformer les inégalités femmes-hommes profondément ancrées dans les politiques officielles et les normes sociales informelles. La promotion de l’équité dans l’accès, le contrôle et l’utilisation des terres et des ressources ne peut se faire qu’en composant avec ces institutions formelles et informelles et en les transformant, y compris les régimes coutumiers, afin de promouvoir l’équité sociale et de genre.

Guia Orientadora: Diseño de enfoques transformadores en materia de género en el contexto de los derechos de las mujeres a la tierra y los recursos

El acceso y el control a la tierra y los recursos son elementos fundamentales para el empoderamiento de las mujeres, ya que no solo constituyen bienes productivos esenciales, sino que también determinan su estatus social y su poder político. Sin embargo, las mujeres rurales se enfrentan a numerosos obstáculos para garantizar sus derechos a la tierra, entre ellos el acceso limitado a recursos y servicios como el financiamiento, la atención en salud, la educación, la información sobre los mercados, los insumos agrícolas y la tecnología. Con frecuencia, estas dificultades son agravadas por problemas sistémicos más amplios, por épocas de conflicto y por crisis económicas, alimentarias y ambientales. Garantizar los derechos de las mujeres a la tierra y los recursos es esencial para alcanzar los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS). Según la Oficina del Alto Comisionado de las Naciones Unidas para los Derechos Humanos, fortalecer los derechos de las mujeres a la tierra contribuye a mejorar su participación social, sus condiciones de vida, su seguridad alimentaria, su salud, su educación y su defensa frente a la violencia por razones de género. Estos derechos son cruciales para la democracia, la paz, el desarrollo sostenible y la seguridad de las sociedades.
Hacer frente a estos desafíos exige medidas proactivas que permitan transformar las desigualdades de género que se encuentran arraigadas tanto en las políticas formales como en las normas sociales informales. La promoción del acceso, control y uso equitativo de la tierra y los recursos solo puede lograrse abordando y transformando estas instituciones formales e informales, incluidos los regímenes consuetudinarios, para promover la igualdad social y de género.

Small groceries in Viet Nam

The food environment represents the place in which demand for food meets supply—consumers purchase foods in the food environment, while retailers of the food consumers purchase represent the end of the value chain. In many countries, the food environment is undergoing rapid change as economies grow and populations urbanize; a consequence is that a larger share of food consumed is purchased by the end consumer (de Bruin and Holleman 2023). Viet Nam is no different. Viet Nam’s growing and urbanizing economy has, over time, led to a changing food environment. This note focuses on one type of retailer in Viet Nam’s food environment: the small grocery. We define small groceries as stores that are not supermarkets, are not part of a chain, and have a fixed storefront from which they do business on a daily or near daily basis. These stores play a small but important role in Viet Nam’s food environment, particularly in rural areas, and as we will demonstrate, almost all these groceries sell at least one component of a sustainable healthy diet. As a result, what they sell could help play a role in improving the diets of Viet Nam’s population. To focus on learning more about small groceries, this note makes use of two datasets. One is a listing exercise that enumerated all the businesses selling food in sampled wards of three districts: Dong Da, in urban Ha Noi; Dong Anh, which is in peri-urban Ha Noi; and Moc Chau, which is a rural district northwest of Ha Noi. The second survey used the first survey as a sample frame, and was specifically designed to learn about the constraints and opportunities that micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face in considering selling more healthy foods (Ceballos et al. 2023). Small groceries are one type of business in the food environment, and all can be considered MSMEs.

Business and public health impacts of a food safety rating program among pork vendors in Vietnam

Pork is the most widely consumed meat in Vietnam (OECD, 2023), where traditional food markets typically lacking refrigeration account for 84% of retail trade (USDA, 2024). Previous research by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and its partners found that over 60% of meat samples collected from such markets were contaminated with Salmonella (Ngo et al., 2023). This situation is typical of food markets in low and middle-income countries, where foodborne illness is estimated to claim 420,000 lives (Havelaar, et al., 2015) and cause a productivity loss of US$95 billion annually (Jaffee, Henson, Unnevehr, Grace, & Cassou, 2019). Adherence to basic food and hand hygiene practices among meat vendors has the potential to reduce contamination cost-effectively, but would require either market incentives or regulatory enforcement, both of which are often absent in traditional markets. Punitive approaches to enforcement of food safety standards can backfire – for example, vendors may evade regulators by moving to informal markets that lack access to even basic water infrastructure. Further, shutting down non-compliant vendors could reduce access to nutritious foods among low-income consumers.

Capabilities assessment to support food systems transformation towards sustainable healthy diets in Viet Nam

Collaborative governance processes are increasingly recognized as critical for normative food systems transformation (FST) globally. For instance, collective action and multistakeholder partnerships is one of the main levers of change stated in Viet Nam’s “National Action Plan on Food Systems Transformation in Viet Nam towards Transparency, Responsibility, and Sustainability by 2030” (FST-NAP). The collaborative processes bring together government, private actors and citizens in collective forums and networks to engage in long-term goal-oriented decision making and implementation, for example, change towards sustainable healthy diets and better planetary health for all populations (Ansell and Gash 2008). Forming and maintaining collaborative governance processes entail navigating different challenges attributed to the inherently dynamic nature of such partnerships.

2024 China and global food policy report: Building a sustainable and diversified food supply to foster agrifood systems transformation

The global food and nutrition security situation remains severe, with multiple crises exacerbating hunger and food insecurity. Climate change, regional conflicts, inflationary pressures, and slow economic recovery in many parts of the world have led to decreased incomes and purchasing power, worsening global hunger and malnutrition. The 2023 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World indicates that between 691 million and 783 million people faced hunger in 2022, with a food insecurity prevalence of 29.6%, including approximately 900 million people experiencing severe food insecurity. Furthermore, over 3.1 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet due to diminished access to nutritious food.

Leveraging the role of MSMEs for healthier diets and nutrition: Insights from fruit and vegetable value chain studies across five countries

In most low and middle-income countries (LMICs) the food system falls short in providing sufficient amounts of healthy foods to a burgeoning population. The growing awareness of how food systems are stressing planetary boundaries and failing to provide sustainable healthy diets and livelihoods has prompted the widespread call to transform the global food system (Béné 2022; FAO et al. 2020, 2024; Webb et al. 2020). Transforming food systems requires engaging various groups of actors with diverse perspectives and challenges (Leeuwis et al. 2021), including setting up alliances with the informal sector (Brouwer & Ruben 2021) and a strengthened focus on the role of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Globally, MSMEs represent about 90 percent of all businesses and account for 60 to 70 percent of employment and 50 percent of GDP. In the current food system, by being present at all value chain stages and better linking small-scale farmers to markets, MSMEs can offer affordable food to both urban and rural areas, create jobs and opportunities for young and female entrepreneurs, and support sustainable, circular food practices (IFAD 2021). These promises can be fulfilled if certain barriers that can hinder their contributions, such as high rates of food loss and waste (FLW), food safety concerns, and the uncertain informal context in which the majority of them operate are addressed (Termeer et al. 2024).

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – September 2024 survey round

In September 2024, we surveyed 256 rice millers from 12 states and regions across Myanmar to assess the impacts of the monsoon floods and the political crisis and related disruptions.
This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews.

Key findings
 Flooding has significantly affected monsoon paddy production, with 74 percent of millers reporting flood-related impacts, particularly in the main rice-growing regions. Consequently, 63 percent of millers expect local production to decline compared to last year, with 73 percent of millers in flood-affected areas anticipating reduced output.
 Labor shortages have emerged as a critical challenge for milling businesses, with 53 percent of millers identifying it as a significant issue and 7 percent considering it the most severe disruption.
 Mills continue to face ongoing difficulties accessing electricity and fuel, alongside rising transportation costs. Moreover, reports about disruptions in banking and finance have doubled compared to last year, indicating increasingly widespread and persistent challenges.
 Mill-level paddy and rice prices continued to rise in September 2024. Rice prices increased by 17–19 percent compared to one year earlier, while paddy prices rose by a more modest 8 percent on average. This discrepancy suggests that higher milling margins account for a significant share of the price increases.
Looking forward
 There will be lower paddy production from the 2024 monsoon season due to floods and pests, which is expected to further drive-up rice prices for consumers. Rice prices have already risen rapidly over the past three years, raising serious concerns about affordability and food security.
 Labor availability is a rising concern and rising costs of labor and fuel together with volatile byproduct markets and other business disruptions have likely contributed to rising milling margins, with a smaller share of rice price increases passed through to producers. This trend underscores the impacts of business disruptions and the need for stability.

Transforming food systems towards sustainable healthy diets in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Viet Nam: A cross-country stakeholder analysis

The CGIAR Research Initiative on Sustainable Healthy Diets through Food Systems Transformation (SHiFT) recognizes the urgency of early stakeholder engagement to facilitate systemic changes towards sustainable healthy diets. This qualitative exploratory study aimed to provide insights about where stakeholders are active in food systems in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Viet Nam and their characteristics. The conceptual framework of food systems for diets and nutrition proposed by the High Level Panel of Experts on food security and nutrition was used to map all stakeholders using a network analysis approach, in particular applying the degree centrality measure. This measure shows the food system domains with the largest number of stakeholder connections. The analysis reveals that centralization is spread across various food system domains. In Bangladesh, the areas with the most stakeholder connections are observed in the policy and governance and food environment domains. In Ethiopia, more connections were observed under the food environment, and production system domains and the outcomes related to diets, nutrition and health. In Viet Nam, it is the production system, storage and trade, packaging and processing, and food environment domains with the most stakeholder connections. Overall, platforms are active in policy and governance in all countries, suggesting that engaging with multi-stakeholder platforms is beneficial for SHiFT to advance the national agendas aimed at realizing sustainable healthy diets. Considering connectivity with food system domains, SHiFT can collaborate with all sectors. Moreover, focusing on stakeholders in the food environment, particularly on overseeing foodscapes for people, is essential. However, implementing food systems transformation requires identifying and engaging with other actors as well. However, there is limited representation of stakeholders in processing, transport, and retail, especially in Ethiopia and Bangladesh. International stakeholders emerge prominently from our analysis, suggesting that the food system narrative may still be primarily driven from an international/global perspective, resonating with the United Nations Food Systems Summit dialogues. To realize the ambitions of transitioning towards sustainable healthy diets for all, efforts must extend beyond projects/programs and engage national-level stakeholders.

Livelihoods and welfare: Findings from the seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (January–June 2024)

The seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between April–June 2024 with a recall period covering January to June of the same year. It follows six rounds of surveys that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report documents livelihood and welfare dynamics over this survey period. Overall, household welfare has deteriorated in Myanmar considerably over the past two years. In terms of income sources, household farming, farm wages, and non-farm businesses are the most important livelihoods in rural areas while non-farm businesses and non-farm salary employment are most important in urban areas. However, in terms of primary livelihoods, we witness a structural shift in livelihood profiles of rural households with fewer households identifying non-farm business income are their primary livelihood (4.1 percentage points decrease) while more households rely on farm wages (2.9 percentage points increase). There are also fewer reported sources of income with households on average reporting 1.6 income sources, compared to almost 2 years ago. The primary source of income is shifting to low-paying livelihoods like wage work, with remittances and assistance serve as supplementary income sources. A combination of increasing prices and growing reliance on low paying livelihoods over the past years led to a significant decline in household purchasing power. Median real household income per adult equivalent per day declined by 8.4 percent over the past year between the first half of 2023 and 2024 and by 18.2 percent over the two-year period between the first half of 2022 and 2024. Over the same period, the headcount rate of poverty increased to 63.6 percent in the first half of 2024 from 60.9 percent a year back in 2023 and 56.2 percent two years back in 2022. Wage earning households continue to be extremely vulnerable with the lowest median real daily income per adult equivalent as well as the livelihood category with the highest level of poverty. With respect to states/regions, poverty is the highest in states engulfed by high levels of conflict, for example, Rakhine, Chin and Kayah. A notable trend in recent years is the faster increase in urban poverty. Urban poverty increased by 9.2 percentage points over the past year from the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024, while it increased by 14.7 percentage points over the past two years from the first half of 2022 to first half of 2024. On the other hand, rural poverty only increased by 0.2 percentage points in the past year and 4.6 percentage points in the past two years. There are only a few strategies helping households stay out of poverty, including earning income from farming (which has partially benefited from higher output prices), migrating with the whole household, and receiving assistance or remittances. The presence of remittance income significantly reduces a household’s probability of being poor by a notable 21 percentage points. There are many inter-linked factors that have led to the deterioration in welfare in Myanmar in recent years, including escalating conflict, macroeconomic mismanagement and inflation in particular, the breakdown of social protection, and the absence or deterioration of many other critical services normally provided by the state, including healthcare and nutrition, education, agricultural extension, financial programs for the poor, infrastructure development and social protection.

Food avoidance among breastfeeding mothers in Myanmar and its impacts on maternal dietary quality

Key Findings
• This study designed and analyzed two new surveys in Myanmar. The first one is the fifth Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) round conducted from April to June 2023, in which 12,953 respondents were surveyed, including 5,512 women of reproductive age (15-49). The second is the Rural Urban Food Security Survey conducted in 2020, in which respondents were women who were pregnant in round 1 (June-July 2020) in Yangon and participated in at least five of those six rounds.
• Forty percent of all Myanmar women aged 15-49 believe that breastfeeding mothers should avoid at least one healthy food, with vegetables the most widely cited food to be avoided, followed by fruits, fish, meat and beans/nuts.
• Beliefs were prevalent throughout Myanmar’s diverse regions and across both genders, but more common in majority Buddhist regions (and less common in majority Christian regions).
• Beliefs in food avoidance during breastfeeding were less prevalent among women with more formal education and nutritional knowledge, and with exposure to nutrition counselling from community health workers.
• Mothers in the Yangon panel saw minimum dietary diversity of women (MDD-W) fall by 46 percentage points from pregnancy to the first month after birth, stemming from significant declines in eight of the ten MDD-W food groups.
• MDD-W recovered somewhat over the second to fifth months after birth but was still significantly lower up to the sixth month after birth.

The true costs of food production in Viet Nam

Key takeaways
True cost accounting allows for the measurement of hidden impacts of food production on the environment, human health, and society.
• Our findings show that at the national level for all crop sectors:
o Environmental externalities account for 73% and social for 27% of external cost structure.
o Major environmental impact sources are land occupation, air pollution, and climate change.
o Major social impact sources are underpayment of farm workers and the incidence of child labor.
• In NATURE+ sites in Sa Pa and Mai Son districts for the crop sector:
o External costs represent about 24% of all household crop production costs.
o Environmental externalities (61%) are greater than social (39%).
o Land occupation is the most important external impact source, followed by soil degradation and climate change.
o Under earning (underpayment of workers and/or low famer profits) are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and the incidence of child labor.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey Round Three: Note on Sample Characteristics and Weighting

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) Round 3 provides nationally and sub-nationally representative data on agricultural performance, integrating insights from 4,892 farming households. Conducted between January and March 2023, this survey leverages phone-based data collection to address logistical challenges posed by Myanmar's remote and conflict-affected regions. MAPS modules encompass critical agricultural indicators, including crop production, marketing, input usage, farm assets, and services. The survey design integrates rigorous sampling and weighting strategies to ensure representation across demographic and geographical strata. Findings highlight variations in agricultural practices between seasons and years, alongside challenges in household retention due to conflict and infrastructure limitations. Despite attrition and inherent limitations of phone surveys, MAPS successfully enumerated 271 out of 324 townships, contributing vital data for understanding agricultural dynamics in Myanmar.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS), Round 5

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) is a nationwide phone panel consisting of approximately 4,663 households. The objective of the survey is to collect data on farm characteristics and agricultural assets, area and crops planted, access to inputs, crop marketing, and constraints in agricultural activities. The respondents interviewed are a sub-sample of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey. A novel sampling strategy in combination with the development of household and population weights allows for estimates that are nationally, regionally, and urban/rural representative. MAPS Round 5 survey was implemented by phone by Myanmar Survey Research (MSR) from January to March, 2024. The MAPS collected information on household characteristics, overall area cultivated, crops grown, security problems, input use and farm management practices, yields, sales, output prices, and marketing behavior. MAPS Round 5 focused on the agricultural activities of crop farmers during the monsoon of 2023.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets – September 2024 survey round

We assess changes in food prices and diet costs based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until September 2024) and households (fielded in six periods between 2022 to 2024) across rural and urban areas and in all states/regions of Myanmar.
Key Findings
 Between July 2023 and September 2024, the cost of a healthy and commonly consumed diet increased by 34 and 35 percent, respectively.
 The price of rice – the major staple – was more than twice as high in September 2024 compared to two years prior. Prices rose by 29 percent between July 2023 and September 2024, and by only 7 percent between March and September 2024.
 In September 2024, cooking oil prices were 88 percent higher than the previous year, but 15 percent lower than two years prior.
 In September 2024, the median prices of most protein-rich foods, except for fish, were at least 50 percent higher compared to two years prior. Over the same two-year period, banana prices doubled.
 The highest costs for both common and healthy diets are seen in the conflict-affected states of Rakhine and Kachin, where in September 2024, the costs of the healthy diet was about 65 percent higher than the national average and the costs of the common diet costs was about 40 percent higher.
 Compared to average casual wages, the healthy and common diets are least affordable in Kachin, Rakhine and Magway and most affordable in Kayin and Mon.
 Between the fourth quarter of 2023 and September 2024, the prices of petrol rose by 90 percent, bar soap and paracetamol by nearly 50 percent, and toothpaste by 160 percent.
Recommended Actions
 Ensuring food is available at affordable prices is crucial to prevent food security and nutrition issues in the country. Therefore, prioritizing a well-functioning agri-food system should be a key focus for all stakeholders.
 The food price situation in Rakhine State is most concerning among all states and regions, and the state should be prioritized – to the extent that this possible – for assistance.

Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2024 dry season

Key Findings
We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the dry seasons of 2023 and 2024, based on the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) fielded in the period of July 29th to September 16th, 2024. The survey covered plots of 825 rice paddy producers. It is found that:
• Prices of inputs used in paddy production – labor and mechanization – increased significantly between these two growing seasons by between 36-38 and 59 percent respectively, on average. On the other hand, urea prices declined by 1 percent. Paddy prices at the farm increased by 14 percent.
• Nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased over the last two seasons. At the same time, price inflation has been high in the country. Therefore, real profits from paddy rice farming, which are nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, decreased by 15 percent during the dry season of 2024 compared to the dry season of 2023. However, real profits were still higher than two and three years ago.
• Rice productivity at the national level during the dry season of 2024 on farmers’ largest rice plot was slightly higher (+6.9 percent) than in the previous dry season.
• Six percent of the rice farmers reported to have been affected by flooding during the dry season, even before cyclone Yagi affected many farmers in the beginning of September 2024.
Recommended Actions
• As paddy prices have gone up compared to last year, rice prices have gone up substantially as well, making the costs of Myanmar’s staple food unaffordable for some consumers, especially for the most vulnerable ones. Expansion of safety nets, targeted or self-targeted to the poorest, would therefore be beneficial.
• The cyclone Yagi has affected a significant share of monsoon producers. Assistance for farmers in these areas to recover from floods in time for the post-/pre-monsoon is called for.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – October 2024

The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Philippines

Child stunting is a persistent problem in the Philippines. While stunting prevalence is higher in rural than in urban areas, it still affects one in four children under the age of five in urban areas and coexists with rising overweight in school-age children, adolescents, and adults. Some urban nutrition interventions have focused on reducing diet-related noncommunicable disease (NCD) risks, but they have not addressed the challenges of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) (e.g., the coexistence of problems of undernutrition and overnutrition) in school-age children and adolescents. Likewise, the lack of evidence on interventions in the urban food environment (FE) signals a need for studies to better understand the role of FEs in driving unhealthy dietary changes and the DBM and to test approaches to shift consumption patterns toward healthier diets and lifestyles. NCDs are the leading cause of mortality in the Philippines, and NCD risks are higher in urban areas than rural ones. National policies support nutrition with multisectoral approaches, particularly through urban farming and gardening to promote healthy and affordable urban diets. Yet the urban-specific programs must be evaluated. Evaluations of urban agricultural initiatives are needed to document any impact on diets and nutrition and to assess the potential for scale up, especially given land scarcity in dense urban areas. Additionally, multisectoral double-duty actions must be developed to address all forms of malnutrition.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – June 2024 survey

To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in June 2024 with a sample of 187 active traders in 12 states and regions.

Key Findings:
-Cellphone network challenges rival transportation challenges in both their prevalence and impact, affecting more than half the traders and doubling since 2023.
-More than 30 percent of traders reported being affected by exchange rate volatility and inflation, export/import challenges, and local and regional conflict. Notably, most encountered these shocks in April, May, and June 2024.
-Reported credit challenges are at their highest points in the past three years. The proportion of traders offering credit to farmers has decreased, and for some, the credit terms have shifted to higher interest rates and extended loan durations.
-Prices for the six most common commodities in our data have increased markedly in the past two years. Trader sales prices of rice were three times higher in June 2024 than in April 2022.
-Margins in June 2024 were 0.8 points higher than in April 2023. Rising trading margins could reflect increasing transport or transactions costs in trading, and are generally a negative sign for agrifood system efficiency.

Looking Ahead:
-Communication challenges in cellphone networks together with widespread transport disruptions could lead to inefficiencies in spatial arbitrage and widening gaps between consumer and producer prices.
-Credit challenges are increasing and rising prices will place greater financial stress on the farmers and traders alike.
-More than 40 percent of traders consider the general inflation and exchange rate volatility as a negative shock that reduces their business revenues. This survey was conducted before a large currency devaluation in informal markets and widespread flooding in Myanmar impacting agricultural production and livelihoods. These shocks add additional stress to the food system.

Nature+ Quantitative Baseline Household and Worker Survey, Viet Nam

In 2023, the Nature Positive Solutions (Nature+) baseline survey was conducted in Vietnam, focusing on the districts of Sa Pa and Mai Son. The study aimed to describe the socio-economic conditions and agricultural systems in these areas, providing a baseline assessment to inform ongoing Nature+ interventions. The survey covered 1,153 smallholder farmer households (858 treated and 295 control) across 23 villages.
Data collection employed a two-stage sampling technique and assessed various variables, including socio-economic characteristics, agricultural practices, land use, nutrition, and adoption of Nature+ practices. This data will support the evaluation of Nature+'s impacts on inclusion, poverty reduction, food security, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability.
Additionally, the survey included interviews with 334 workers, covering socio-demographic characteristics, contract types, forced labor, harassment, workplace health and safety, wages, and overtime.
Furthermore, community-level data were collected through interviews conducted by the team’s supervisors in all 23 surveyed villages. Each discussion involved at least three community leaders as key informants.

A framework for cost-effectiveness analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in dairy industry with an application to dairy farms in China

Endogenous technologies and productivity in rice production: Roles of social instability in Myanmar since 2021

Despite technologies' critical roles in agricultural productivity, evidence is scarce on how conflict affects technology adoption and consequent agricultural productivity, often due to a lack of data in fragile states. Our study contributes to filling this knowledge gap by using unique large-scale data on rice producers before and after a military coup in Myanmar in 2021 that led to a significant increase in conflicts in the country. We find that the increase in violent events including those in adjacent townships significantly changed the rice production function in both factor-neutral and non-neutral ways. Specifically, increased violent events have been generally associated with downward factor-neutral shift in production function, and more importantly, increased output elasticity to agricultural capital (equipment) owned (in other words, reduced output resilience against capital ownership shocks). Our evidence also suggests that this has been led partly through reduced access to agricultural extension services, which would otherwise help farmers maintain productivity even with limited capital ownership by substituting it with human capital and skills. Our results consistently hold for both panel and cross-sectional production functions across various specifications and particularly in Lower Myanmar. Results also indicate that lower mechanization service fees partly mitigate these effects.

Community and household shocks: Findings from the seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (January–June 2024)

The seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between April and June 2024. It follows six rounds that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the seventh round related to shocks including conflict, climatic, service sector, and economic. The security situation in Myanmar continued to worsen during the seventh-round recall period, which spanned from January to June 2024. Households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 23 percent of households, and had low levels of trust in their communities, as reported also by 23 percent of households. This is because crime and violence remained high, affecting 16 and 9 percent of communities, respectively. Lawlessness continues to be a widespread issue in Myanmar. In January–June 2024, 18 percent of households reported a lot or some gambling in their community and 13 percent reported drug use. These issues were more prominent in urban areas, compared to rural areas. A new challenge is risk of conscription, reported by 39 percent of households. Another crucial challenge is that 13 percent of respondents felt that it was dangerous for them to move around and do everyday tasks. Finally, three percent of respondents revealed that there was a risk of kidnapping in their community.