GRAPPLING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN PAKISTAN
Source: K.von Grebmer/IFPRI (Flickr)
Konark Sikka is an intern with IFPRI- South Asia office
Climate change has become more pronounced over the past few decades, and agriculture has been one of the most affected sectors due to impact of monsoon regime changes, droughts, and floods. A recent IFPRI policy note, Climate Change and Extreme Events: Impacts on Pakistan’s Agriculture, presents the results of two studies examining effects of drought and climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.
The study shows that intensive drought periods occur approximately every 16 years, which last from four to five years and are followed by wet periods. These droughts occur in the central and southern regions of Pakistan, which are the country’s agricultural powerhouses. This cycle of droughts poses an obvious challenge to water management. On the other hand, the fact that a cycle of 16 years could be tracked suggests periodicity, which provides useful insights for planning coping strategies.
Focusing on climate change across all scenarios, the authors project a decline in the yields of the key staples of wheat, maize and rice due to higher temperatures and the contraction of the growing season during the warmer season. Looking at both internal and external factors, such as the rise of international prices due to the impact of climate change, a decline in domestic production would pose a negative impact on Pakistan’s food security.
The authors suggest some policy-centred ways forward:
- Drought risk reduction and long-term climate change adaptation strategies should be integrated into agricultural development policies.
- Increase agricultural research, with a focus on improved irrigation efficiency through adoption of advanced irrigation technologies and management.
- Flexible trade policies in drought years, and changes in reservoir release rules ahead of droughts where reliable forecasting information is available, are needed in order to mitigate drought impact on agriculture.
- In order to improve irrigation and agricultural efficiency, the following measures are suggested: cultivar improvement programs, strengthening crop management research, expanding agricultural extension and education, strengthening infrastructure in rural areas, accelerating irrigation management reforms, allocating irrigation water more flexibly across provinces, and accelerating drip expansion.
