PAKISTAN
by IFPRI | April 26, 2017
IFPRI Publications on Pakistan
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Crowding in private quality: The equilibrium effects of public spending in education
Andrabi, Tahir; Bau, Natalie; Das, Jishnu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Khwaja, Asim Ijaz. 2024
Andrabi, Tahir; Bau, Natalie; Das, Jishnu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Khwaja, Asim Ijaz. 2024
Soil quality evaluation for irrigated agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan: The Luenberger indicator approach
Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Hailu, Atakelty; Mugera, Amin; Pandit, Ram; Davies, Stephen. 2024
Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Hailu, Atakelty; Mugera, Amin; Pandit, Ram; Davies, Stephen. 2024
Abstract | View
This article describes the construction of the Luenberger soil quality indicator (SQI) using data on crop yield, non-soil inputs, and soil profile from three irrigated agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, namely, rice–wheat, maize–wheat–mix, and cotton–mix zones. Plot level data are used to construct a soil quality indicator by estimating directional distance functions within a data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework. We find that the SQI and crop yield relationships exhibit diminishing returns to improving soil quality levels. Using the constructed SQI values, we estimate linear regression models to generate weights that could be used directly to aggregate individual soil attributes into soil quality indicators without the necessity of fitting a frontier to the crop production data. For wheat and rice production, we find that SQI is most sensitive to changes in soil electrical conductivity (EC) and potassium (K). The SQI has direct relevance for site-specific decision-making problems where policymakers need to price land resources and conservation services to achieve agricultural and environmental goals.
Food systems interventions for nutrition: Lessons from six program evaluations in Africa and South Asia
Neufeld, Lynnette M.; Nordhagen, Stella; Leroy, Jef L.; Aberman, Noora-Lisa; Barnett, Inka; Wouabe, Eric Djimeu. 2024
Neufeld, Lynnette M.; Nordhagen, Stella; Leroy, Jef L.; Aberman, Noora-Lisa; Barnett, Inka; Wouabe, Eric Djimeu. 2024
Abstract | View
While there is growing global momentum behind food systems strategies to improve planetary and human health—including nutrition—there is limited evidence of what types of food systems interventions work. Evaluating these types of interventions is challenging due to their complex and dynamic nature and lack of fit with standard evaluation methods. In this paper, we draw on a portfolio of six evaluations of food systems interventions in Africa and South Asia that were intended to improve nutrition. We identify key methodological challenges and formulate recommendations to improve the quality of such studies. We highlight five challenges: a lack of evidence base to justify the intervention; the dynamic and multifaceted nature of the interventions; addressing attribution; collecting or accessing accurate and timely data; and defining and measuring appropriate outcomes. In addition to more specific guidance, we identify six cross-cutting recommendations, including a need to use multiple and diverse methods and flexible designs. We also note that these evaluation challenges present opportunities to develop new methods and highlight several specific needs in this space.
Pakistan: A cost-benefit analysis of crop rotation practice in rainfed areas
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. 2024
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. 2024
Strengthening groundwater governance in Pakistan
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; ElDidi, Hagar. 2024
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; ElDidi, Hagar. 2024
Pakistan: A cost-benefit analysis of puddled planted rice vs. direct seeded rice
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. 2024
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. 2024
The economywide impacts of increasing water security through policies on agricultural production: The case of rice and sugarcane in Pakistan
Davies, Stephen; Akram, Iqra; Ali, Muhammad Tahir; Hafeez, Mohsin; Ringler, Claudia. Washington, DC 2023
Davies, Stephen; Akram, Iqra; Ali, Muhammad Tahir; Hafeez, Mohsin; Ringler, Claudia. Washington, DC 2023
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.137073
Abstract | View
Increasing demand for water juxtaposed with shrinking supplies will require a transfer of water resources out of agriculture into the domestic, industrial, and ideally environmental sectors. To examine the potential of policies to facilitate a release of water from agriculture, this paper uses IFPRI’s Computable General Equilibrium Model with a water extension, CGE-W, to assess the impact of commodity taxes on two highly water consumptive crops, rice and sugarcane, on water consumption and the overall economy. We find that land use grows by 1.56 million acres overall when the tax is imposed on both commodities, while 3.2-million-acre feet (MAF) of consumed water, equivalent to 6.35 MAF of water withdrawals, are released from agriculture. These outcomes are due to sugarcane’s reduced use of land over two cropping seasons and significant changes in cropping patterns. The study also examined releases of water from other possible policy measures and found that an even tax rate of 30% on sugarcane, rice and cotton yields 8.73 MAF of water from agriculture. However, with a hotter, drier climate virtually all these releases of water disappear because water must stay in agriculture due to higher evaporation and less precipitation, which raises irrigation demands. The needed policies will go beyond just taxation and might include changing cropping patterns and irrigation practices, as well as development of drought resistant varieties. Other approaches, such as buying tubewells from farmers, and developing markets for nonagricultural purchases of water, may have a role. The role of international trade in sugar and rice is shown to be significant and should be considered further in these analyses.
Where women in agri-food systems are at highest climate risk: A methodology for mapping climate-agriculture-gender inequality hotspots
Lecoutere, Els; Mishra, Avni; Singaraju, Niyati; Koo, Jawoo; Azzarri, Carlo; Chanana, Nitya; Nico, Gianluigi; Puskur, Ranjitha . 2023
Lecoutere, Els; Mishra, Avni; Singaraju, Niyati; Koo, Jawoo; Azzarri, Carlo; Chanana, Nitya; Nico, Gianluigi; Puskur, Ranjitha . 2023
DOI : 10.3389/fsufs.2023.1197809
Abstract | View
Climate change poses a greater threat for more exposed and vulnerable countries, communities and social groups. People whose livelihood depends on the agriculture and food sector, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), face significant risk. In contexts with gendered roles in agri-food systems or where structural constraints to gender equality underlie unequal access to resources and services and constrain women's agency, local climate hazards and stressors, such as droughts, floods, or shortened crop-growing seasons, tend to negatively affect women more than men and women's adaptive capacities tend to be more restrained than men's . Transformation towards just and sustainable agri-food systems in the face of climate change will not only depend on reducing but also on averting aggravated gender inequality in agri-food systems. In this paper, we developed and applied an accessible and versatile methodology to identify and map localities where climate change poses high risk especially for women in agri-food systems because of gendered exposure and vulnerability. We label these localities climate-agriculture-gender inequality hotspots. Applying our methodology to LMICs reveals that the countries at highest risk are majorly situated in Africa and Asia. Applying our methodology for agricultural activity-specific hotspot subnational areas to four focus countries, Mali, Zambia, Pakistan and Bangladesh, for instance, identifies a cluster of districts in Dhaka and Mymensingh divisions in Bangladesh as a hotspot for rice. The relevance and urgency of identifying localities where climate change hits agri-food systems hardest and is likely to negatively affect population groups or sectors that are particularly vulnerable is increasingly acknowledged in the literature and, in the spirit of leaving no one behind, in climate and development policy arenas. Hotspot maps can guide the allocation of scarce resources to most at-risk populations. The climate-agriculture-gender inequality hotspot maps show where women involved in agri-food systems are at high climate risk while signaling that reducing this risk requires addressing the structural barriers to gender equality.
Policy preferences of experts seeking to raise and stabilise farm incomes in the Eastern Gangetic Plains
Cooper, Bethany; Crase, Lin; Burton, Michael; Rigby, Dan; Alam, Mohammad Jahangir; Kishore, Avinash . 2023
Cooper, Bethany; Crase, Lin; Burton, Michael; Rigby, Dan; Alam, Mohammad Jahangir; Kishore, Avinash . 2023
DOI : 10.1111/1467-8489.12511
Abstract | View
Poverty is endemic in the highly populated Eastern Gangetic Plains where agriculture is critical to more than half the population. However, the mechanisms to support agriculture for development are contested. For example, some have advocated a strong role for government support and assistance due to market weaknesses, while others have promoted the need for more market-oriented approaches. We use an elicitation process focussed on expert policymaking communities, employing stated preference techniques to explore these options. Differences in perceptions about the effectiveness of policies and their delivery are reported between countries, while also empirically examining the influence of the respondents' organisational background. The results show support for policies that improve farmers' access to inputs, especially when delivered by private sector actors. The research provides an important contribution to the literature on policies for agricultural development.
Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis
Davies, Stephen; Quershi, Tehseen; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Haider, Zeeshan; Raja, Sehrish . 2023
Davies, Stephen; Quershi, Tehseen; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Haider, Zeeshan; Raja, Sehrish . 2023
DOI : 10.1002/aepp.13372
Abstract | View
This study uses social accounting matrix multipliers and structural path analyses to estimate effects of COVID-19 and related fiscal stimuli on five household groups. The COVID-19 lockdown increased poverty in Pakistan by 15%, which was addressed using a $1.5 billion, digitally implemented Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program that reached 14.8 million poor households. The study's models show that the largest multipliers from Ehsaas program finance were in agriculture, as a 1 Rupee shock adds 0.225 Rupee income to households. About 30% of that gain was estimated to go to poor farm families. In contrast, our models find that construction and trade growth added three times as much income to poor nonfarm and urban households as to farm households. However, those sectors added only one third as much total income as agriculture. From the structural path analysis, the importance of capital assets in generating income was seen, as was the possibility of greater poverty reduction from sectors with proportionally fewer intermediate inputs and more value added.
Model farm services centers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Evaluation and the way forward
Rana, Abdul Wajid; ul Haq, Zahoor; Iqbal, Javed; Shazad, Muhammad Faisal; Haider, Syed Zeeshan. Washington, DC; Mardan, Pakistan 2023
Rana, Abdul Wajid; ul Haq, Zahoor; Iqbal, Javed; Shazad, Muhammad Faisal; Haider, Syed Zeeshan. Washington, DC; Mardan, Pakistan 2023
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136840
Abstract | View
The sub-national Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan enacted Farm Services Centers Act, 2014, to establish Model Farm Services Centers (MFSCs) and Farm Services Centers as “one stop-shop” based on public-private partnership principle to strengthen extension system. The aim of these Centers is to empower small farmers at a platform to enhance their knowledge and skills and availability of quality agricultural inputs as stipulated in Section 4(g) of the Act, 2014, that each FSC shall “purchase certified seed, fertilizers, animal husbandry services, quality veterinary heath care services and medicines, farm machinery, expertise and technology for provision to the members who are registered with the Centre on affordable rates in comparison to open market rates”. The objective is to improve rural livelihoods, and development of the rural economy.
Crowding in private quality: The equilibrium effects of public spending in education
Andrabi, Tahir; Bau, Natalie; Das, Jishnu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Khwaja, Asim Ijaz . 2023
Andrabi, Tahir; Bau, Natalie; Das, Jishnu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Khwaja, Asim Ijaz . 2023
Food demand elasticities by income group by urban and rural populations for Pakistan
Bouis, Howarth E.. 1992
Bouis, Howarth E.. 1992
DOI : 10.30541/v31i4IIpp.997-1017
More is not enough: High quantity and high quality antenatal care are both needed to prevent low birthweight in South Asia
Neupane, Sumanta; Scott, Samuel; Piwoz, Ellen; Kim, Sunny S.; Menon, Purnima; Nguyen, Phuong Hong. 2023
Neupane, Sumanta; Scott, Samuel; Piwoz, Ellen; Kim, Sunny S.; Menon, Purnima; Nguyen, Phuong Hong. 2023
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001991
Abstract | View
Antenatal care (ANC) is an opportunity to receive interventions that can prevent low birth weight (LBW). We sought to 1) estimate LBW prevalence and burden in South Asia, 2) describe the number of ANC visits (quantity) and interventions received (quality), and 3) explore associations between ANC quantity, quality and LBW. We used Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Afghanistan (2015), Bangladesh (2018), India (2016), Nepal (2016), Pakistan (2018) and Sri Lanka (2016) (n = 146,284 children <5y). Women were categorized as follows: 1) low quantity (<4 ANC visits) and low quality (<5 of 10 interventions received during ANC), 2) low quantity and high quality (≥5 of 10 interventions), 3) high quantity (≥4 visits) and low quality, 4) high quantity and high quality. We used fixed effect logistic regressions to examine associations between ANC quality/quantity and LBW (<2500 grams). LBW prevalence was highest in Pakistan (23%) and India (18%), with India accounting for two-thirds of the regional burden. Only 8% of women in Afghanistan received high quantity and high quality ANC, compared to 42–46% in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, 65% in Nepal and 92% in Sri Lanka. Compared to the low quantity/quality reference group, children of women with high quantity/quality ANC had lower odds of LBW in India (Adjusted Odds Ratio 0.84, 95% CI 0.78–0.89), Nepal (0.57, 0.35–0.94), Pakistan (0.45, 0.23–0.86), and Sri Lanka (0.73, 0.57–0.92). Low quantity but high quality ANC was protective in India (0.90, 0.84–0.96), Afghanistan (0.53, 0.27–1.05) and Pakistan (0.49, 0.23–1.05). High quantity but low quality ANC was protective in Sri Lanka (0.76, 0.61–0.93). Neither frequent ANC without appropriate interventions nor infrequent ANC with appropriate interventions are sufficient to prevent LBW in most South Asian countries, though quality may be more important than quantity. Consistent measurement of interventions during ANC is needed.
Fragility, conflict, and migration
Kosec, Katrina; Laderach, Peter; and Ruckstuhl, Sandra. 2023
Kosec, Katrina; Laderach, Peter; and Ruckstuhl, Sandra. 2023
Abstract | View
Fragility, Conflict, and Migration addresses challenges to livelihood, food, and climate security faced by some of the most vulnerable populations worldwide. The Initiative focuses on building climate resilience, promoting gender equity, and fostering social inclusion. It forms part of CGIAR’s new Research Portfolio, delivering science and innovation to transform food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis.
Assessing the hidden burden and costs of COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia: Implications for health and well-being of women, children and adolescents
Owais, Aatekah; Rizvi, Arjumand; Jawwad, Muhammad; Horton, Susan; Das, Jai K.; Merritt, Catherine; Moreno, Ralfh; Asfaw, Atnafu G.; Rutter, Paul; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Menon, Purnima; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.. 2023
Owais, Aatekah; Rizvi, Arjumand; Jawwad, Muhammad; Horton, Susan; Das, Jai K.; Merritt, Catherine; Moreno, Ralfh; Asfaw, Atnafu G.; Rutter, Paul; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Menon, Purnima; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.. 2023
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001567
Abstract | View
The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected vulnerable populations. With its intensity expected to be cyclical over the foreseeable future, and much of the impact estimates still modeled, it is imperative that we accurately assess the impact to date, to help with the process of targeted rebuilding of services. We collected data from administrative health information systems in six South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka), to determine essential health services coverage disruptions between January–December 2020, and January–June 2021, compared to the same calendar months in 2019, and estimated the impact of this disruption on maternal and child mortality using the Lives Saved Tool. We also modelled impact of prolonged school closures on continued enrollment, as well as potential sequelae for the cohort of girls who have likely dropped out. Coverage of key maternal and child health interventions, including antenatal care and immunizations, decreased by up to 60%, with the largest disruptions observed between April and June 2020. This was followed by a period of recovery from July 2020 to March 2021, but a reversal of most of these gains in April/May 2021, likely due to the delta variant-fueled surge in South Asia at the same time. We estimated that disruption of essential health services between January 2020 and June 2021 potentially resulted in an additional 19,000 maternal and 317,000 child deaths, an increase of 19% and 13% respectively, compared to 2019. Extended school closures likely resulted in 9 million adolescents dropping out permanently, with 40% likely being from poorest households, resulting in decreased lifetime earnings. A projected increase in early marriages for girls who dropped out could result in an additional 500,000 adolescent pregnancies, 153,000 low birthweight births, and 27,000 additional children becoming stunted by age two years. To date, the increase in maternal and child mortality due to health services disruption has likely exceeded the overall number of COVID-19 deaths in South Asia. The indirect effects of the pandemic were disproportionately borne by the most vulnerable populations, and effects are likely to be long-lasting, permanent and in some cases inter-generational, unless policies aimed at alleviating these impacts are instituted at scale and targeted to reach the poorest of the poor. There are also implications for future pandemic preparedness.
How relative poverty influences responses to social protection programmes: Evidence from Pakistan
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyungjung. 2023
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyungjung. 2023
Abstract | View
Since the COVID-19 pandemic global income inequality has again started to rise—a trend exacerbated by the food and fertiliser crisis caused by Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine (The Economist 2022). Increasingly common disasters (many climate-related) across the globe – such as Pakistan’s devastating 2022 floods (UNICEF 2023), ongoing severe drought in the Horn of Africa (UN News 2022), and the recent earthquake in Syria and Turkey (Francis et al. 2023) – also disproportionately affect already vulnerable groups (UNDRR 2023). Such events tend to further exacerbate the gulf between the rich and the poor. This trend toward greater income inequality is notable, given a growing body of research has demonstrated that citizens’ support for and trust in government is heavily influenced by real as well as perceived income inequality (Gimpelson and Treisman 2018, Healy et al. 2017).
Trust in government is essential for a functioning democracy. It is also critical for the economy - for example, Fukuyama (1996) highlights how social trust plays a role equal to that of physical capital in determining economic prosperity. Governments often address poverty and inequality through redistributive social protection programmes, including cash transfer programmes. Can such programmes foster trust in government amid increasing inequality? Evans et al. (2019) show that they can increase trust in leaders and perceptions of leaders’ responsiveness and honesty among recipients. But the empirical evidence is mixed, and other studies show that this does not occur consistently (Freeland 2007, Ellis and Faricy 2011, Zucco 2013).
Understanding of how economic welfare affects political attitudes and behaviour continues to evolve. Classical economic voting theory focuses on absolute welfare, holding that citizens reward the government for good economic outcomes and punish it for bad ones. However, an emerging literature in political science suggests that perceived relative wellbeing – how people see themselves compared with others – is also important in shaping citizens’ assessments of their political leaders and institutions.
In Kosec and Mo (2023), we studied how Pakistan’s national unconditional cash transfer programme, the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), affected political attitudes. Specifically, we considered that cash from the government might have different effects on its recipients according to how economically well off they felt relative to others (and thus presumably how in need and deserving of a cash transfer they felt).
Trust in government is essential for a functioning democracy. It is also critical for the economy - for example, Fukuyama (1996) highlights how social trust plays a role equal to that of physical capital in determining economic prosperity. Governments often address poverty and inequality through redistributive social protection programmes, including cash transfer programmes. Can such programmes foster trust in government amid increasing inequality? Evans et al. (2019) show that they can increase trust in leaders and perceptions of leaders’ responsiveness and honesty among recipients. But the empirical evidence is mixed, and other studies show that this does not occur consistently (Freeland 2007, Ellis and Faricy 2011, Zucco 2013).
Understanding of how economic welfare affects political attitudes and behaviour continues to evolve. Classical economic voting theory focuses on absolute welfare, holding that citizens reward the government for good economic outcomes and punish it for bad ones. However, an emerging literature in political science suggests that perceived relative wellbeing – how people see themselves compared with others – is also important in shaping citizens’ assessments of their political leaders and institutions.
In Kosec and Mo (2023), we studied how Pakistan’s national unconditional cash transfer programme, the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), affected political attitudes. Specifically, we considered that cash from the government might have different effects on its recipients according to how economically well off they felt relative to others (and thus presumably how in need and deserving of a cash transfer they felt).
Is greater decisionmaking power of women associated with reduced gender discrimination in South Asia?
Smith, Lisa C.; Byron, Elizabeth. Washington, DC 2005
Smith, Lisa C.; Byron, Elizabeth. Washington, DC 2005
Abstract | View
To investigate this issue, the study draws on Demographic and Health Survey data collected during the 1990s in four countries: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. The main empirical technique employed is multivariate regression analysis with statistical tests for significant differences in effects for girl and boy children. A total of 30,334 women and 33,316 children under three years old are included in the analysis. The study concludes that, for the South Asia region as a whole, an increase in women’s decisionmaking power relative to men’s, if substantial, would be an effective force for reducing discrimination against girl children.
Antenatal care is associated with adherence to iron supplementation among pregnant women in selected low-middle-income-countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America & the Caribbean regions: Insights from Demographic and Health Surveys
Karyadi, Elvina; Reddy, J. C.; Dearden, Kirk A.; Purwanti, Tutut; Asri, Eriana; Roquero, Loreto B.; Juguan, Jocelyn A.; Sapitula-Evidente, Anjali; Alam, M. K.; Das, Susmita; Nair, Gopa K.; Srivastava, Anuj; Raut, Manoj K.. 2023
Karyadi, Elvina; Reddy, J. C.; Dearden, Kirk A.; Purwanti, Tutut; Asri, Eriana; Roquero, Loreto B.; Juguan, Jocelyn A.; Sapitula-Evidente, Anjali; Alam, M. K.; Das, Susmita; Nair, Gopa K.; Srivastava, Anuj; Raut, Manoj K.. 2023
DOI : 10.1111/mcn.13477
Abstract | View
Anaemia is a global public health problem affecting 800 million women and children globally. Anaemia is associated with perinatal mortality, child morbidity and mortality, mental development, immune competence, susceptibility to lead poisoning and performance at work. The objective of this article is to identify whether antenatal care-seeking was associated with the uptake of iron supplementation among pregnant women, adjusting for a range of covariates. This article used data from the cross-sectional recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 12 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean regions. The individual-level data from 273,144 women of reproductive age (15−49 years) were analysed from multi-country DHS. Multiple Logistic regression analyses were conducted using Predictive Analytics Software for Windows (PASW), Release 18.0. Receiving at least four antenatal care visits was significantly associated with the consumption of 90 or more iron-containing supplements in 12 low and middle income countries across three regions after adjusting for different household and respondent characteristics, while mass media exposure was found to be a significant predictor in India and Indonesia. Antenatal care seems to be the most important predictor of adherence to iron intake in the selected countries across Africa, Asia, Latin America and Caribbean regions.
Does relative deprivation condition the effects of social protection programs on political support? Experimental evidence from Pakistan
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. Article in press
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. Article in press
DOI : 10.1111/ajps.12767
Abstract | View
Could perceived relative economic standing affect citizens’ support for political leaders and institutions? We explore this question by examining Pakistan's national unconditional cash transfer program, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). Leveraging a regression discontinuity approach using BISP's administrative data and an original survey experiment, we find that perceptions of relative deprivation color citizen reactions to social protection. When citizens do not feel relatively deprived, receiving cash transfers has little sustained effect on individuals’ reported level of support for their political system and its leaders. However, when citizens feel relatively worse off, those receiving cash transfers become more politically satisfied while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. Moreover, the magnitude of the reduction in political support among non-beneficiaries is larger than the magnitude of the increase in political support among beneficiaries. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising perceived inequality.
A 2019-20 social accounting matrix for Balochistan, Pakistan
Toori, Shafaq; Akram, Iqra; Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed; Tauqir, Aisha; Raja, Sehrish; Gill, Sitara; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2023
Toori, Shafaq; Akram, Iqra; Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed; Tauqir, Aisha; Raja, Sehrish; Gill, Sitara; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2023
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136549
Abstract | View
This paper documents the different steps followed to construct Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Balochistan for the year 2019-20. More precisely, it describes the estimation methods and the nature of the data used in developing the SAM at the subnational level. The Balochistan SAM includes 13 production activities, 4 factors of production, 4 household groups and rest of the world account, assessing linkages between production, factor income distribution, and households’ incomes and expenditures, and capturing distributional effects. The Balochistan SAM reveals that the shares of services and manufacturing sector remains lower than national average and there is an overwhelming contribution of the livestock and horticulture sector in the subnational economy which has the potential in boosting national livestock and horticulture exports. Further, the consumption pattern in Balochistan supports Engle’s law of consumption showing that with an increase in households’ income, the share of expenditure on food decreases and consumption of non-food items increases.
This paper is organized as follows. The first section presents an overview of Balochistan province of Pakistan. The second Section highlights the background of Social Accounting Matrix and its key features. The third section review the literature and various efforts made to develop Pakistan SAM with varying features. The fourth section describes the process and the methodology used to develop SAM. The fifth section presents the structure of Balochistan SAM, accounts, and data sources and elaborates the process and techniques used to balance Balochistan SAM. The sixth section highlights the structure of Balochistan’s economy and an evaluation of value addition. The seventh section underscores the key findings of Balochistan SAM. The final section underlines how the SAM Balochistan can contribute to evidence-based policy making that helps in economic growth and reducing poverty in Balochistan.
This paper is organized as follows. The first section presents an overview of Balochistan province of Pakistan. The second Section highlights the background of Social Accounting Matrix and its key features. The third section review the literature and various efforts made to develop Pakistan SAM with varying features. The fourth section describes the process and the methodology used to develop SAM. The fifth section presents the structure of Balochistan SAM, accounts, and data sources and elaborates the process and techniques used to balance Balochistan SAM. The sixth section highlights the structure of Balochistan’s economy and an evaluation of value addition. The seventh section underscores the key findings of Balochistan SAM. The final section underlines how the SAM Balochistan can contribute to evidence-based policy making that helps in economic growth and reducing poverty in Balochistan.
Policy framework for contract farming: An alternate to Aarthi system in Pakistan
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. Washington, DC 2022
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136547
Abstract | View
Global agricultural production is undergoing a remarkable shift due to globalization and market liberalization (Setboonsarng et al., 2008). Food markets are transforming from a ‘non-programmed to programmed’ regime stemming from overwhelming changes in demand patterns happening concurrently with variations in production dynamics internationally (Oostendorp, 2018). This presents both the challenge and opportunity to change and adapt to this more structured world to reap benefits for both smallholder farmers and exporters (Setboonsarng et al., 2008).
Understanding local food systems in South Asia: An assessment approach and design
Gupta, Manavi; Kishore, Avinash; Scott, Samuel; Chakraborty, Shreya; Chellattan, Prakashan Veettil; Choudhury, Samira; Krupnik, Timothy; Kumar, Neha; Neupane, Sumanta; Patwardhan, Sharvari; Sununtnasuk, Celeste; Urfels, Anton; Menon, Purnima. Washington, DC 2022
Gupta, Manavi; Kishore, Avinash; Scott, Samuel; Chakraborty, Shreya; Chellattan, Prakashan Veettil; Choudhury, Samira; Krupnik, Timothy; Kumar, Neha; Neupane, Sumanta; Patwardhan, Sharvari; Sununtnasuk, Celeste; Urfels, Anton; Menon, Purnima. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136543
Abstract | View
Home to one-quarter of humanity—one-fifth of whom are youth—South Asia has the world’s largest concentration of poverty and malnutrition (1–3). Despite producing one-quarter of the world’s consumed food, the region’s agrifood systems face formidable challenges in producing an adequate and affordable supply of the diverse foods needed for sustainable healthy diets (4,5). Unhealthy food consumption is rising, and farming systems are threatened by unsustainable groundwater withdrawal due to poorly developed food and energy policies. In addition, South Asia’s farmers are both contributors and victims of climate change and extreme weather, which contributes to rural out-migration—particularly of youth—resulting in rising labor scarcity and increased production costs.
TAFSSA (Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia), a CGIAR Regional Integrated Initiative, aims to address these challenges by delivering actionable evidence and scalable innovations across these regions through a coordinated program of research and engagement from farmer to consumer.
One of the roadblocks to addressing these challenges is the lack of credible and high-resolution data on food systems in the region. The TAFSSA food systems assessment aims to provide a reliable, accessible and integrated evidence base that links farm production, market access, dietary patterns, climate risk responses, and natural resource management in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. It is intended to be a multi-year assessment.
TAFSSA (Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia), a CGIAR Regional Integrated Initiative, aims to address these challenges by delivering actionable evidence and scalable innovations across these regions through a coordinated program of research and engagement from farmer to consumer.
One of the roadblocks to addressing these challenges is the lack of credible and high-resolution data on food systems in the region. The TAFSSA food systems assessment aims to provide a reliable, accessible and integrated evidence base that links farm production, market access, dietary patterns, climate risk responses, and natural resource management in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. It is intended to be a multi-year assessment.
Availability of data on diets in South Asia: A data availability assessment for Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan
Scott, Samuel; Neupane, Sumanta; Menon, Purnima; Kishore, Avinash; Krupnik, Timothy. Washington, DC 2022
Scott, Samuel; Neupane, Sumanta; Menon, Purnima; Kishore, Avinash; Krupnik, Timothy. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136544
Abstract | View
ABOUT THIS NOTE
This research note presents findings on the availability of diet-related data in publiclyavailable population-based surveys conducted in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan in the last decade. It is intended to be used by researchers and policymakers to understand the data landscape and identify measurement priorities for future surveys.
KEY FINDINGS
• Data on diets for older children and adolescents are captured less frequently than
for younger children and women of reproductive age.
• Data are mostly available on food group consumption and for infants and young
children; data on consumption of unhealthy foods is poor.
• Few surveys capture quantity of foods consumed; estimating nutrient intake from
population-based surveys is therefore not possible.
• Only Bangladesh currently has large-scale publicly available and repeated rounds of
data on dietary intakes for multiple age groups.
• Dietary data are essential to shape public policy on nutrition; financial and technical
investments are needed to scale up data availability in South Asia.
This research note presents findings on the availability of diet-related data in publiclyavailable population-based surveys conducted in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan in the last decade. It is intended to be used by researchers and policymakers to understand the data landscape and identify measurement priorities for future surveys.
KEY FINDINGS
• Data on diets for older children and adolescents are captured less frequently than
for younger children and women of reproductive age.
• Data are mostly available on food group consumption and for infants and young
children; data on consumption of unhealthy foods is poor.
• Few surveys capture quantity of foods consumed; estimating nutrient intake from
population-based surveys is therefore not possible.
• Only Bangladesh currently has large-scale publicly available and repeated rounds of
data on dietary intakes for multiple age groups.
• Dietary data are essential to shape public policy on nutrition; financial and technical
investments are needed to scale up data availability in South Asia.
Horticulture policy for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Raja, Sehrish; Qureshi, Tehseen. Washington, DC 2022
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Raja, Sehrish; Qureshi, Tehseen. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136463
Abstract | View
Pakistan’s rich soil and four seasons are favorable for horticulture. The country’s horticultural sector: (a) benefits from favourable and diversified agroecological conditions; (b) geographically and strategically well placed to enhance its exports to highly competitive but lucrative markets like Middle East, Afghanistan, Iran, China, Central Asian Republics, Europe and Far East; and (c) plays a major socioeconomic role in Pakistan, in particular for women’s economic empowerment. While Pakistan is a major producer of horticultural products, its tremendous export potential remains largely untapped. The sector’s structure, the characteristics and varieties of the Fruits and Vegetables (F&V) grown locally, and the way in which F&V are being cultivated, aggregated, and transported have a huge bearing on the sector’s trade performance and have a tremendous impact on its competitiveness. The production base is highly fragmented, with approximately 85% of the orchards having an area of less than 12.5 acres.
Cash transfers and women’s agency: Evidence from Pakistan’s BISP program
Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan. Article in press
Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan. Article in press
DOI : 10.1086/722966
Data availability on Nutrition Sensitive Social Protection Programs (NSSPPs) across population-based surveys in South Asia
Neupane, Sumanta; Scott, Samuel; Jangid, Manita; Shapleigh, Sara; Kim, Sunny S.; Akseer, Nadia; Heidkamp, Rebecca A.; Menon, Purnima. Washington, DC 2022
Neupane, Sumanta; Scott, Samuel; Jangid, Manita; Shapleigh, Sara; Kim, Sunny S.; Akseer, Nadia; Heidkamp, Rebecca A.; Menon, Purnima. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136412
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Social safety nets (SSN) are cash or in-kind/food transfer programs designed to help individuals and households cope with chronic poverty, destitution, and vulnerability (World Bank, 2018). Some of these social protection programs include conditions or additional interventions that can enhance their impact on nutrition. Examples include attending health and nutrition services, targeting households with nutritionally vulnerable members (e.g., pregnant, and lactating women, children under 24 months), administration of transfers in a ender-sensitive manner, distributing transfers during periods of seasonal or climatic vulnerability, and focusing on emergencies (Ruel & Alderman, 2013; Alderman, 2016) developed a framework that identifies which of the World Bank ASPIRE categories of social safety nets have the potential to be nutrition sensitive. These are captured in six broad categories with multiple program subcategories (Table 1).
Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty
Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2022
Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136406
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Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing uncertainty, which in turn is fueling volatility in global commodity and financial markets. Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen sharply driven largely by this conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia. Export bans and disruptions in global trade and international supply chains have also contributed to rising prices having implications for economic and food security for countries like Pakistan. This price shock came at a time when the fragile economy of the country was recovering from the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with the threat of climate change (severe heat wave in March-April 2022 and cataclysmic floods in August-September 2022) Price shock has affected the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Balance of Payments since Pakistan is a net importer of oil, LNG, edible oil, and now wheat and may impact economic growth in FY2023. In March 2022, per barrel price of oil saw an increase of 59 percent (USD118) as compared to December 2021. It is estimated that ‘as long as the conflict in Ukraine rages on, oil prices will remain above USD100/barrel, even though they are closer to USD90/barrel in October 2022. In 2022, gas prices are expected to increase by at least 50 percent, especially in Europe, where they have increased by more than 2.5 times in the last year due to its heavy dependency on Russian energy’.2 Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022. The CAD increased from USD 3.1 billion in FY2021 to 17.7 billion in FY2022. However, excluding the impact of oil and edible oil, the CAD could have fallen to around USD 7.7 billion. The increase in administered prices of fuel and electricity as well as shortages in wheat production has increased food inflation from 16.6 percent in September 2021 to 28.6 percent in September 2022 (YoY) while the overall CPI increased from 9.0 to 23.2 percent during the same period. Pakistan’s trade volume with Ukraine and Russia has been rising. During the last 24 years, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Ukraine was USD 800 million including USD 739 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). Likewise, the trade with Russia was USD 711 million including USD 537 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports).
The adoption of laser land leveler technology and its impact on groundwater use by irrigated farmland in Punjab, Pakistan
Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Mugera, Amin; Pandit, Ram; Burton, Michael; Davies, Stephen. 2022
Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Mugera, Amin; Pandit, Ram; Burton, Michael; Davies, Stephen. 2022
DOI : 10.1002/ldr.4290
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This paper investigates the factors that influence the adoption of laser land levelers and their impact on groundwater usage in the Punjab Province of Pakistan. A farm household survey of 504 agriculture producers was conducted in 2019. A discrete-time duration model is used to investigate factors influencing the speed of adoption and an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model is used to evaluate its impact on groundwater usage. About 70% of the surveyed households adopted the technology, and the average time to adoption was 9 years. Key factors accelerating the speed of adoption include strong legal land rights, access to information about the technology, and exposure to the technology. In contrast, long distance to rental market deaccelerates the speed of adoption. The adoption of laser land leveler reduced groundwater use by about 23%. The results imply that institutional arrangements, such as improving access to extension services, exposure to innovation, and legal land rights, can enhance the adoption and diffusion of the technology and conserve groundwater.
Seed system of Pakistan: Policy challenges and prospects
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. Washington, DC 2022
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.136381
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The seed industry in Pakistan has undergone significant developments since the 1950s and has transitioned from ‘Green Revolution’ to ‘Gene Revolution’. The 2015 amendment in the Seed Act, 1976, and the enactment of Plant Breeders’ Rights Act and Rules have provided long awaited intellectual property protection for proprietary seed. Notwithstanding this fundamental change, the challenge of effective enforcement of intellectual property rights remains. This paper presents how the seed industry has evolved over the years through evaluating the regulatory and institutional framework along with looking into the major challenges that still plague the seed system of Pakistan. It also explores how the private sector can be incentivized to invest in the seed sector while protecting the farmers’ rights. Findings reveal that there seems to be a lot of scope for strengthening the seed system of Pakistan via encouraging private sector participation mainly through developing proactive markets with strong institutional mechanism along with scientific and time bound regulatory approval framework. An appraisal of the international best practices divulges that technological backstopping, developing public-private partnerships, building institutional capacity for effective enforcement of regulatory regime and availability of information to farmers for selecting quality seed are equally vital for creating a well-functioning seed system in Pakistan
Climate action
Hafeez, Mohsin; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Ringler, Claudia. 2022
Hafeez, Mohsin; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Ringler, Claudia. 2022
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It will come as no surprise to much of Pakistan’s population that their country ranks among the lowest for disaster risk management for water security in Asia, according to the Asian Water Development Outlook (AWDO). Following the extreme heatwave of May – the city of Jacobabad hit 51 degrees C on May 14 – Pakistanis are now experiencing the most extreme flooding of their lifetime. These were two systemic, interlinked extreme events, with the hotter air earlier in the year holding more moisture and melting glaciers foreshadowing the floods.
Developing strategies to commercialise biofortified crops and foods
Nyangaresi, Annette M.; Friesen, Valerie M.; McClafferty, Bonnie; van der Merwe, Charl; Haswell, Daniel; Reyes, Byron; Mudyahoto, Bho; Mbuya, Mduduzi N. N.. Geneva, Switzerland 2022
Nyangaresi, Annette M.; Friesen, Valerie M.; McClafferty, Bonnie; van der Merwe, Charl; Haswell, Daniel; Reyes, Byron; Mudyahoto, Bho; Mbuya, Mduduzi N. N.. Geneva, Switzerland 2022
DOI : 10.36072/wp.28
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Biofortification (or nutrient enrichment) of staple crops has the potential to contribute to reducing micronutrient deficiencies by increasing micronutrient intakes. In 2019, GAIN and HarvestPlus entered a partnership to lead the Commercialisation of Biofortified Crops (CBC) Programme, which aims to catalyse commercial markets for biofortified crops in six countries across Africa and Asia. During the CBC programme inception phase, information on the value chains and their challenges and opportunities for commercialisation were collected for each country-crop combination through literature reviews and third party-led commercialisation assessments. In this paper, we summarise the processes undertaken to identify the potential opportunities and barriers for commercialisation and describe how the findings were used to develop commercialisation strategies for nine country-crop combinations.
Using a programme impact pathway to design, monitor, and evaluate interventions to commercialise biofortified crops and foods
Friesen, Valerie M; Mudyahoto, Bho; Birol, Ekin; Nyangaresi, Annette M; Reyes, Byron; Mbuya, Mduduzi N. N.. Geneva, Switzerland 2022
Friesen, Valerie M; Mudyahoto, Bho; Birol, Ekin; Nyangaresi, Annette M; Reyes, Byron; Mbuya, Mduduzi N. N.. Geneva, Switzerland 2022
DOI : 10.36072/wp.29
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Using a theory of change (TOC; a simplified definition of how and why an intervention is expected to work) or a programme impact pathway (PIP; a more detailed description of the causal pathways through which an intervention is delivered) to guide design, monitoring, and evaluation efforts is increasingly being used across various nutrition interventions, yet there are few documented examples in biofortification programmes. During the inception phase of the Commercialisation of Biofortified Crops (CBC) programme, which aims to scale up production and consumption of biofortified foods in six countries in Africa and Asia, a PIP was developed and used to inform the design of commercialisation strategies and their monitoring and evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe that process. Using a generic TOC for biofortification as a starting point, we developed detailed PIPs for each of the nine country-crop combinations. Within each PIP, we identified the commercial pathway(s) and selected the one(s) with the most potential for impact. We then identified the binding constraint along each pathway and a set of activities and resources to tackle it. This process formed the basis of the country-crop commercialisation strategies and associated workplans. Additionally, we developed a monitoring reference manual that included a set of standardised indicators mapped to the PIP and detailed indicator reference sheets. These tools were contextualised for each country-crop combination and formed the basis of the programme’s monitoring and evaluation plans. Using a PIP to guide the development of programme strategies and measurement of achievements is good practice to ensure that programmes have high potential for impact and that relevant information needed to understand the evolution of results along the PIP is collected throughout programme implementation.
South Asia
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2005
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2005
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IFPRI has had a long presence in South Asia, identifying ways to eliminate the deep-seated poverty in the region, exploring the impact of the Green Revolution, and undertaking major work on subsidies, trade, markets, nutrition, adoption of agricultural technology, and other issues critical for the region. Over the last few years, IFPRI has intensified its activities in South Asia, given the persistence of poverty in the region and the new opportunities and challenges it faces. This renewed commitment is exemplified by IFPRI’s South Asia Initiative (an effort to bring together IFPRI staff and researchers and policymakers from the region in a more focused way) and by its South Asia office, opened in New Delhi this past March.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Food Outlook Report (Rabi) 2022 - Rabi crops 2021-22
Raja, Sehrish; Tauqir, Aisha; Qureshi, Tehseen; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2022
Raja, Sehrish; Tauqir, Aisha; Qureshi, Tehseen; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135955
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A Food Outlook report explains the crop situation with in specific geographical boundaries. It identifies the past trends in area, production, yield, and price and predict future trends based on past values, thereby helping the government entities to make well informed decisions and farm growers to maximize profitability. The purpose of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Food Outlook Report is to understand the trends and forecasts relating to area, production, yield, and price of four major rabi crops of KP i.e., wheat, gram, garlic, and onion for 2021-22 cropping season. The report provides commodity balance sheet showing changes in crop stocks, utilization, and output. Moreover, the forecasts analysis may help in anticipating any upcoming shock related to food demand and supply. It also helps farmers to take advantage of emerging opportunities and prevent themselves from any anticipated losses.
A priority sector
Gill, Sitara; Rana, Abdul Wajid. 2022
Gill, Sitara; Rana, Abdul Wajid. 2022
Abstract | View
Pakistan is mainly an agricultural economy. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2020-21, agriculture accounts for a share of 19.2 percent in GDP and constitutes a significant portion of exports at 60 percent. The agriculture sector is a major employer in the country with a bulk of 45 percent in the labour force and a source of livelihood for about 68 percent of the rural population.
The adoption of laser land leveler technology and its impact on groundwater use in irrigated farmland in Punjab, Pakistan
Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Mugera, Amin; Pandit, Ram; Burton, Michael; Davies, Stephen. 2022
Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Mugera, Amin; Pandit, Ram; Burton, Michael; Davies, Stephen. 2022
DOI : 10.1002/ldr.4290
Abstract | View
their impact on groundwater usage in the Punjab Province of Pakistan. A farm household survey of 504 agriculture producers was conducted in 2019. A discrete-time duration model is used to investigate factors influencing the speed of adoption and an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model is used to evaluate its impact on groundwater usage. About 70% of the surveyed households adopted the technology, and the average time to adoption was 9 years. Key factors accelerating the speed of adoption include strong legal land rights, access to information about the technology, and exposure to the technology. In contrast, long distance to rental market deaccelerates the speed of adoption. The adoption of laser land leveler reduced groundwater use by about 23%. The results imply that institutional arrangements, such as improving access to extension services, exposure to innovation, and legal land rights, can enhance the adoption and diffusion of the technology and conserve groundwater.
Promoting oil seed crops in Pakistan: Prospects and constraints
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. Washington, DC 2022
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Gill, Sitara; Akram, Iqra. Washington, DC 2022
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.135063
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Oilseeds in Pakistan characterizes a policy failure as the production of oilseeds as well as edible oil has been on the decline despite various initiatives. The country has been augmenting growing demand-supply gap through imports since early 1970. The domestic production contributes only 13-15 percent of the total consumption while 85-87 percent is met through imports. Per capita consumption of vegetable oil has risen from 5.31 kg in 1973-74 to 20 kg in 2018 and is likely to move to 22 kg by 2028 projecting total consumption to 6.5 million tons by 2028 against current local production of less than 0.5 million tons, widening the demand-supply gap further. The import bill for these products has reached over US$4 billion in FY2021 which is straining the balance of trade and the balance of payment. With global uncertainties and challenges facing the oilseeds sector including the sharp price fluctuations and market instability and favorable tariffs for imports, the import bill is likely to move upward underscoring the need for well thought out policy and planning.
Unequal coverage of nutrition and health interventions for women and children in seven countries
Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Singh, Nishmeet; Scott, Samuel; Neupane, Sumanta; Jangid, Manita; Walia, Monika; Menon, Purnima. 2022
Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Singh, Nishmeet; Scott, Samuel; Neupane, Sumanta; Jangid, Manita; Walia, Monika; Menon, Purnima. 2022
DOI : 10.2471/2FBLT.21.286650
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Objective: To examine inequalities and opportunity gaps in co-coverage of health and nutrition interventions in seven countries.
Methods: We used data from the most recent (2015–2018) demographic and health surveys of mothers with children younger than 5 years in Afghanistan (n = 19 632), Bangladesh (n = 5051), India (n = 184 641), Maldives (n = 2368), Nepal (n = 3998), Pakistan (n = 8285) and Sri Lanka (n = 7138). We estimated co-coverage for a set of eight health and eight nutrition interventions and assessed within-country inequalities in co-coverage by wealth and geography. We examined opportunity gaps by comparing coverage of nutrition interventions with coverage of their corresponding health delivery platforms.
Findings: Only 15% of 231 113 mother–child pairs received all eight health interventions (weighted percentage). The percentage of mother–child pairs who received no nutrition interventions was highest in Pakistan (25%). Wealth gaps (richest versus poorest) for co-coverage of health interventions were largest for Pakistan (slope index of inequality: 62 percentage points) and Afghanistan (38 percentage points). Wealth gaps for co-coverage of nutrition interventions were highest in India (32 percentage points) and Bangladesh (20 percentage points). Coverage of nutrition interventions was lower than for associated health interventions, with opportunity gaps ranging from 4 to 54 percentage points.
Conclusion: Co-coverage of health and nutrition interventions is far from optimal and disproportionately affects poor households in south Asia. Policy and programming efforts should pay attention to closing coverage, equity and opportunity gaps, and improving nutrition delivery through health-care and other delivery platforms.
Methods: We used data from the most recent (2015–2018) demographic and health surveys of mothers with children younger than 5 years in Afghanistan (n = 19 632), Bangladesh (n = 5051), India (n = 184 641), Maldives (n = 2368), Nepal (n = 3998), Pakistan (n = 8285) and Sri Lanka (n = 7138). We estimated co-coverage for a set of eight health and eight nutrition interventions and assessed within-country inequalities in co-coverage by wealth and geography. We examined opportunity gaps by comparing coverage of nutrition interventions with coverage of their corresponding health delivery platforms.
Findings: Only 15% of 231 113 mother–child pairs received all eight health interventions (weighted percentage). The percentage of mother–child pairs who received no nutrition interventions was highest in Pakistan (25%). Wealth gaps (richest versus poorest) for co-coverage of health interventions were largest for Pakistan (slope index of inequality: 62 percentage points) and Afghanistan (38 percentage points). Wealth gaps for co-coverage of nutrition interventions were highest in India (32 percentage points) and Bangladesh (20 percentage points). Coverage of nutrition interventions was lower than for associated health interventions, with opportunity gaps ranging from 4 to 54 percentage points.
Conclusion: Co-coverage of health and nutrition interventions is far from optimal and disproportionately affects poor households in south Asia. Policy and programming efforts should pay attention to closing coverage, equity and opportunity gaps, and improving nutrition delivery through health-care and other delivery platforms.
What determines the time to gypsum adoption to remediate irrigated salt-affected agricultural lands? Evidence from Punjab, Pakistan
Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Mugera, Amin; Pandit, Ram; Burton, Michael; Davies, Stephen. 2022
Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Mugera, Amin; Pandit, Ram; Burton, Michael; Davies, Stephen. 2022
DOI : 10.1016/j.still.2021.105266
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa food outlook report: Kharif crops 2021-22
Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed; Obaid, Rahema; Davies, Stephen; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2021
Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed; Obaid, Rahema; Davies, Stephen; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134841
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A food outlook report explains the past, current, and future situation of various crops in a specific geographical location. A food outlook report is useful in showing the trends and fluctuations in the cultivated area, production, yield, prices, and other variables. This information is helpful for relevant stakeholders in determining the possible impending shortages or gluts in the food market. A timely analysis on food output and prices can enable policymakers to make wellinformed decisions that can result in controlling market distortions. A major benefit of such reports is that it can predict any anticipated shock or guide about exploiting a growing opportunity. The forecasts conducted in this food outlook report can be helpful in determining the supply and prices of the crops at their harvesting time. To counter a foreseeable shortage or glut, governments can work with the relevant stakeholders to enable timely imports or exports of the crop. One of the main objectives of this paper is to make timely and evidence-based decisions to overcome gaps between food production and consumption growth, and to increase access of the growing population to affordable foods.
Conflict, extremism, resilience and peace in South Asia; can covid-19 provide a bridge for peace and rapprochement?
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Mitra, Arun; Salman, Afsah; Akbari, Fawad; Dalil, Suraya; Menon, Purnima. 2021
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Mitra, Arun; Salman, Afsah; Akbari, Fawad; Dalil, Suraya; Menon, Purnima. 2021
DOI : 10.1136/BMJ-2021-067384
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South Asia, home to 1.97 billion people (25% of the world’s population), is no stranger to conflict and confrontation. Longstanding border disputes (such as between India and China and the decades-old standoff between India and Pakistan), the forced displacement of Myanmar Muslims to Bangladesh, and the 2021 rise of the Taliban triggering a mass exodus of professionals and educated women from Afghanistan underscore the enormous volatility and unpredictability of the region. Climate change poses a further challenge, with the real risk of interstate “water wars.”1 Indeed, South Asia now faces a range of threats, with real risks of these spilling over into interstate conflict.
The links between longstanding conflict, insecurity, and poverty are well recognised.23 Abject poverty, especially when associated with disparities, underlies many of the known conflicts worldwide, unsurprisingly given the drain conflict places on social sector spending. And although lack of social inclusion and ethnic inequalities have been shown to lead to domestic terrorism,4 economic inequalities and grievances are stronger drivers of rebellion,5 and are particularly relevant in South Asia. Despite robust economic growth and progress on many technological fronts, South Asia still has the world’s largest concentrations of poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition, and preventable maternal and child deaths outside sub-Saharan Africa.6 Widespread poverty is closely intertwined with social disparities, marginalisation on the basis of an egregious caste system, and vast inequities that perpetuate disillusionment, grassroot rebellion, and further conflict.
The links between longstanding conflict, insecurity, and poverty are well recognised.23 Abject poverty, especially when associated with disparities, underlies many of the known conflicts worldwide, unsurprisingly given the drain conflict places on social sector spending. And although lack of social inclusion and ethnic inequalities have been shown to lead to domestic terrorism,4 economic inequalities and grievances are stronger drivers of rebellion,5 and are particularly relevant in South Asia. Despite robust economic growth and progress on many technological fronts, South Asia still has the world’s largest concentrations of poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition, and preventable maternal and child deaths outside sub-Saharan Africa.6 Widespread poverty is closely intertwined with social disparities, marginalisation on the basis of an egregious caste system, and vast inequities that perpetuate disillusionment, grassroot rebellion, and further conflict.
Maternal diets in India: Gaps, barriers, and opportunities
Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Kachwaha, Shivani; Tran, Lan Mai; Sanghvi, Tina; Ghosh, Sebanti; Menon, Purnima. 2021
Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Kachwaha, Shivani; Tran, Lan Mai; Sanghvi, Tina; Ghosh, Sebanti; Menon, Purnima. 2021
DOI : 10.3390/nu13103534
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Suboptimal dietary intake is a critical cause of poor maternal nutrition, with several adverse consequences both for mothers and for their children. This study aimed to (1) assess maternal dietary patterns in India; (2) examine enablers and barriers in adopting recommended diets; (3) review current policy and program strategies to improve dietary intakes. We used mixed methods, including empirical analysis, compiling data from available national and subnational surveys, and reviewing literature, policy, and program strategies. Diets among pregnant women are characterized by low energy, macronutrient imbalance, and inadequate micronutrient intake. Supply- and demand-side constraints to healthy diets include food unavailability, poor economic situation, low exposure to nutrition counselling, food restrictions and taboos, adverse family influence and gender norms, and gaps in knowledge. Intervention strategies with potential to improve maternal diets include food-based programs, behavior change communication, and nutrition-sensitive agriculture interventions. However, strategies face implementation bottlenecks and limited effectiveness in real-world at-scale impact evaluations. In conclusion, investments in systems approaches spanning health, nutrition, and agriculture sectors, with evaluation frameworks at subnational levels, are needed to promote healthy diets for women.
Assessment of value chain system for horticulture in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Newly Merged Districts (former FATA)
Rana, Abdul Wajid; ul Haq, Zahoor; Asghar, Sobia; Haider, Zeeshan; Davies, Stephen. Washington, DC 2021
Rana, Abdul Wajid; ul Haq, Zahoor; Asghar, Sobia; Haider, Zeeshan; Davies, Stephen. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134651
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Rapid urbanization and rising income levels in developing countries, such as Pakistan, changing diet habits, information and communication technologies, structural transformation in retail markets as well as export market opportunities are catalyzing dynamic change in horticulture value chains. This is causing a paradigm shift in the way horticulture products are produced, processed, and sold, both within domestic markets and in export markets across the globe. The emergence of local, regional, and global value chains is contributing to increasing engagement of the private sector in horticulture, as these firms and markets look for better quality, greater productivity, efficiency, and market penetration. At the same time, consumers demand for safety, quality, convenience and affordable prices is underlining the role of the private sector in the efficacy of the value chains.
The effect of height on earnings: Is stature just a proxy for cognitive and non-cognitive skills?
Bossavie, Laurent; Alderman, Harold; Giles, John; Mete, Cem. 2021
Bossavie, Laurent; Alderman, Harold; Giles, John; Mete, Cem. 2021
DOI : 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101046
Are data available for tracking progress on nutrition policies and programs in South Asia?
Jangid, Manita; Neupane, Sumanta; Murira, Zivai; Auer, S.R.; Scott, Samuel; Menon, Purnima. New Delhi, India 2021
Jangid, Manita; Neupane, Sumanta; Murira, Zivai; Auer, S.R.; Scott, Samuel; Menon, Purnima. New Delhi, India 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134477
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The World Health Organization (WHO) and other global nutrition and health agencies recommend nutrition actions throughout the life-course to address malnutrition in all its forms. As global recommendations are updated based on available evidence, it is anticipated that governments and stakeholders will, in turn, build on these recommendations to update national policies and programs. Little is known in the South Asia region about policy coherence with globally recommended actions. Even less is known about the degree to which countries are able to track their progress on nutrition actions. To address the gap, this brief summarizes the policy and program gaps in addressing nutrition actions, along with data gaps in population-based surveys in all the countries in the South Asia region, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
Are data available for tracking progress on nutrition policies, programs, and outcomes in Pakistan?
Neupane, Sumanta; Jangid, Manita; Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Kim, Sunny S.; Murira, Zivai; Torlesse, Harriet; Menon, Purnima. New Delhi, India 2021
Neupane, Sumanta; Jangid, Manita; Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Kim, Sunny S.; Murira, Zivai; Torlesse, Harriet; Menon, Purnima. New Delhi, India 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134470
Abstract | View
The World Health Organization (WHO) and other global nutrition and health agencies recommend nutrition actions throughout the life-course to address malnutrition in all its forms. In this report, we examined how Pakistan’s nutrition policies and programs addressed recommended nutrition actions, nutrition outcomes, and the determinants of these outcomes. We reviewed population-based surveys and administrative data systems to assess the availability of data on nutrition actions and on indicators of determinants and outcomes. Our policy review identified a total of 53 recommended evidence-based nutrition actions, of which 51 were applicable to Pakistan; of those, 47 were addressed in nutrition policies and programs. Nutrition actions not included in current policies and programs were: daily iron and folic acid (IFA) supplementation and deworming during preconception; and food supplementation for complementary feeding, and daily IFA supplementation during early childhood. The Pakistan Multi-Sectoral Nutrition Strategy (PMNS) (2018–2025) was found to recognize and address all the key determinants of nutrition; it also expressed an intent to address all the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) nutrition targets for maternal, infant, and young child nutrition. Targets for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) were not currently set in the national strategies. Our data review found that, out of 47 actions that policies and programs addressed, population-based surveys contained data on 26 actions and administrative data sources contained data on 22 actions. Neither surveys nor administrative sources contained data on any actions aimed at adolescence, on energy and protein dietary supplements, on various types of counseling, on birth preparedness during pregnancy, or on optimal timing (delayed) of umbilical cord clamping; they also did not contain data on indicators related to newborn care, IFA supplementation around delivery and in the postpartum period, or counseling after growth monitoring during early childhood. The data gaps in population-based surveys on nutrition actions during early childhood were compensated for by the data on these nutrition actions that was available from administrative sources. Neither of the population-based surveys contained data on nutrition actions during early childhood such as breastfeeding counseling, counseling on appropriate complementary feeding, growth monitoring, and identification and management of severe acute malnutrition (SAM), or management of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM); administrative data sources, however, contained data on these actions. Population-based surveys contained data on most of the indicators on immediate and underlying determinants of undernutrition, but administrative data sources lacked data on indicators of immediate determinants. Population-based surveys contained data on all outcome indicators. In conclusion, Pakistan’s policy landscape for nutrition is robust, but there is limited consideration of targets for NCDs. The gaps in data availability for tracking progress on nutrition are much greater than are the gaps in policies and programs for addressing the recommended actions. Future population-based surveys and future modifications of other data systems should aim to fill the identified data gaps for nutrition actions.
Rural Finance Policies 1 - The demand for financial services by the rural poor
Zeller, Manfred; Sharma, Manohar. Washington, D.C. 2000
Zeller, Manfred; Sharma, Manohar. Washington, D.C. 2000
Abstract | View
This policy brief summarizes lessons learned from IFPRI's multicountry program on rural finance and household food security with regard to the poors’ demand for financial services. The lessons are derived from detailed household surveys conducted in nine countries of Asia and Africa: Bangladesh, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Ghana, Madagascar, Malawi, Nepal, and Pakistan.
Food trade openness and enhancement of food security: Partial equilibrium model simulations for selected countries
Fathelrahman, Eihab; Davies, Stephen; Muhammad, Safdar. 2021
Fathelrahman, Eihab; Davies, Stephen; Muhammad, Safdar. 2021
DOI : 10.3390/su13084107
Abstract | View
This research measured the welfare impacts of food trade liberalization in India, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) using the partial equilibrium model—World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Macroeconomic settings, domestic policy objectives, and food security indicator data are used to assess the implications of the simulations on food availability and stability. Simulation results for India, Egypt, and Pakistan indicate annual welfare gains (consumer surplus) of 2571, 340, and 25 million USD, respectively, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gains of 14 and 17 million USD. Results show that tariff elimination would have wide-ranging welfare impacts across food commodities within these countries. Moreover, reductions for specific commodities directly relevant to food energy and protein availability would have a greater direct impact on the poor. Lowering the highest tariffs on those commodities might raise the real incomes of more than 350 million persons by 7.5% or more and could create shifts in consumption towards more diversified and nutritionally sound diets.
Both quantity and quality of antenatal care matter for child birthweight: An analysis of nationally representative data From Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan
Neupene, Sumanta; Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Menon, Purnima. 2021
Neupene, Sumanta; Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Menon, Purnima. 2021
DOI : 10.1093/cdn/nzab046_091
Abstract | View
Antenatal care (ANC) is an important platform to deliver health and nutrition interventions during pregnancy but there is limited evidence on how both the number and content of ANC visits relate to birth outcomes. We examined the independent and additive contributions of ANC quantity and quality on child birthweight in four South Asian countries.
Proposed Balochistan agriculture policy 2021
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Davies, Stephen. Washington, DC 2021
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Davies, Stephen. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134394
Abstract | View
Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan comprising 44% of the country’s total land mass with a population of 12.34 million (5.9 percent of total population of the country), its southern border of Balochistan makes up two-thirds (770 KM) of the national coastline, giving assess to a large pool of aqua-resources. The province has low population density and provides vast rangeland for goats, sheep, buffaloes, cattle, camels, and other livestock. It is bestowed with natural and locational resources and is the second major supplier of natural gas which supports the country’s industrialization and economic centers. The province also potentially has large deposits of coal, copper, lead, gold, and other minerals. As a frontier province, it is ideally situated for trade with Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf countries, and now with western China through Gwadar Port and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Assessing the economic cost of depleting groundwater in Balochistan: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach
Rizwan, Noormah; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Davies, Stephen; Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Haider, Zeeshan. Washington, DC 2021
Rizwan, Noormah; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Davies, Stephen; Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Haider, Zeeshan. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134349
Abstract | View
Prolonged droughts and depleting groundwater resources have been a serious challenge to the economy of province of Balochistan, Pakistan. Proliferation of tube-wells incentivized by government policy interventions and continued subsidy for electric tube-wells for agriculture and choice for high-water consumption crops have led to steep decline in water tables. This paper uses Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier model approach to simulate impact of declining water tables on the provincial economy, a first ever effort. To capture the impact of declining water tables, increase in shadow prices of groundwater are calculated and the effects are traced on agricultural production. Using these effects, simulations are designed to reflect the impact of water tables’ decline on macroeconomic variables including GDP, government’s revenues/expenditures, households’ income, and net exports. Agricultural policy options are also introduced in the model to explore their effectiveness in mitigating the effects of groundwater exploitation. Effects of non-agricultural policy options such as the debated removal of tube-well subsidy, shifting to non-agricultural sectors and investment in recharge mechanisms are also estimated on the overall provincial economy. Findings from the paper indicate that depleting water tables have adversely affected the provincial economy and the impact of widely recommended agricultural policy is moderate in mitigating these effects. Subsidy rationalization is observed to have substantial impact on GDP, households, and trade balance. However, investment in recharge mechanisms and expansion in processing, manufacturing and services sector can be crucial for the development of the province.
Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan: Water sector challenges in the Indus Basin and impact of climate change
Wahaj, Robina; Habib, Zaigham. Islamabad, Pakistan 2021
Wahaj, Robina; Habib, Zaigham. Islamabad, Pakistan 2021
DOI : 10.4060/cb0718en
Abstract | View
This working paper takes stock of Pakistan's water resource availability, delineating water supply system and its sources including precipitation and river flows, and the impact of increasing climatic variability on the water supply system. In particular, the paper focuses on the current water usage and requirements in the agricultural sector, and how changing climatic conditions will affect the consumption patterns. With inflows expected to become more variable in the coming years, the severity of climatic extremities will become more pronounced, driving up water demands in addition to the demand increase from a rising population and urbanization. Over extraction of groundwater resources is also disturbing the water calculus and pushing the country towards a critical demand-supply gap.
Ways forward to improve water security in Pakistan
Davies, Stephen; Watto, Muhammad Arif; Sattar, Erum. Switzerland 2021
Davies, Stephen; Watto, Muhammad Arif; Sattar, Erum. Switzerland 2021
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-030-65679-9_15
Unlocking economic growth under a changing climate: Agricultural water reforms in Pakistan
Davies, Stephen; Young, William. Switzerland 2021
Davies, Stephen; Young, William. Switzerland 2021
DOI : 10.1007/978-3-030-65679-9_7
A study of commodity debt: The case of Punjab province-Pakistan
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2021
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134320
Abstract | View
The state intervention in the agriculture market and trade policies, including ad-ministered prices or protective trade policies, with the objective of supporting food secu-rity, income generation for growers, and affordability for consumers has a long history. Most of these have been phased out through the late 1980s and 1990s though, wheat (through domestic procurement, temporary import/export control imposing regulatory duties, and sub-sidized sales to select flour mills) and sugarcane (through import tariffs, as well as indicative prices and export subsidies) still are the two major crops with public intervention. In addition, import tariffs and other restrictions protecting dairy products and vegetable oils remains. Be-sides, there are input subsidies on fertilizers, electricity for water pumping1 or implicitly, on canal irrigation water.
Institutional assessment and change: Department of agriculture, government of the Punjab, Pakistan
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2021
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134314
Abstract | View
The enactment of 18th Constitutional Amendment in 2010 was followed by devo-lution of most of the functions of the erstwhile Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Live-stock (MINFAL) to the Provinces and the MINFAL was formally abolished on June 30, 2011. Instead, a new Ministry of National Food Security and Research was established1 for better execution of un-devolved functions as well as attaining and maintaining national food security. The functions assigned to the new Ministry are at Annex-1. This devolution of re-sponsibilities to provinces led to increased attention to agriculture2 with a common notion that there is a significant untapped potential for economic growth and employment creation associ-ated with productivity improvement of traditional crops and importantly diversification to-wards high-value and climate smart agriculture, including livestock, and post-harvest value addition. Unlocking this potential for all these components requires a transformative approach that would include major policy reforms, institutional changes, and a re-orientation of public resources away from wasteful subsidies to smart subsidies and productive public investments.
Restructuring and revamping of Agriculture Policy Institute
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Haider, Zeeshan. Washington, DC 2021
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Haider, Zeeshan. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134296
Abstract | View
Agriculture, worldwide, has seen remarkable transformation in farming practices, institutional frameworks and policies during the last three decades. Dynamic international markets and the diffusion of bioinformatics technology are shifting farming towards a new organizational model. Production systems are seeking new forms of coordination and control, increasing demand for traceability of origin, and greater integration into international markets. Public research programs are looking beyond mono-cropping systems toward integration of farming, cattle-raising and forestry and whole agriculture innovation system. Global positioning systems (GPS) and computerized agricultural machinery linked via satellites is promoting precision agriculture where inputs are calibrated exactly to the differences in soil and farm activities while farmers are looking for their linkages with output markets for their produce. Commitments to international agreements and conventions regarding biodiversity, climate change, food security, and land use are creating a new bottom line for agricultural practices. This necessitates a new institutional and regulatory framework.
Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model
Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Haider, Zeeshan; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Rizwan, Noormah; Ejaz, Amna; Davies, Stephen; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2021
Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Haider, Zeeshan; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Rizwan, Noormah; Ejaz, Amna; Davies, Stephen; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2021
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134273
Abstract | View
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones.
Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic.
The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.
Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic.
The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.
COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model
Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Haider, Zeeshan; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Rizwan, Noormah; Davies, Stephen; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2020
Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Haider, Zeeshan; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Rizwan, Noormah; Davies, Stephen; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134244
Abstract | View
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.
Coaching, not monitoring? Insights from a school accountability reform in Pakistan
Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kosec, Katrina; Asad, Saher; Habib, Masooma; Leaver, Clare; ur Rehman, Attique. Washington, DC 2020
Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kosec, Katrina; Asad, Saher; Habib, Masooma; Leaver, Clare; ur Rehman, Attique. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134215
Abstract | View
We evaluate a pilot reform of the promotion system for teachers and head teachers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan, that was implemented as a randomized controlled trial during the 2017-2018 school year. District officials were asked to visit treatment schools to monitor educator behavior and student performance passively. Educators in treatment schools were told that their relative performance on these measures would determine their promotion speed. District officials were asked to continue with 'business as usual' visits in control schools, during which they often coached educators. We find null treatment effects for all pre-registered student and educator outcomes. In-class teaching practices improved from baseline to endline, but these sizeable changes were similar in magnitude in all schools. Videos of inspection visits and follow-up interviews reveal that district officials coached teachers on these practices in all schools, indicating that they struggled to adapt their 'mental model' to the new accountability regime.
Early marriage and early childbearing in South Asia: Trends, inequalities, and drivers from 2005 to 2018
Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Neupane, Sumanta; Pramanik, Priyanjana; Nanda, Priya; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Afsana, Kaosar; Menon, Purnima. 2021
Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Neupane, Sumanta; Pramanik, Priyanjana; Nanda, Priya; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Afsana, Kaosar; Menon, Purnima. 2021
DOI : 10.1111/nyas.14531
Abstract | View
Early marriage (EM) and early childbearing (ECB) have far‐reaching consequences. This study describes the prevalence, trends, inequalities, and drivers of EM and ECB in South Asia using eight rounds of Demographic and Health Survey data across 13 years. We report the percentage of ever‐married women aged 20–24 years (n = 105,150) married before 18 years (EM) and with a live birth before 20 years (ECB). Relative trends were examined using average annual rate of reduction (AARR). Inequalities were examined by geography, marital household wealth, residence, and education. Sociodemographic drivers of changes for EM were assessed using regression decomposition analyses. We find that EM/ECB are still common in Bangladesh (69%/69%), Nepal (52%/51%), India (41%/39%), and Pakistan (37%/38%), with large subnational variation in most countries. EM has declined fastest in India (AARR of –3.8%/year), Pakistan (–2.8%/year), and Bangladesh (–1.5%/year), but EM elimination by 2030 will not occur at these rates. Equity analyses show that poor, uneducated women in rural areas are disproportionately burdened. Regression decomposition analysis shows that improvements in wealth and education explained 44% (India) to 96% (Nepal) of the actual EM reduction. Investments across multiple sectors are required to understand and address EM and ECB, which are pervasive social determinants of maternal and child wellbeing.
Reforming educator accountability systems: Evidence from Pakistan
Asad, Saher; Habib, Masooma; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kosec, Katrina; Leaver, Clare; ur Rehman, Attique. 2020
Asad, Saher; Habib, Masooma; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kosec, Katrina; Leaver, Clare; ur Rehman, Attique. 2020
Abstract | View
Pakistan is a prime example of low learning levels for primary school children (Andrabi et al., 2007). A recent study found that only 50 percent of children in Grade 5 could fill in a missing letter in a four-letter word accompanied by a picture, and only 54 percent could perform simple division (Andrabi et al., 2012). Learning levels are especially low in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province. While in neighbouring Punjab province, 97 percent of Grade 4 math students in rural primary schools can correctly answer a firstgrade question regarding which of 2 boxes has more objects in it, in study districts in KP, that share was just 43 percent.
Mechanisms for increasing the accountability of teachers and schools in rural Pakistan to improve learning outcomes
Asad, Saher; Habib, Masooma; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kosec, Katrina; Leaver, Clare; ur Rehman, Attique. 2020
Asad, Saher; Habib, Masooma; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kosec, Katrina; Leaver, Clare; ur Rehman, Attique. 2020
Abstract | View
Pakistan has extremely low learning levels and poor education service delivery is a driving factor. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) government has expressed a strong desire for evidence on how to design evaluation and oversight systems for the education sector, with the goal of improving learning.
The government has two evaluation and oversight systems that should, in theory, incentivise teacher effort; in practice, they face substantial problems and are ineffective. First, teachers are evaluated annually via Performance Evaluation Report (PER) that feeds into promotion decisions. However, the PER is not teacher-specific, but general to the civil service, and accordingly does not properly measure aspects of teaching. Additionally, PERs are carried out by the headteacher, who – in Pakistani society – is hesitant to criticise colleagues. As a result, all teachers generally receive the same PER score, rendering scores meaningless. Second, a school inspection system exists, but inspections do not occur regularly and there is no guidance on how often or what inspectors should inspect, and how they should report findings.
We will examine two interventions to improve teacher performance and learning outcomes. First, in a random subset of villages, we will introduce teacher-specific performance evaluations (PERs), to be carried out by an independent third party on an unannounced day. Second, in another random subset of villages, we will ensure that meaningful and informative school inspections occur by establishing clear guidelines and evaluation criteria. Teacher evaluation and school inspection outcomes will be linked to faster and slower promotions for teachers and headteachers, respectively. We will work with the government to decide what data to collect and how to provide feedback to the education department and school. In another random subset of villages, we will undertake both interventions. A control group will receive no interventions.
This is the first study seeking to improve both teacher and school (i.e. headteacher) accountability. Literature shows that both levels are important. Teacher accountability reduces absenteeism and improves learning outcomes, and school accountability through improved monitoring has also been shown to improve school performance. However, it is not clear which level is more important in improving performance, nor whether improving accountability at both levels may provide higher value for money, suggesting complementarities. Knowing which levers and the ensuing rewards and sanctions are most effective (and cost-effective) is important both for education economics and for policymakers.
The government has two evaluation and oversight systems that should, in theory, incentivise teacher effort; in practice, they face substantial problems and are ineffective. First, teachers are evaluated annually via Performance Evaluation Report (PER) that feeds into promotion decisions. However, the PER is not teacher-specific, but general to the civil service, and accordingly does not properly measure aspects of teaching. Additionally, PERs are carried out by the headteacher, who – in Pakistani society – is hesitant to criticise colleagues. As a result, all teachers generally receive the same PER score, rendering scores meaningless. Second, a school inspection system exists, but inspections do not occur regularly and there is no guidance on how often or what inspectors should inspect, and how they should report findings.
We will examine two interventions to improve teacher performance and learning outcomes. First, in a random subset of villages, we will introduce teacher-specific performance evaluations (PERs), to be carried out by an independent third party on an unannounced day. Second, in another random subset of villages, we will ensure that meaningful and informative school inspections occur by establishing clear guidelines and evaluation criteria. Teacher evaluation and school inspection outcomes will be linked to faster and slower promotions for teachers and headteachers, respectively. We will work with the government to decide what data to collect and how to provide feedback to the education department and school. In another random subset of villages, we will undertake both interventions. A control group will receive no interventions.
This is the first study seeking to improve both teacher and school (i.e. headteacher) accountability. Literature shows that both levels are important. Teacher accountability reduces absenteeism and improves learning outcomes, and school accountability through improved monitoring has also been shown to improve school performance. However, it is not clear which level is more important in improving performance, nor whether improving accountability at both levels may provide higher value for money, suggesting complementarities. Knowing which levers and the ensuing rewards and sanctions are most effective (and cost-effective) is important both for education economics and for policymakers.
Solarization of electric tube-wells for agriculture in Balochistan: Economic and environmental viability
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Davies, Stephen; Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Rizwan, Noormah. Washington, DC 2020
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Davies, Stephen; Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Shikoh, Sania Haider; Rizwan, Noormah. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.134030
Abstract | View
Balochistan’s agriculture and related economic development during the last four decades has been driven by an enhancement in canal command areas and widespread use of tubewells. While it enabled yield increases and the growth of high value horticulture, it led to excessive mining of ground water. It is not only threatening sustainable agriculture and livelihoods but also creating severe environmental repercussions. It is generally believed that this unchecked groundwater extraction has been a result of policy regime, such as promoting installation of tubewells through various incentive schemes and tubewells subsidy which allows farmers to pay only 5-10% of the actual cost, and as a result the Federal and provincial governments have been paying PKR 23 billion per year.
South Asia is far from achieving universal coverage of essential nutrition interventions: Examining coverage, trends, and inequities, 2005 to 2018
Singh, Nishmeet; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Scott, Samuel; Kim, Sunny S.; Neupane, Sumanta; Murira, Zivai; Heidkamp, Rebecca A.; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Menon, Purnima; Torlesse, Harriet. 2020
Singh, Nishmeet; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Scott, Samuel; Kim, Sunny S.; Neupane, Sumanta; Murira, Zivai; Heidkamp, Rebecca A.; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Menon, Purnima; Torlesse, Harriet. 2020
DOI : 10.1093/cdn/nzaa053_112
Abstract | View
South Asia carries the largest burden of malnutrition globally. Tracking coverage of nutrition interventions is a critical step in designing effective nutrition policies and monitoring progress in the region. This paper examines coverage, trends, and inequities in nutrition interventions in South Asia.
An analysis of nutrition-relevant national policies in South Asia reveals a gap in addressing the essential nutrition actions recommended by World Health Organization (WHO)
Neupane, Sumanta; Jangid, Manita; Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Kim, Sunny S.; Menon, Purnima; Murira, Zivai; Torlesse, Harriet. 2020
Neupane, Sumanta; Jangid, Manita; Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Kim, Sunny S.; Menon, Purnima; Murira, Zivai; Torlesse, Harriet. 2020
DOI : 10.1093/cdn/nzaa064_018
Abstract | View
The WHO recommends Essential Nutrition Actions (ENAs) throughout the life course to tackle malnutrition in all its forms. However, limited evidence exists on the availability of policies to support the implementation of ENAs in South Asia, a region with the highest burden of malnutrition globally. We conducted a policy analysis to assess the extent to which current policies address ENAs for adolescent girls, women, and children in South Asia.
How has early marriage, a critical social determinant of child stunting and wasting, changed over a decade in South Asia? Trends, inequities and drivers, 2005 to 2018
Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Neupane, Sumanta; Pramanik, Priyanjana; Nanda, Priya; Menon, Purnima; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Afsana, Kaosar. 2020
Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Neupane, Sumanta; Pramanik, Priyanjana; Nanda, Priya; Menon, Purnima; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Afsana, Kaosar. 2020
DOI : 10.1093/cdn/nzaa061_112
Abstract | View
In South Asia, many women are married before their 18th birthday and give birth soon after. Delaying marriage is an attractive nutrition policy target as previous research shows that early marriage (EM) is associated with poor child growth outcomes, operating through many pathways. We sought to describe the prevalence, trends, inequities and predictors of EM in South Asia.
Are data available to measure progress in the coverage of essential nutrition actions in South Asia? A review of demographic and health surveys in seven countries, 2005–2018
Jangid, Manita; Neupane, Sumanta; Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Kim, Sunny S.; Menon, Purnima; Torlesse, Harriet; Murira, Zivai; Heidkamp, Rebecca A.. 2020
Jangid, Manita; Neupane, Sumanta; Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong Hong; Kim, Sunny S.; Menon, Purnima; Torlesse, Harriet; Murira, Zivai; Heidkamp, Rebecca A.. 2020
DOI : 10.1093/cdn/nzaa053_052
Abstract | View
South Asian countries carry the largest burden of undernutrition globally. The World Health Organization has recommended a set of Essential Nutrition Actions (ENA) to tackle all forms of malnutrition. Limited evidence exists on the availability of data in nationally representative surveys to analyse coverage patterns and to track progress on these actions.
Pakistan’s cotton and textile economy
Cororaton, Caesar B.; Orden, David. Washington, D.C. 2008
Cororaton, Caesar B.; Orden, David. Washington, D.C. 2008
DOI : 10.2499/9780896291676
Abstract | View
Pakistan’s economy relies heavily on its cotton and textile sectors. The cotton-processing and textile industries make up almost half of the country’s manufacturing base, while cotton is Pakistan’s principal industrial crop, supplying critical income to rural households. Altogether, the cotton-textile sectors account for 11 percent of GDP and 60 percent of export receipts. The future of this vital component of the national economy is uncertain, however. These industries face the challenges of unstable world prices and increased competition resulting from global liberalization of the multilateral textile and clothing trade. At the same time, Pakistan’s macroeconomic situation is volatile. Given such challenges and volatility, this study investigates what the future might hold for Pakistan’s cotton and textile industries and its implications for rural and urban poverty reduction in the country. The study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to a 2001–02 social accounting matrix of the Pakistan economy to conduct experimental simulations of possible economic changes. The CGE model results are linked to the nation-wide 2001–02 Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey to examine the implications the simulated developments have for Pakistani poverty. Simulation 1 examines the effects of a doubling of foreign capital inflows, as occurred from 2002 to 2006, before a subsequent financial crisis emerged in 2008. Simulation 2 analyzes the counterfactual effects of an increase in world prices of cotton lint and yarn and/or textiles which would have offset declines experienced in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Pakistan’s strong textile association motivates Simulation 3, which examines the effects of a 5-percent increase in government production subsidies to the industry. Simulation 4 uses a dynamic-recursive version of the model to analyze the short- and long-run effects of a 5-percent increase of total factor productivity (TFP) in cotton, lint and yarn, and textile production.
Collective action and “social distancing” in COVID-19 responses
Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. 2020
Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. 2020
DOI : 10.1007/s10460-020-10100-1
Abstract | View
Much of my research has been on the need for collective action in managing natural resources, and the value of groups to facilitate collective agency for women’s empowerment. Extensive research has shown that coordination among resource users is necessary to distribute rights and responsibilities for both appropriation and provision of common pool resources, such as for water withdrawals and maintenance of irrigation systems (Anderies and Janssen 2013). And we are learning about the mechanisms through which women’s groups contribute to empowerment, whether through collective enterprises (such as through self-help groups in India), access to finance, acquiring social services, or improving women’s bargaining power in their households (Brody et al. 2017). What happens, then, when people cannot come together in person because of lockdowns to prevent transmission of COVID-19? What happens to the irrigation systems in Nepal and India that need collective labor to repair them? What happens to the women who rely on weekly savings group meetings to build their financial and social capital?
Rationalization of wheat markets in Pakistan: Policy options
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2020
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133728
Abstract | View
While wheat procurement policy is a central part of Pakistan’s agricultural policy, a brief description of its impact does not make for easy reading: it has a high budget cost, has led to a buildup of debt, distorts markets, provides little direct benefit to small farmers and productivity in Pakistan’s wheat sector continues to lag. Furthermore, as Pakistan has gradually moved to producing a wheat surplus, a trend that is likely to continue in the future, the current policy set is likely to become more unsustainable in the future, with the task of squaring the circle between supporting farm incomes, providing fair consumer prices and delivering food security becomes increasingly difficult without reform.
Cotton crop: A situational analysis of Pakistan
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Ejaz, Amna; Shikoh, Sania Haider. Washington, DC 2020
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Ejaz, Amna; Shikoh, Sania Haider. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133702
Abstract | View
Cotton is the most important cash crop in Pakistan and cotton products export account for 55 percent of all foreign exchange earnings of the country. Nearly 26 percent of farmers grow cot-ton, and over 15 percent of total cultivated area is devoted to this crop, with production pri-marily in two provinces. Approximately 65 percent of Pakistan’s cotton is grown in Punjab, which has dry conditions, and the rest is grown in Sindh, which has a more humid climate, with negligible area under cotton in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Cotton production ac-counts for 4.5 percent of the value added in AgGDP and 0.8 per cent of GDP. It serves as the raw material for the textile industry, the country’s largest agro-industrial sector , employs 17 per-cent, earns 60 percent of foreign exchange and contributes 8.5 percent to GDP.
Patterns of regional agri-food trade in Asia
Diao, Xinshen; Li, Ruoxin. Washington, DC 2020
Diao, Xinshen; Li, Ruoxin. Washington, DC 2020
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133699
Abstract | View
This paper analyzes the implication of economic structural change and dietary transformation on changing patterns of agri-food trade among 17 Asian development countries. Sub-regional trade in Central, South, and Southeast Asia is the focus of the paper, along with trade with other partners outside the sub-regions. The paper finds that Asian markets for total agri-food exports and exports of nutritious foods are generally more important than the markets outside of Asia and for many of them, the importance of Asian markets increases over time. While net exporters and importers co-exist in each sub-region, with a few exceptions, sub-regional trade is often less important. Many small countries trade only with one or two large neighbors and less so with each other. The dietary transformation impacts trade in nutritious foods in diverse ways. With income growth, increased domestic demand for nutritious foods seem to lead to more imports of these foods. While many South and Southeast Asian countries have a comparative advantage in exports of some nutritious food products, growth in these exports can be negatively affected by rising domestic demand. Although nutritious food exports continue to play important roles in total agri-food exports, export growth of nutritious food is often slower than overall growth of agri-food exports. The dietary transformation also seems to lead to increases in demand for processed foods which many Asian countries meet through imports, often, accounting for a large component of total agri-food imports. On the other hand, processed foods generally account for a small portion of agri-food exports. However, there are a few countries where processed food export growth is rapid. In these cases, the sub-regional market is expanding, but with few exceptions, it is still less important than trade with countries outside the sub-regions. The paper also finds that agri-food exports and imports are highly concentrated, and a small group of commodities dominate most countries export and import portfolios and remain unchanged over time. The main markets for these important commodities are generally not in the sub-regions and this mismatch between demand and supply of agri-food commodities within sub-region is a natural barrier for promoting regional trade. The modified trade complementary index developed in this paper is based on Michaely (1996) and shows that trade complementarity measures are positively correlated with actual bilateral trade. Small countries tend to enjoy higher levels of complementarity with one or two large trading partners than with other small countries in the same sub-region. This implies that small countries could be better off from bilateral trade arrangements with large partners compared to a regional trade agreement within the sub-region. Because the sub-regional market is oftentimes not large enough to meet large countries’ import demand or consume their export supply, regional trade agreements within sub-regions may be less likely to serve their needs for trade expansion than negotiating with large trading partners outside the sub-regions. While many Asian developing countries’ governments have been pushing for trade diversification and want to reduce export dependencies concentrated on one or two large trading partners, this paper shows the challenges to achieve this policy goal. For small countries, focusing on bilateral trade arrangements with their dominant trading partners seems to be a more practical and effective strategy than regional trade agreements within sub-regions. Long-term trade arrangements, consistent trade policies, and various preferential trade arrangements should be pursued by small countries with their larger trading partners to promote agri-food exports.
Valuation and aspirations for drip irrigation in Punjab, Pakistan
Bell, Andrew R.; Ward, Patrick S.; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Davies, Stephen. 2020
Bell, Andrew R.; Ward, Patrick S.; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Davies, Stephen. 2020
DOI : 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001181
Abstract | View
Modern drip-irrigation technologies improve water-use efficiency while simultaneously transforming areas that are not otherwise irrigable in practice (too distant or too high to be reached by surface waters). Although drip irrigation is expanding rapidly in India, adoption remains low in neighboring Pakistan. To gain deeper insight into the factors constraining adoption of drip irrigation in Pakistan, a discrete choice experiment framed around the hypothetical subsidized purchase of a drip-irrigation system in four districts within Pakistan’s Punjab Province was used. The results show higher valuation of drip systems among new users, which suggests that limited technical support and upstream maintenance facilities are not posing significant barriers to drip-irrigation adoption. It was observed that aspirations for cropping systems under drip were better predictors of farmers’ valuation for drip systems than current cropping patterns, implying that a different agricultural landscape might reasonably emerge under more widespread adoption of drip. Both aspirations were observed for high-value crops such as fruits, as well as lower-value crops such as wheat, under drip systems, suggesting a number of ways through which drip irrigation may transform Pakistan’s agricultural landscape.
Resource allocation for agricultural research in South Asia: Trends, challenges, and policy implications
Stads, Gert-Jan. Dhaka, Bangladesh 2019
Stads, Gert-Jan. Dhaka, Bangladesh 2019
Abstract | View
Quantitative evidence presented in this report demonstrates that total public agricultural research and development (R&D) spending in South Asia has risen considerably since 2000. This trend was largely driven by India, which has the highest investment levels and strongest human resource capacity in agricultural research South Asia by far (in terms of absolute size, average qualification levels of researchers, and the scientific outputs they produce). Compared with India, agricultural R&D faces greater challenges in the four other South Asian countries for which data were available (Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka). Underinvestment in agricultural R&D in these countries is considerable, and agricultural research staff is significantly lessqualified than in India, the combined result of prolonged recruitment freezes, losses of highly qualified senior staff, limited training opportunities, and an aging population of researchers. In addition, political instability in some countries has either delayed or complicated much needed institutional and policy reforms. The scientific competence of South Asia’s agricultural R&D agencies is high, particularly in India, but as in many developing regions of the world, stronger linkages are needed to connect agricultural research agencies and their staff with the end users of their research to improve the relevance, effectiveness, and efficiency of research outputs. Further efforts to strengthen sub-regional linkages are also needed in order to better utilize limited resources and reduce wasteful duplication. In addition, good governance is key to promoting the effectiveness and efficiency of research, and ongoing policy and institutional reform will be needed to further strengthen agricultural R&D and innovation in South Asia.
Is consanguinity an impediment to child development outcomes?
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2019
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2019
Abstract | View
Marriages between blood relatives – also known as consanguineous unions – are widespread in North Africa, Central and West Asia and most parts of South Asia. Researchers have suggested that consanguinity has adverse effects on child development, but assessing its impact is not straightforward as the decision to marry a relative might be endogenous to other socio-economic factors. Using a unique dataset collected in rural Pakistan, this paper assesses the extent to which consanguinity is linked to child cognitive ability and nutritional status. As economic benefits of marrying cousins may lead to upward bias to estimates of the effects of consanguinity on child outcomes, prior work likely underestimates the negative impacts of consanguinity on child outcomes. After controlling for current household wealth and parent education, this paper exploits (current and past) grandfather land ownership and maternal grandparent mortality to identify the effect of endogenous consanguinity on child cognitive ability and height-for-age. Children born into consanguineous unions have lower cognitive scores, lower height-for-age, and a higher likelihood of being severely stunted. More importantly, adverse effects are significantly larger after accounting for the endogeneity of consanguineous unions, suggesting that negative impacts on child development are substantial, and likely to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Reducing incentives for consanguineous unions should therefore be of concern among policy makers aiming at improving child development outcomes where marrying cousins is common.
Is consanguinity an impediment to child development?
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2020
Mete, Cem; Bossavie, Laurent; Giles, John; Alderman, Harold. 2020
DOI : 10.1080/00324728.2019.1699942
Costs of diesel pump irrigation systems in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: What options exist for efficiency gains?
Foster, Tim; Adhikari, Roshan; Urfels, Anton; Adhikari, Subash; Krupnik, Timothy J.. Washington, DC 2019
Foster, Tim; Adhikari, Roshan; Urfels, Anton; Adhikari, Subash; Krupnik, Timothy J.. Washington, DC 2019
Abstract | View
Groundwater irrigation plays a critical role in supporting food security, rural livelihoods and economic development in South Asia. Yet, large disparities in groundwater access and use remain across the region. In the Western Indo-Gangetic Plains (WIGP) of India and Pakistan, subsidized rural electrification and fuel for groundwater pumping has enabled significant growth in agricultural productivity over recent decades (Shah 2007). In many areas, groundwater development has however also contributed to over-extraction and aquifer depletion, especially in the WIGP (MacDonald et al. 2016; Mukherjee et el., 2017). In contrast, groundwater resources in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (EIGP) of Nepal and eastern India remain underexploited; current aggregated rates and areas of irrigation also appear to be only a fraction of estimated development potential (Saha et al., 2016). This limits farmers’ ability to grow crops outside the monsoon season, or to manage risks posed by rainfall
variability and dry spells within the monsoon – both of which contribute to low productivity and rural poverty.
variability and dry spells within the monsoon – both of which contribute to low productivity and rural poverty.
Civil service reforms in Pakistan
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2019
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2019
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133487
Abstract | View
Effective governance is one of the key challenges for both developing and developed countries. Governments, today, are increasingly encountering complex and cross-cutting issues such as economic and financial volatility, internal and external conflicts, growing social tensions, adverse demographic trends, climate change vulnerabilities, weak regulatory regimes, huge infrastructure and service delivery gaps, state and elite capturing and sustaining rule of law. Faced with growing criticism of infectiveness of state institutions undermining country’s economic, social and political development because of weakening capacity of public officials to pace up with emerging challenges, there is a renewed interest in reforming the governance and reforming the civil service.
Creating fiscal space for enhancing public investment in Sindh agriculture sector: A qualitative study of provincial spending in Pakistan
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2019
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2019
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133488
Abstract | View
Agriculture and Irrigation sectors except for national food security and federal agriculture research have been devolved to the provinces following Eighteenth Constitutional Amendment in 2010. The Government of Sindh has approved and notified its first ever Agriculture and Livestock Policy in April 2018. To achieve objectives outlined in the Policy, it is imperative to increase investment in agriculture sector substantially to unleash the full potential of agriculture both for inclusive growth and economic development in the province. Moving towards this desirable goal of enhancing investment in agriculture and irrigation, it is vital to understand current resource sharing between the federation and federating units in Pakistan, gross resources available to the province in a financial year, dynamics of public expenditure allocations at sub-national level, and interplay of diverse interests during the budget process (Fan, Yu, and Saurkar 2008; Mogues 2015). Similarly, budget institutions, electoral system, and political institutions, apart from population composition, play their role in influencing public spending allocations during budget process and imposing constraints. The evidence suggests that budget process and institutions have substantial influence on budget allocation across different sub-regions and sectors. Despite huge transfer of resources to the provinces following the 7th National Finance Commission Award of 2010, the provinces have been underscoring increasing tight fiscal space. Given these pronounced binding constraint and rigid allocation of resources, it is challenging to enhance allocations to achieve desirable policy objectives. In these environments, insight regarding political and budget institutions will help in structural analysis of the budget, rationalization of existing public spending across sectors, and exploring the possibility of fiscal space through resource allocation restructuring. This paper reviews the interaction of political and administrative institutions, allocation of available resources as well as public spending trends and identify the fiscal space that could possibly be made available for enhanced allocation to agriculture, livestock, fisheries and irrigation in Sindh. Section 2 provides the structure of province of Sindh’s economy and various challenges confronting it. Section 3 reviews resources available, inter-mediation of budget institutions for resource allocation, public investment and structure of spending in Sindh; both recurrent and development. Section 4 highlights the subsidies in agriculture, particularly the subsidies on fertiliser, wheat farmers and millers, and irrigation. Section 5 looks at the taxes related to agricultural land and revenues collected. Section 6 estimates the fiscal space within existing resources that can be made available for enhanced investment in agriculture and irrigation.
Temporary and permanent migrant selection: Theory and evidence of ability‐search cost dynamics
Chen, Joyce J.; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. 2019
Chen, Joyce J.; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. 2019
DOI : 10.1111/rode.12617
Comprehensive institutional review for climate resilient agriculture
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2019
Rana, Abdul Wajid; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2019
Abstract | View
Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change impacts. Like many developing countries, it is also facing the challenge of dealing with governance of climate change and restructuring associated institutions. It is estimated that the future cost of climate impact would be around $6 billion to $14 billion annually over the next 40 years. Ministry of Climate Change is now focusing in creating necessary infrastructure and platforms for policy decisions and implementation.
Strategies and mechanisms for mainstreaming climate change into agriculture and irrigation sector reforms
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2019
Rana, Abdul Wajid. Washington, DC 2019
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133441
Abstract | View
Global warming is unequivocal, and since 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere has warmed (0.85oC over the period 1883 to 2012). Glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide. The amounts of snow and ice have diminished. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. The sea level has risen and on a global scale, the ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by 0.11°C per decade over the period 1971 to 2010. The increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, driven largely by economic and population growth, together with other anthropological drivers have caused changes in climate system. Continued emission of greenhouse gases is expected to cause further warming and changes in the climate system increasing the possibilities of severe and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystem. Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century (0.3 to 1.7oC) and it is likely that heat waves will occur more frequently and last longer. The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century, with the strongest warming projected for the surface in tropical and Northern Hemisphere subtropical regions. The global glacier volume excluding glaciers on the periphery of Antarctica (and excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets) is projected to decrease by 15 to 55%.1 Therefore, limiting climate change would need substantial and sustained reduction in greenhouse gas emissions through adaptation and mitigation strategies. These include innovation and investment in environmentally sound technologies and infrastructure, sustainable livelihoods and behavioural and lifestyles choices as well as effective institutions and governance.
IFPRI in Asia
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2019
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2019
Abstract | View
Highlights of IFPRI’s current cutting-edge, policy-relevant research in Central, East, South, and Southeast Asia are featured in this brochure. IFPRI works with partners throughout Asia to contribute to effective policies, programs, and investments that help ensure all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food across the continent.
Building climate resilience in the agriculture sector of Asia and the Pacific
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Asian Development Bank (ADB). Manila, Philippines 2009
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Asian Development Bank (ADB). Manila, Philippines 2009
Abstract | View
Climate change is threatening food production systems and therefore the livelihoods and food security of billions of people who depend on agriculture in the Asia and Pacific region (hereafter, Asia and the Pacific). Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on climate and weather and because people involved in agriculture tend to be poorer compared with urban residents. Consistent warming trends and more frequent and intense extreme weather events have been observed across Asia and the Pacific in recent decades. In line with these trends, climate change scenarios consistently project temperature increases across the region, which will require farmers to adapt to changing conditions. At the same time, agricultural activities release significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere. Asia and the Pacific accounts for 37% of the world’s total emissions from agricultural production, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) alone accounts for more than 18% of the total.
Transgenic cotton and farmers’ health in Pakistan
Kouser, Shahzad; Spielman, David J.; Qaim, Matin. 2019
Kouser, Shahzad; Spielman, David J.; Qaim, Matin. 2019
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0222617
Abstract | View
Despite substantial research on the economic effects of transgenic insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton, there is still limited work on this technology’s impacts on human health. Due to the inbuilt insect resistance, Bt cotton requires fewer pesticide sprays than conventional cotton, which is not only advantageous from economic and environmental perspectives, but may also result in health benefits for farmers. Using socioeconomic and biophysical data from Pakistan, we provide the first evidence of a direct association between Bt gene expression in the plant and health benefits. A key feature of this study is that Bt cotton cultivation in Pakistan occurs in a poorly regulated market: farmers are often mistaken in their beliefs about whether they have planted Bt cotton or conventional cotton, which may affect their pesticide-use strategies and thus their pesticide exposure. We employ a cost-of-illness approach and variations in the measurement of Bt adoption to estimate the relationship between Bt cotton and farmers’ health. Bt adoption based on farmers’ beliefs does not reduce the pesticide-induced cost of illness. However, adoption based on measuring Bt gene expression is associated with significant health cost savings. Extrapolating the estimates for true Bt seeds to Pakistan’s entire Bt cotton area results in annual health cost savings of around US$ 7 million. These findings have important implications for the regulation of seed markets in Pakistan and beyond: improved regulations that ensure claimed crop traits are really expressed can increase the benefits for farmers and society at large.
La banca para los pobres
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2003
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2003
Abstract | View
This policy brief is designed to help policymakers and practitioners understand the financial services needed by the poor. It is based on a five-year IFPRI research program that examined, among other issues, the roles government should play in providing financial services to meet the needs of the poor, through a series of detailed household surveys conducted in nine countries of Africa and Asia: Bangladesh, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Ghana, Madagascar, Malawi, Nepal, and Pakistan.... [The brief asks us to consider these questions:] What kinds of financial services do the poor value? What economic activities are the poor engaged in, and what implications does this have for the type of services to be provided? What are existing sources of financial services, and how do the poor use them? What combination of financial instruments—credit, savings, insurance — are best developed, given specific demand from different types of clients? Do delivery systems (credit union, village banking, group-based lending) take into account the prevailing socioeconomic environments or local organizational systems? What unconventional methods do the poor use to secure loans? Can these collateral substitutes be used within a more formalized banking system? In the lending or granting of public resources, are incentives in place to encourage competitive, sustainable, efficient, and entrepreneurial microfinance institutions? Are regulations in place that govern mutually supportive transactions between the clients (borrowers) and institutions (lenders), such as deposit insurance and contract enforcement? Are prudential regulations, such as accounting practices and reporting requirements, balanced so that they ensure sustainability, good management, and accountability of microfinance institutions without stifling innovation? Would the introduction or expansion of microfinance services in a region be one of the most socially cost-effective ways to alleviate poverty there, given the state of infrastructure and markets, the availability of services, and the existence of other antipoverty and development programs in the region?
Does relative deprivation condition the effects of social protection programs on political attitudes? Experimental evidence from Pakistan
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. Washington, DC 2019
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. Washington, DC 2019
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133270
Abstract | View
Why might citizens fail to reward incumbents for providing private goods? While extant literature on the political consequences of targeted government welfare programs has focused on attribution challenges and low levels of civic education and engagement, we offer an additional explanation related to perceived inequality, or the feeling that one is poor relative to other citizens. Leveraging a regression discontinuity design and a survey experiment, we identify the causal effects of a large cash transfer program in Pakistan when relative deprivation is and is not pronounced. When relative deprivation is not salient, we find that cash transfers have little effect on attitudes toward government. However, when relative deprivation is salient, those receiving cash transfers experience increased support for their political leaders and institutions, while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising inequality and social protection programs.
Pakistan: Getting more from water
Young, William J.; Anwar, Arif; Bhatti, Tousif; Borgomeo, Edoardo; Davies, Stephen. Washington, DC 2019
Young, William J.; Anwar, Arif; Bhatti, Tousif; Borgomeo, Edoardo; Davies, Stephen. Washington, DC 2019
Abstract | View
This report builds on prior work to provide a new, comprehensive, and balanced view of water security in Pakistan, stressing the importance of the diverse social, environmental, and economic outcomes from water. The report highlights the complex water issues that Pakistan must tackle to improve water security and sheds new light on conventional assumptions around water. It seeks to elevate water security as an issue critical for national development. The report assesses current water security and identifies important water-related challenges that may hinder progress in economic and human development. It identifies unmitigated water-related risks, as well as opportunities where water can contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. The report analyzes how the performance and architecture of the water sector are related to broader economic, social, and environmental outcomes. It models alternative economic trajectories to identify where intervention can lead to a more water-secure future. A consideration of water sector architecture and performance and how these determine outcome leads to recommendations for improving aspects of sector performance and adjusting sector architecture for better outcomes. The sector performance analysis considers (a) management of the water resource, (b) delivery of water services, and (c) mitigation of water-related risks. The description of sector architecture considers water governance, infrastructure, and financing.
Household labor supply and social protection: Evidence from Pakistan’s BISP cash transfer program
Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan. Washington, DC 2019
Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan. Washington, DC 2019
DOI : 10.2499/p15738coll2.133153
Abstract | View
Cash transfers are a key component of social protection policy in many developing countries. Yet many policymakers are concerned that continued receipt of such transfers may have unintended consequences, such as a reduction in labor supply when household income rises. We study this question by evaluating the impact of Pakistan’s Benazir Income Support Program(BISP), a cash transfer program targeted to poor, married women,on male and female labor supply. The BISP was implemented via a mechanism that reliedon a poverty score cutoff to determine eligibility, allowing for the identification of causal impacts using regression discontinuity. We find no impacts on household labor supply in the aggregate. When we break up estimates by gender, we find littleevidence of a changein female labor supply, strongevidence of increased male labor supply, and no evidence of changes to child labor. Hence, policy makers should not be concerned that BISP transfers negatively affect labor supply among recipients.
A teacher unlike me: Social distance, learning, and intergenerational mobility in developing countries
Karachiwalla, Naureen. 2019
Karachiwalla, Naureen. 2019
DOI : 10.1086/698131
The impact of Bt Cotton on farmers’ health in Pakistan
Spielman, David J.; Kouser, Shahzad. 2018
Spielman, David J.; Kouser, Shahzad. 2018
South Asia Regional Office (SAR)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2018
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, DC 2018
Abstract | View
Achieving food and nutrition security is a complex challenge. This is especially true in South Asia, where 40 percent of the world’s poor—who survive on less than US$1.25 a day—live and 21 percent of the population is undernourished. Yet countries in South Asia have seen marked improvements in socioeconomic development in recent years. South Asia encompasses only 3 percent of the world’s land, but is home to about a quarter of the world’s population (1.6 billion people). While agriculture is a critical component of food and nutrition security, it is interlinked with water, energy, infrastructure, and policy challenges. Apart from this, natural resources are under additional pressure due to population growth, income growth, urbanization, changing consumer preferences, and climate change. Against this backdrop, the IFPRI South Asia Regional Office (SAR) in New Delhi engages in evidence-based policy research and capacity-building activities related to food and nutrition security in the region. The research focuses on agricultural diversification, climate change, markets and trade, nutrition and health, science and technology, and governance, contributing directly to the strategic research areas established by IFPRI’s 2018–2020 Strategy.
Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015-2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis
Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain; Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam; Harijan, Khanji; Walasai, Gordhan Das; Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Sahin, Hasret. 2018
Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain; Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam; Harijan, Khanji; Walasai, Gordhan Das; Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Sahin, Hasret. 2018
DOI : 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.012
Moving to despair? Migration and well-being in Pakistan
Chen, Joyce; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. 2019
Chen, Joyce; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. 2019
DOI : 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.007
Abstract | View
Internal migration has the potential to substantially increase incomes, especially for the poor in developing countries, and yet migration rates remain low. We evaluate the impact of internal migration on both objective and subjective measures of well-being using a unique longitudinal study in rural Pakistan spanning 1991–2013. We account for selection using covariate matching. Migrants have roughly 35–40 percent higher consumption, yet are less likely to report being happy, calm and/or in excellent health, and more likely to report having been sick recently. Our results suggest that deteriorating physical health coupled with feelings of stress and relative deprivation underlie the disparity between objective and subjective well-being. Thus, despite substantial monetary gains from migration, people may be happier and less mentally distressed by remaining at home. If traditional market mechanisms cannot reduce psychic costs, it may be more constructive to address regional inequality by shifting production – rather than workers – across space.
Water security and irrigation investment: Evidence from a field experiment in rural Pakistan
Xu, Wenchao; Li, Man; Bell, Andrew Reid. 2019
Xu, Wenchao; Li, Man; Bell, Andrew Reid. 2019
DOI : 10.1080/00036846.2018.1513634
Costs of undernutrition in Pakistan
Saeed, Wajiha; Davies, Stephen; Shahzad, Saqib; Moeen, Muhammad Saad. Washington, DC 2018
Saeed, Wajiha; Davies, Stephen; Shahzad, Saqib; Moeen, Muhammad Saad. Washington, DC 2018
Abstract | View
Undernutrition leads to large monetary costs to an economy, which come most directly from higher mortality/premature death, a higher incidence of illnesses, and lower productivity due to nutritional deficiencies. Undernutrition among children also contributes to costs in the education system due to poorer performance at school and hence more grade repetitions and lower educational levels. These outcomes result in an estimated total economic cost of as much as Rs. 704.3 billion (Table 1) resulting from losses of earnings/productivity, health costs, and education costs. The following describes the estimation of these costs.
Growth and poverty reduction in Pakistan
Saeed, Wajiha; Davies, Stephen. Washington, DC 2018
Saeed, Wajiha; Davies, Stephen. Washington, DC 2018
Abstract | View
Over the last two decades, Pakistan has made significant progress in reducing all measures of poverty. The consumption-based poverty headcount decreased from 57.9% in 1998-99 to 29.5% in 2013-14, while the incidence of multidimensional poverty has declined from 55.2% in 2004-05 to 38.8% in 2014-15. However, as noted by the World Bank and the 2015-16 Economic Survey from the Ministry of Finance, much of the population remains in poverty or could fall into poverty if economic conditions worsened. Simultaneously, measures of inequality have risen. In comparison to 1987-88, the richest 20% now consume seven times more than the poorest 20%, and, while multidimensional poverty is less than 10% in major cities, it is more than 90% in some districts. Furthermore, Pakistan has experienced structural changes such that the share of services in total GDP has grown considerably. Agriculture’s contribution to GDP declined from 22.9% to 18.9%2 over the period 2003-04 to 2017-18. Yet, the labor force is still employed in agriculture, as its share in total employment has only seen a marginal decline, from 43.1% in 2003-04 to
42.3%.
42.3%.
Political competition and rural welfare: Evidence from Pakistan
Kosec, Katrina; Haider, Hamza; Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima . 2018
Kosec, Katrina; Haider, Hamza; Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima . 2018
DOI : 10.1093/oep/gpy013
Abstract | View
Can stronger political competition improve rural livelihoods in developing countries? We explore this question in rural Pakistan, showing that greater political competition in a Provincial Assembly (PA) constituency predicts significantly better access to publicly-provided infrastructure and amenities, but no changes in other public goods including perceived access to justice and security. Nonetheless, overall welfare effects appear to be positive: higher political competition predicts higher expenditures per capita, especially among land-poor households. It also predicts higher land values, greater land wealth, and lower land wealth inequality. Further, political competition increases land rental, possibly indicating improved functionality of land markets. Sensitivity analyses suggest that our estimates are unlikely to be substantially affected by omitted variable bias, and they are further similar to instrumental variables estimates. The findings are also robust to use of alternate measures of political competition. Greater provision of both public and private goods appears to explain welfare improvements.
Nutrition history in Pakistan
Turab, Ali; Tahir, Saman; Zaidi, Shujaat. Washington, DC 2018
Turab, Ali; Tahir, Saman; Zaidi, Shujaat. Washington, DC 2018
DOI : 10.2499/1041943677
Abstract | View
The Government of Pakistan (GoP) has begun to place increasing policy focus on nutrition and food security. Despite periods of high growth, Pakistan failed to achieve commensurate reductions in the prevalence of undernutrition, stunting among children, and child mortality. To accelerate progress in these areas, Pakistan joined the international Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement, set up Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) monitoring units, and has developed Multi-Sectoral Nutrition Strategies (MSNS) in each province. In this research note, we analyze the nutrition history in Pakistan before and after devolution.
Household preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for freshwater quality improvement in Pakistan’s Swat River Valley
Shah, Syed A.; Hoag, Dana L. K.; Davies, Stephen. 2016
Shah, Syed A.; Hoag, Dana L. K.; Davies, Stephen. 2016
DOI : 10.1007/s10668-015-9687-1
Rehabilitating agriculture and promoting food security following the 2010 Pakistan floods
Dorosh, Paul A.; Malik, Sohail; Krausova, Marika. Washington, D.C. 2010
Dorosh, Paul A.; Malik, Sohail; Krausova, Marika. Washington, D.C. 2010
Abstract | View
The recent floods in Pakistan have had a devastating effect on the Pakistani population. The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA 2010) estimates that, as of early September 2010, more than 20 million people had been displaced by the flood and by some estimates the damage to crops, housing, other buildings, roads, and irrigation infrastructure now reaches $6.5 billion (OCHA 2010).* Recovery experiences from previous natural disasters in Pakistan and throughout South Asia, especially the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan and the 1998 flood in Bangladesh, suggest lessons in four broad areas that are relevant for recovery efforts following the 2010 Pakistan flood. First, market and trade policies should be clear, transparent, and consistent, maintaining adequate price incentives so that private trade and imports can contribute to postdisaster recovery. Restoration of private trade (and even promotion of expansion of trade) can enhance both price stability and food security more effectively and at far less cost than otherwise, particularly in the rehabilitation phase. Recovery experiences from previous natural disasters in Pakistan and throughout South Asia, especially the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan and the 1998 flood in Bangladesh, suggest lessons in four broad areas that are relevant for recovery efforts following the 2010 Pakistan flood. Second, there is a need for a strong institutional framework to coordinate the large-scale disaster response. Long-term and short-term goals need to be accounted for and integrated into a comprehensive postdisaster response framework. Involvement of all affected stakeholders in the policy formulation is important to ensure representation and participation. Third, recovery efforts should also include support for livelihood security and restoration and ensure inclusion of the stakeholders. In the immediate aftermath of the floods, a provision of compensation based on loss of livelihoods might be necessary to assist affected groups. Alternative strategies for the poor to cope with the loss of income need to be examined (including credit provision) so as to avoid high and unsustainable household indebtedness. Fourth, evaluation of previously implemented projects suggests that focus on not only restoring infrastructure facilities but also upgrading them can lead to enhanced flood resistance as well as a reduction in future disaster loss. In addition, the resumption of normal agricultural activities as soon as possible is vital for the country's recovery. The provision of inputs to affected smallholders is necessary for the resumption of normal livelihood activities. The 2010 Pakistan National Disaster Response Plan incorporates some of these lessons learned from earlier disasters. However, despite the establishment of national and sub-national disaster management authorities, significant challenges to the functioning of this system still remain. Two alternative institutions present themselves as possible vehicles for the delivery of poverty-alleviating interventions and resources-the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) and the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP). PPAF uses a participatory and community-based model and comprises a network of more than 130,000 community organizations and groups in 127 districts covering 30,000 villages. This large and established network puts PPAF in a convenient position to reach affected communities in a timely and efficient manner. BISP has a partnership with the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) that is being used to provide necessary financial support to flood victims throughout the country. However, there are several obstacles to the successful disbursement of funds through BISP. In particular, because a large percentage of displaced people do not possess computerized national identity cards, these people could be excluded from the income support programs unless a new comprehensive listing is done. Finally, it is important to establish and strengthen disaster response capability so that the country can better respond to recurring natural disasters. Emergency early warning system mechanisms have the potential to substantially reduce casualties and economic losses from disasters, and they need to be strengthened. Likewise, the lessons learned from the relief and rehabilitation response to the 2010 floods should be incorporated in contingency plans for future natural disasters.
The effect of height on earnings: Is stature just a proxy for cognitive and non-cognitive skills?
Bossavie, Laurent; Alderman, Harold; Giles, John; Mete, Cem. Washington, D.C. 2017
Bossavie, Laurent; Alderman, Harold; Giles, John; Mete, Cem. Washington, D.C. 2017
Guiding groundwater policy in the Indus Basin of Pakistan using a physically based groundwater model
Khan, Hassaan F.; Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Ringler, Claudia; Wi, Sungwook; Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Basharat, Muhammad. 2017
Khan, Hassaan F.; Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Ringler, Claudia; Wi, Sungwook; Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Basharat, Muhammad. 2017
DOI : 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000733
When prosperity leads to disaffection: Evidence from Pakistan
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung; Healy, Andrew. 2017
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung; Healy, Andrew. 2017
Cotton-Textile-Apparel sectors of Pakistan
Cororaton, Caesar B.; Salam, Abdul; Altaf, Zafar; Orden, David; Dewina, Reno; Minot, Nicholas; Nazli, Hina. Washington, D.C. 2008
Cororaton, Caesar B.; Salam, Abdul; Altaf, Zafar; Orden, David; Dewina, Reno; Minot, Nicholas; Nazli, Hina. Washington, D.C. 2008
Abstract | View
"Cotton, textiles, and apparel are critical agricultural and industrial sectors in Pakistan. This study provides descriptions of these sectors and examines the key developments emerging domestically and internationally that affect the challenges and opportunities they face. One-quarter of Pakistani farmers, of whom about 40 percent have household incomes below the poverty line, grow cotton. Export controls and taxes kept cotton prices below international levels until the mid-1990s but have subsequently tracked export parity international levels following reforms to trade and pricing policies and a greater role for the private sector. Pakistani farmers have not formally adopted genetically modified Bt cotton but there is some field evidence of its unregulated use. Despite constraints in its production, storage, and ginning sectors, the production of cotton yarn increased at an annual rate of 4.7 percent during 1990-2005 and Pakistan's share of world output increased to nearly 10 percent. Cotton-related products account for nearly 60 percent of Pakistan's export earnings. The textile industry still produces mostly fabrics of relatively low count (low quality) although it has been successful in expanding its exports of some higher-value products. The industry will need further entrepreneurial initiatives to remain competitive in international markets. Among the farm households that produce cotton, about 40 percent of total income comes from its production. The decline in world prices that occurred in the late 1990s adversely affected these households. Household-level simulations suggest that a counterfactual 20 percent increase of cotton prices, which reflects the extent to which real cotton prices declined in Pakistan during this period, would have reduced the percentage of cotton-producing households below the poverty line in 2001 from 40 percent to 28 percent. The estimated effect from declining cotton prices explains about one-sixth of the overall observed increase of rural poverty in the period." --from authors' abstract
Moving to despair?: Migration and well-being in Pakistan
Chen, Joyce; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. Bonn, Germany 2017
Chen, Joyce; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. Bonn, Germany 2017
Economic development, mobility, and political discontent: An experimental test of Tocqueville’s thesis in Pakistan
Healy, Andrew; Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. 2017
Healy, Andrew; Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. 2017
DOI : 10.1017/S000305541700017X
Reconstructing annual groundwater storage changes in a large-scale irrigation region using GRACE data and Budyko model
Tang, Yin; Hooshyar, Milad; Zhu, Tingju; Ringler, Claudia; Sun, Alexander Y.; Long, Di; Wang, Dingbao. 2017
Tang, Yin; Hooshyar, Milad; Zhu, Tingju; Ringler, Claudia; Sun, Alexander Y.; Long, Di; Wang, Dingbao. 2017
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.06.021
Factors influencing the productivity and efficiency of wheat farmers in Punjab, Pakistan
Battese, George E.; Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. 2017
Battese, George E.; Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. 2017
DOI : 10.1108/JADEE-12-2013-0042
Grain marketing parastatals in Asia
Rashid, Shahidur; Cummings, Jr., Ralph; Gulati, Ashok. Washington, D.C. 2005
Rashid, Shahidur; Cummings, Jr., Ralph; Gulati, Ashok. Washington, D.C. 2005
Abstract | View
Using case studies from six Asian countries, this paper (a) assesses the relevance of underlying rationales for public intervention in foodgrain markets, (b) documents the existing policies and regulations that support operation of grain parastatals, (c) provides estimates of benefits and costs of parastatals, and (d) compares experiences of countries that liberalized (or reduced intervention) with the ones that continue to have significant presence of parastatals. Our results suggest that conditions in the region have improved significantly over the past thirty years; and none of the four commonly agreed rationales—that is, poorly integrated domestic markets, thin and volatile world market, promoting modern technology and the scarcity of foreign exchange reserves—for public intervention in foodgrain markets are now persuasive. Domestic foodgrain markets are integrated, international markets for both wheat and rice are significantly more robust than they were thirty years ago, High-Yielding Varieties (HYV) now cover practically all of the high potential area sown to wheat and rice; and foreign currency reserves have increased dramatically in all countries in recent years. However, although rationales have lost their significance, many countries continue to practice old policies and provide regulatory supports to parastatals, including monopoly control over international trade, preferential access to transportation, restrictions on movement of foodgrains, and cheap or interest-free credit. Relative to the private sector, the costs of the grain parastatals have been high and are increasing, as special interests and rent- seeking are increasingly dictating their operation. This is being manifested in various forms, such as excessive public stocks in India, vacillating import policies in Indonesia and Pakistan, questionable government foodgrain import decisions in the Philippines, and politically-determined ceiling and floor prices in India. On the other hand, the experiences of Bangladesh and Vietnam, both of which have implemented extensive reforms over the last fifteen years, suggest that reduced government intervention can promote competition in the domestic markets, reduce subsidies, and release funds for development and anti-poverty programs without jeopardizing price stability. The paper concludes that reforms are overdue and the delay in changing the old ways of doing price stabilization will be increasingly wasteful.
What are farmers really planting? Measuring the presence and effectiveness of Bt cotton in Pakistan
Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima; Zambrano, Patricia; Khan, Asif Ali; Ali, Shaukat; Cheema, Masooma Naseer; Nazli, Hina; Khan, Sohail Ahmad; Iqbal, Arshad; Zia, Muhammad Amir; Ali, Ghulam Muhammad. 2017
Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima; Zambrano, Patricia; Khan, Asif Ali; Ali, Shaukat; Cheema, Masooma Naseer; Nazli, Hina; Khan, Sohail Ahmad; Iqbal, Arshad; Zia, Muhammad Amir; Ali, Ghulam Muhammad. 2017
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0176592
Can agricultural aspirations influence preferences for new technologies?
Bell, Andrew R.; Ward, Patrick S.; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Davies, Stephen. Washington, D.C. 2017
Bell, Andrew R.; Ward, Patrick S.; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Davies, Stephen. Washington, D.C. 2017
Abstract | View
In the face of increasing environmental stresses, there is a critical need to improve water-use efficiency in many arid and semiarid agroclimatic zones. Drip irrigation is a high-efficiency irrigation technology that can improve water-use efficiency in currently irrigated areas and transform areas that are not otherwise irrigable in practice. Although adoption of drip irrigation is growing rapidly in India, adoption is low in neighboring Pakistan. The authors of this paper undertook a discrete choice experiment framed around the hypothetical subsidized purchase of a drip irrigation system in four districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The nonrepresentative sample of adopters and nonadopters in the study districts identified a clear increase in the valuation of drip systems in the first several years following adoption. This finding suggests that farmers may be unaware of the opportunities for the use of drip irrigation on their farms or the benefits that may accrue from such use. In addition, farmers’ aspirations for cropping systems under drip were better predictors of the valuation of drip systems than were current cropping patterns, implying that a different agricultural landscape might reasonably emerge under improved adoption of drip. Aspirations differed across the different agroecological zones and water regimes captured by this study. Aspirations to substitute wheat crops for fruits and vegetables were associated with a higher appreciation of the subsidy level, whereas aspirations to expand wheat were associated with a higher appreciation of the area covered by the drip initiative; together, these findings imply a degree of control over the extent of wheat production in the landscape via careful design of the drip subsidy program. Although the penetration of drip irrigation is not yet sufficient to draw inferences from a representative sample, these results suggest a number of ways in which drip irrigation may transform Pakistan’s agricultural landscape
Aspirations and the role of social protection: evidence from a natural disaster in rural Pakistan
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. 2017
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. 2017
DOI : 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.03.039
Abstract | View
Citizens’ aspirations are increasingly recognized as an important dimension of their well-being. Those with high aspirations set ambitious goals for themselves, and those with low aspirations may fall prey to a poverty trap. Do natural disasters negatively impact aspirations? If so, can governments blunt these effects? We consider Pakistan’s devastating 2010 floods—and the government’s uneven relief efforts—to analyze these questions. We first show that the extreme rainfall generating this disaster significantly reduced aspirations, even when current levels of household expenditure, wealth, and education are taken into account. Individuals experiencing 2010 monsoon season rainfall that was one standard deviation higher than average had aspiration levels 1.5 years later that were 0.15 standard deviations lower than those of similar individuals experiencing just average levels of rainfall. This is the same negative shock to aspirations that one would experience as a result of a 50% reduction in household expenditures. Moreover, the negative effect of natural disasters on aspirations is especially strong among the poor, and among those who are most vulnerable to weather shocks. However, exploiting exogenous variation in flood relief access, we show that government social protection can attenuate these negative impacts. Individuals in villages that received Citizens Damage Compensation (Watan Card) Program flood relief—providing cash equivalent to 9.4% of annual household expenditures in each of the three years following the disaster—saw significantly lower declines in aspirations than did those in similarly affected villages without this relief. This offers a new understanding of social protection; it not only restores livelihoods and replaces damaged assets, but also has an enduring effect by easing mental burdens, and thus raising aspirations for the future. The negative effects of natural disasters and the efficacy of government relief programs may thus be underestimated if aspirations are ignored.
A user’s guide to data from Round 3 of the Pakistan Rural Household Panel Survey (PRHPS) 2014
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Innovative Development Strategies (IDS). Washington, DC 2016
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Innovative Development Strategies (IDS). Washington, DC 2016
Abstract | View
The Pakistan Rural Household Panel Survey (PRHPS) 2014 is the third round of the PRHPS; Rounds 1 and 2 were conducted in 2012 and 2013 respectively. This survey aims to provide a quantitative basis to identify and address urgent economic development and policy priorities in Pakistan. Many modules and questions in Round 3 are consistent with the prior rounds. PRHPS Round 3 was able to collect complete data from 1,876 households in the rural areas of three provinces namely: (i) Punjab; (ii) Sindh; and (iii) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). The sample is representative of the rural areas of Punjab and Sindh provinces and of the rural areas in 11 of the districts in KPK province. The survey collected information on many topics including sources of income, nature of employment, consumption patterns, time use, assets and savings, loans and credit, education, migration, women’s decision making, economic shocks, transfers in and out, health and nutrition, and participation in social safety nets. Four
A4NH flagship 2: Biofortification
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) . Washington, D.C. 2017
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) . Washington, D.C. 2017
Abstract | View
Micronutrient deficiency affects approximately 2 billion people globally and is caused by poor-quality diets resulting in low intakes of key micronutrients. Children who are micronutrient deficient in early childhood are at a much higher risk of infections, and less able to recover than healthy children. Biofortification uses plant breeding to improve the nutritional content of food crops, especially staple foods that poor people already consume, in order to reduce inadequate intakes and micronutrient deficiency in the most at-risk populations.
The impacts of cash transfers on women’s empowerment: Learning from Pakistan’s BISP program
Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan. Washington, D.C. 2017
Ambler, Kate; de Brauw, Alan. Washington, D.C. 2017
Agriculture and the rural economy in Pakistan: Issues, outlooks, and policy priorities: Synopsis
Spielman, David J.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Dorosh, Paul A.; Ahmad, Nuzhat. Washington, D.C. 2017
Spielman, David J.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Dorosh, Paul A.; Ahmad, Nuzhat. Washington, D.C. 2017
DOI : 10.2499/9780896292390
Abstract | View
While policy makers, media, and the international community focus their attention on Pakistan’s ongoing security challenges, the potential of the rural economy, and particularly the agricultural sector, to improve Pakistanis’ well-being is being neglected. Agriculture is crucial to Pakistan’s economy. Almost half of the country’s labor force works in the agricultural sector, which produces food and inputs for industry (such as cotton for textiles) and accounts for over a third of Pakistan’s total export earnings. Equally important are nonfarm economic activities in rural areas, such as retail sales in small village shops, transportation services, and education and health services in local schools and clinics. Rural nonfarm activities account for between 40 and 57 percent of total rural household income. Their large share of income means that the agricultural sector and the rural nonfarm economy have vital roles to play in promoting growth and reducing poverty in Pakistan.
Poverty trends in Pakistan
Whitney, Edward; Nazli, Hina; Mahrt, Kristi. Oxford, UK 2016
Whitney, Edward; Nazli, Hina; Mahrt, Kristi. Oxford, UK 2016
Factors influencing choice of energy sources in rural Pakistan
Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Saleem, Muhammad Saqib Shahzad; Rashid, Shehryar. 2016
Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Saleem, Muhammad Saqib Shahzad; Rashid, Shehryar. 2016
Fiscal space for investment in agriculture
Davies, Stephen; Saeed, Wajiha; Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Tanvir, Tehmina; Irshad, Aamer. 2016
Davies, Stephen; Saeed, Wajiha; Moeen, Muhammad Saad; Tanvir, Tehmina; Irshad, Aamer. 2016
Inclusive agricultural growth in Pakistan
Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Jilani, Amir Hamza. 2016
Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Sheikh, Asjad Tariq; Jilani, Amir Hamza. 2016
Combating nutrient deficiency in Pakistan
Ejaz, Amna; Ali, Haseeb; Ali, Mubarik; Farooq, Umar. 2016
Ejaz, Amna; Ali, Haseeb; Ali, Mubarik; Farooq, Umar. 2016
Food, agriculture, and rural development in Pakistan
Spielman, David J.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Dorosh, Paul A.; Ahmad, Nuzhat. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Spielman, David J.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Dorosh, Paul A.; Ahmad, Nuzhat. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Agriculture, land, and productivity in Pakistan
Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Ali, Shujat; Riaz, Khalid; Whitney, Edward; Malek, Mehrab; Waqas, Ahmad. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Ali, Shujat; Riaz, Khalid; Whitney, Edward; Malek, Mehrab; Waqas, Ahmad. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Consumption, nutrition, and poverty
Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Nazli, Hina; Whitney, Edward; Shahzad, Asma; Mehmood, Amina. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Nazli, Hina; Whitney, Edward; Shahzad, Asma; Mehmood, Amina. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Irrigation and water management in the Indus basin: Infrastructure and management strategies to improve agricultural productivity
Davies, Stephen; Gueneau, Arthur; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Ringler, Claudia; Robinson, Sherman. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Davies, Stephen; Gueneau, Arthur; Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Ringler, Claudia; Robinson, Sherman. Philadelphia, PA 2016
The architecture of the Pakistani seed system: A case of market-regulation dissonance
Rana, Muhammad Ahsan; Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Rana, Muhammad Ahsan; Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Pakistan's fertilizer sector: Structure, policies, performance, and impacts
Ali, Mubarik; Ahmed, Faryal; Channa, Hira; Davies, Stephen. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Ali, Mubarik; Ahmed, Faryal; Channa, Hira; Davies, Stephen. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Agricultural prices and trade policies
Dorosh, Paul A.; Alonso, Elena Briones; Malik, Shuaib; Salam, Abdul. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Dorosh, Paul A.; Alonso, Elena Briones; Malik, Shuaib; Salam, Abdul. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Public service delivery for rural development
Afzal, Madiha; Gajate-Garrido, Gissele; Holtemeyer, Brian; Kosec, Katrina. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Afzal, Madiha; Gajate-Garrido, Gissele; Holtemeyer, Brian; Kosec, Katrina. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Devolution in Pakistan: Implications for agriculture and rural development
Resnick, Danielle; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Resnick, Danielle; Rana, Abdul Wajid. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Gender equality and women's empowerment in rural Pakistan
Ahmad, Nuzhat; Hameed, Madeeha; Khan, Huma; Rafi, Sara. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Ahmad, Nuzhat; Hameed, Madeeha; Khan, Huma; Rafi, Sara. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Understanding the aspirations of the rural poor
Kosec, Katrina; Khan, Huma. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Kosec, Katrina; Khan, Huma. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Agricultural growth, poverty, and the rural nonfarm economy: A spatial economy-wide analysis
Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Summing up: Policy and investment priorities for agriculture and the rural economy in Pakistan
Spielman, David J.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Spielman, David J.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Agriculture and the rural economy in Pakistan: Issues, outlooks, and policy priorities
Spielman, David J., ed.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir, ed.; Dorosh, Paul A., ed.; Ahmad, Nuzhat, ed.. Philadelphia, PA 2016
Spielman, David J., ed.; Malik, Sohail Jehangir, ed.; Dorosh, Paul A., ed.; Ahmad, Nuzhat, ed.. Philadelphia, PA 2016
DOI : 10.9783/9780812294217
Increased water charges improve efficiency and equity in an irrigation system
Bell, Andrew R.; Ward, Patrick S.; Shah, M. Azeem Ali. 2016
Bell, Andrew R.; Ward, Patrick S.; Shah, M. Azeem Ali. 2016
DOI : 10.5751/ES-08642-210323
Modeling the agricultural water–energy–food nexus in the Indus River Basin, Pakistan
Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Ringler, Claudia; Brown, Casey; Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam. 2016
Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Ringler, Claudia; Brown, Casey; Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam. 2016
DOI : 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000710
A question of integrity: Variants of Bt cotton, pesticides, and productivity in Pakistan
Ma, Xingliang; Smale, Melinda; Spielman, David J.; Zambrano, Patricia; Nazli, Hina; Zaidi, Fatima. 2016
Ma, Xingliang; Smale, Melinda; Spielman, David J.; Zambrano, Patricia; Nazli, Hina; Zaidi, Fatima. 2016
A4NH 2015 annual report
CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH). Washington, D.C. 2016
CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH). Washington, D.C. 2016
Abstract | View
In its fourth year, the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) has many accomplishments to be proud of and much to look forward to. By the end of 2015, biofortified staple foods had reached approximately 15 million people. The aflasafe™ approach for controlling aflatoxins was registered in Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal, with country investments secured to scale it up. The successful Together for Nutrition initiative expanded from India to Ethiopia, bringing together a range of nutrition stakeholders. The Global Nutrition Report (GNR) 2015 was released alongside the launch of the Sustainable Development Goals, building off the success of GNR 2014 to guide nutrition action. Our research portfolio is expanding to include food systems and we are exploring new collaborations with public health partners. Our country and regional engagement contributes to agricultural programs and policies that can better achieve nutrition and health impacts. We also hear loud and clear from the development community that achieving these outcomes is a priority, and that doing so at scale requires making agriculture and other sectors more nutrition and health-sensitive.
A question of integrity: Variants of Bt Cotton, pesticides and productivity in Pakistan
Ma, Xingliang; Smale, Melinda; Spielman, David J.; Zambrano, Patricia; Nazli, Hina; Zaidi, Fatima. 2017
Ma, Xingliang; Smale, Melinda; Spielman, David J.; Zambrano, Patricia; Nazli, Hina; Zaidi, Fatima. 2017
DOI : 10.1111/1477-9552.12174
Economic development, mobility and political discontent
Healy, Andrew; Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. Nashville, TN 2016
Healy, Andrew; Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. Nashville, TN 2016
Where to invest in the Indus Basin Irrigation System in Pakistan to improve land and water productivity?
Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Channa, Hira; Ringler, Claudia. 2016
Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Channa, Hira; Ringler, Claudia. 2016
Abstract | View
Irrigated agriculture accounts for about 80% of total agricultural production in Pakistan, an arid country home to the sixth largest population globally. Almost all irrigated production takes place in the Indus Basin Irrigation System, the world's largest contiguous irrigated area. The extensive system of canals transfers water from the river system to distributaries and from there to watercourses, farms, and eventually to individual farm plots. Given growing water shortages and the resulting increased variability in water flows in the system, it will be important to improve system efficiency to ensure continued increase in agricultural production. A key question remains, however, where to intervene in the system. This paper uses multilevel modeling to explore the relative importance of plots, farms, watercourses, and distributaries on the levels and variance of wheat yield, and identify entry points to improve agricultural water management in a way that can guide prioritization of investments across the different levels of the irrigation network. Our findings suggest that out of the total variation in wheat yield that is not explained by plot specific characteristics, 28% is explained by distributary level effects, 3% by watercourse level effects, and 7% by farm (household) characteristics. These findings suggest that investments that improve irrigation water delivery at the distributary level provide the highest impact per unit of dollar invested in terms of reducing yield gaps among farmers.
Channelizing Afghanistan to Pakistan informal trade into formal channels
Khan Miankhel, Adil . Washington, D.C. 2016
Khan Miankhel, Adil . Washington, D.C. 2016
Abstract | View
This paper focuses on assessing the possibility of bringing informal trade from Afghanistan to Pakistan into the legal channels by reducing tariff and tax differentials between Pakistan and Afghanistan. A basic model and illustrative example are presented that encompass the monetary incentives of smugglers and shows possible tariff/tax reductions that bring profits from informal trade below the breakeven point. The effects of price discounting of informally traded products in the Pakistan market and possible under-invoicing by traders are also taken into consideration.
Banking on the poor
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2002
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2002
Abstract | View
This policy brief is designed to help policymakers and practitioners understand the financial services needed by the poor. It is framed within lessons learned from a five-year IFPRI research program that examined, among other issues, the roles government should play in providing financial services to meet the needs of the poor. Insights presented here are based on a series of detailed household surveys conducted in nine countries of Africa and Asia: Bangladesh, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Ghana, Madagascar, Malawi, Nepal, and Pakistan.... [The brief asks us to consider these questions:] What kinds of financial services do the poor value? What economic activities are the poor engaged in, and what implications does this have for the type of services to be provided? What are existing sources of financial services, and how do the poor use them? What combination of financial instruments—credit, savings, insurance — are best developed, given specific demand from different types of clients? Do delivery systems (credit union, village banking, group-based lending) take into account the prevailing socioeconomic environments or local organizational systems? What unconventional methods do the poor use to secure loans? Can these collateral substitutes be used within a more formalized banking system? In the lending or granting of public resources, are incentives in place to encourage competitive, sustainable, efficient, and entrepreneurial microfinance institutions? Are regulations in place that govern mutually supportive transactions between the clients (borrowers) and institutions (lenders), such as deposit insurance and contract enforcement? Are prudential regulations, such as accounting practices and reporting requirements, balanced so that they ensure sustainability, good management, and accountability of microfinance institutions without stifling innovation? Would the introduction or expansion of microfinance services in a region be one of the most socially cost-effective ways to alleviate poverty there, given the state of infrastructure and markets, the availability of services, and the existence of other antipoverty and development programs in the region?" -- Text
Potential of market discipline in Pakistan: The bank depositors’ perspective
Mirza, Nawazish; Naqvi, Bushra; Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas; Rahat, Birjees. Washington, D.C. 2016
Mirza, Nawazish; Naqvi, Bushra; Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas; Rahat, Birjees. Washington, D.C. 2016
Abstract | View
The aim of this research is to ascertain whether Pakistan’s financial system is conducive to market disci-pline. We measure the potential of depositors to induce market discipline in the commercial banking sector. A comprehensive survey of over six thousand respondents was used to gauge their propensity to discipline bank management in response to deteriorating financial conditions. Our results portray that depositors are likely to withdraw funds in response to a reduction in profitability, an increase in non-performing loans, and a reduction in total assets. We identify that banks with better service quality are less sensitive to deposit withdrawals in the event of a reduction in their financial performance. Among other findings, the presence of contractual guarantees by the government desensitizes depositors to market information, making them less likely to be involved in imposing market discipline.
Pakistan’s changing demography: Urbanization and peri-urban transformation over time
Kedir, Mekamu; Schmidt, Emily; Wagas, Ahmad. Washington, D.C. 2016
Kedir, Mekamu; Schmidt, Emily; Wagas, Ahmad. Washington, D.C. 2016
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This study uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to evaluate improvements in transportation infrastructure and related urbanization over the last 40 years in Pakistan. In addition, we suggest a definition to measure peri-urban population using the agglomeration index methodology developed by Uchida and Nelson (2008). In doing so, we incorporate a series of GIS data including: travel time rasters, population density rasters and other nationally collected biophysical and infrastructure variables (i.e. roads, railroads, waterbodies) in order to construct measurements of urban agglomeration within Pakistan. We use road and population data from corresponding census years (and government growth rates for more recent population estimates) to model reductions in remoteness to urban areas over time.
A user’s guide to data from Round 2 of the Pakistan Rural Household Panel Survey (PRHPS) 2013
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Innovative Development Strategies (IDS) . Washington, DC 2016
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Innovative Development Strategies (IDS) . Washington, DC 2016
Abstract | View
Responding to a request from the Government of Pakistan, the Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP) was launched in July 2011. This program is a flexible country-led and country-wide policy analysis and capacity strengthening program, which provides analytical support on a range of economic policies affecting agricultural growth and food security in the country. The core purpose of the program is to contribute to pro-poor economic growth and enhanced food security through strengthened national capacity for designing and implementing evidence-based policy reforms. PSSP’s four primary research priorities are as follows: a. Agricultural production and productivity; b. Water management and irrigation; c. Macroeconomics, markets and trade; d. Poverty reduction (Income dynamics) and job creation (social safety nets). The Rural Household Panel Survey (RHPS) aims to provide quantitative bases to identify and address these four primary research priorities. The RHPS covers 2090 households in 76 primary sampling units in the rural areas of three provinces: (i) Punjab; (ii) Sindh; and (iii) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). The sample is nationally representative of the rural areas of the three provinces. This survey collected information on a large number of topics such as: sources of income, nature of employment, consumption patterns, time use, assets and savings, loans and credit, education, migration, economic shocks, and participation in social safety nets. Four survey instruments were used to collect this information in Round 2. These included two household level questionnaires (to collect household information on various household and individual level aspect by males and females separately), a community questionnaire, and a price questionnaire.
Varietal integrity, damage abatement, and productivity: Evidence from the cultivation of Bt cotton in Pakistan
Ma, Xingliang; Smale, Melinda; Spielman, David J.; Zambrano, Patricia; Nazli, Hina; Zaidi, Fatima. Washington, D.C. 2016
Ma, Xingliang; Smale, Melinda; Spielman, David J.; Zambrano, Patricia; Nazli, Hina; Zaidi, Fatima. Washington, D.C. 2016
Abstract | View
Bt cotton remains one of the most widely grown biotech crops among smallholder farmers. Numerous studies, including those previously conducted in Pakistan, attest to its yield and cost advantages. However, the effectiveness of Bt toxin, which depends on many technical constraints, is heterogeneous. Furthermore, in Pakistan, the diffusion of Bt cotton varieties occurred despite a weak regulatory system and without seed quality control; evidence demonstrates that varieties sold as Bt may not contain the genes or express them effectively. We use data collected from a sample that is statistically representative of the nation’s cotton growers to test the effects of Bt cotton use on productivity in a damage control framework. Unlike previous studies, we employ five measures of Bt identity: name, official approval status, farmer belief, laboratory tests of Bt presence in plant tissue, and biophysical assays measuring Bt effectiveness. Only farmers’ belief that a variety is Bt affects cotton productivity. Although all measures reduce damage from pests, the biophysical indicators have the largest effect, and official approval has the weakest. For applied economists, findings highlight the importance of getting the data right concerning Bt. For policy makers, they suggest the need, on ethical if not productivity grounds, to monitor variety integrity closer to point of sale.
Pakistan’s fertilizer sector: Structure, policies, performance, and impacts
Ali, Mubarik; Ahmed, Faryal; Channa, Hira; Davies, Stephen. Washington, D.C. 2016
Ali, Mubarik; Ahmed, Faryal; Channa, Hira; Davies, Stephen. Washington, D.C. 2016
Abstract | View
The fertilizer industry in Pakistan, with US$3.74 billion per year in sales, now stands at a crossroads where, after an initial substantial contribution in boosting crop productivity, its future potential is being challenged. Fertilizer-responsive crop varieties, supplementary irrigation water, and a favorable policy environment in Pakistan have induced fast growth in fertilizer demand. On the supply side, the availability of gas at low prices along with a favorable investment environment resulted in the buildup of excessive manufacturing capacity. But recently, a shortage of gas and monopolistic behavior has led to underutilization and greater imports. Restrictive laws put fertilizer processing and marketing in a few hands, which has also affected its efficiency. Moreover, the yield response of fertilizer has tapered off and per hectare use is fast reaching its optimal level. The existing policy environment leads to higher costs, inefficient use, and a heavy burden on the government as it charges one-fourth of the market price for feedstock gas used in fertilizer manufacturing. In addition, the government imports urea and absorbs the difference in international and domestic prices.
Measuring women’s disempowerment in agriculture in Pakistan
Ahmad, Nuzhat; Khan, Huma. Washington, D.C. 2016
Ahmad, Nuzhat; Khan, Huma. Washington, D.C. 2016
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Pakistan performs poorly withrespect to gender equality, women’s empowerment, and other gender-related indicators. Few studies in Pakistan measure the multiple dimensions of empowerment along which women are marginalized or disenfranchised, particularly in the country’s rural areas. Even fewer studies address the gender gaps in empowerment levels of men and women. This paper calculates a Women’s Disempowerment Index to examine women’s control over production, resources, income, household decisions, and time burden. The index is based on a slightly modified methodology than that used for WEAI calculation by Alkire et al. (2012). The analysis is based on a sample of 2,090 households in the rural areas of Pakistan. Data used for the study werecollected in three rounds of the Pakistan Rural Household Panel Survey from 2012–2014 by International Food Policy Research Institute/ Innovative Development Strategies for its Pakistan Strategy Support Program. The results show low empowerment levels of only 17 percent for women in the rural areas of Pakistan. The results also show very low empowerment of women in all indicators and domains except the time burden/workload indicator. We then analyze women’s disempowerment by subsamples based on individual and household characteristics. We also calculate disempowerment levels among men and compare it to disempowerment levels among women. Comparison within the household reveals large disparities in empowerment levels among men and women. In a comparative analysis, men are found to be more empowered in domains of production, income,and autonomy. Both men and women were found to be most disempowered in access to and control over resources. The paper provides a baseline for tracking women’s empowerment over time and identifies areas that need to be strengthened through policy interventions
Assessment of water allocations using remote sensing and GIS modeling for Indus Basin, Pakistan
Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Bakhsh, Allah; Mahmood, Talha; Liaqat, Muhammad Usman. Washington, D.C. 2016
Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Bakhsh, Allah; Mahmood, Talha; Liaqat, Muhammad Usman. Washington, D.C. 2016
Abstract | View
Water allocations for canal commands are not uniform throughout Pakistan. They vary from 2.5 to 15 cusec (ft3/sec) per 1,000 acres (i.e. 0.18 – 1.1 litre/sec/hectare) for different canal commands. This variability in water allowance (WA) has resulted in low water productivity (kg of yield per m3 of water use), an indicator used to assess efficient water use, especially in command areas having higher water allocations. In this study, satellite imagery was used to estimate crop water use and corresponding water productivity for each canal command area of the Indus Basin Irriga-tion System. Three years were selected for the study and two representative canal commands (Lower Chenab and Muzaffargarh Canal) were selected for detailed analysis and ground truthing. Spatially distributed maps of land use, crop water use, groundwater use and quality, soil and water salinity, and crop yields at a pixel resolution of 250 m (6.25 ha) were prepared and then verified by field surveys. GIS maps of canal water availability/supply were also prepared to account for the volume of water supplied through irrigation. This spatial database was used to evaluate and create maps of water productivity in the different canal commands.
DNA barcoding and biochemical profiling of medicinal plants of northern and desert areas of Pakistan to improve rural living standard
Jamil, Amer; Ashfaq, Muhammad. Washington, D.C. 2016
Jamil, Amer; Ashfaq, Muhammad. Washington, D.C. 2016
Abstract | View
Pakistan is a country with a varied climate and hosts a large number of medicinal plant species. Most of the medicinal plants are collected in the wild by local communities. These plants are an important source of livelihood for rural economies. However, no systematic documentation has been undertaken to assist in proving ownership of the plant resources. This project focused on the conservation of natural plant resources by using modern molecular techniques and creating awareness for determining the active ingredients of the plants through biochemical profiling. Further objectives of the study were to identify marketing channels for medicinal plants, costs and margins of stakeholders involved in the marketing of medicinal plants, and factors responsible for the poor trade and decreasing population of these plants in the two study areas of Swat Valley and Cholistan Desert.
Determinants of entrepreneurial behaviour in FATA Pakistan
Muhammad, Ali; Junaid, Muhammad. Washington, D.C. 2016
Muhammad, Ali; Junaid, Muhammad. Washington, D.C. 2016
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This research investigates determinants of entrepreneurial behaviour in one of the most impoverished areas of Paki-stan, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Unlike the developed world, the scenario in emerging econo-mies is quite different, where entrepreneurs have to rely primarily on socio-cultural factors that facilitate them to pursue entrepreneurship as a means to earn livelihoods. However, little predictive empirical work has investigated enterprising behaviour in the tribal areas of Pakistan. This study examines the relative strength of selected entrepre-neurial determinant in the Pashtun tribal culture. Persistent wars, economic downturn, and strong cultural adherence have turned the Pashtun tribesmen into necessity entrepreneurs. Based on primary data from 462 respondents, entre-preneurial behaviour measured by self-reported views toward risk-taking and innovativeness are related to economic, institutional, and cultural constructs using logistic regression models. Different sets of predictors emerged for risk-taking and innovativeness. We find some, but limited support for hypothesized determinants of entrepreneurial be-havior. This study informs academics as to how entrepreneurial behaviour of Pashtuns can be enhanced, setting up hypotheses and results for future research exploration, and can guide policy to stimulate underlying factors that will promote entrepreneurship in FATA.
The Pakistan remittance initiative and remittance flows to Pakistan
Qureshi, Javaeria A.. Washington, D.C 2016
Qureshi, Javaeria A.. Washington, D.C 2016
Abstract | View
This study investigates the impact of the Pakistan Remittance Initiative (PRI) on remittance flows to Pakistan. In 2009, the Government of Pakistan launched the PRI aimed at facilitating the flow of remittances sent home by non-resident Pakistanis. The PRI is comprised of multiple incentive schemes that are aimed at making remittance transfer faster, cheaper, and more convenient, and at increasing the attractiveness of formal channels of transfer relative to informal channels. I find that the PRI is associated with a significant increase in the formal remittances sent to Pakistan as well as a strong shift in the channels used for remit-tance transfer. Estimates suggest that while the PRI led to a significant reallocation of remittances away from the informal channel to the formal channel, it is not clear that it has increased the total amount of remittances received.
Drivers of groundwater use and technical efficiency of groundwater, canal water, and conjunctive use in Pakistan’s Indus Basin Irrigation System
Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Siddiqi, Afreen; Ringler, Claudia. 2016
Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Siddiqi, Afreen; Ringler, Claudia. 2016
DOI : 10.1080/07900627.2015.1133402
Temporary and permanent migrant selection
Chen, Joyce J.; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. Bonn, Germany 2016
Chen, Joyce J.; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. Bonn, Germany 2016
Dynamics of variety change on wheat farms in Pakistan
Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. 2016
Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. 2016
DOI : 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.12.009
Poverty trends in Pakistan
Nazli, Hina; Whitney, Edward; Mahrt, Kristi. Helsinki, Finland 2015
Nazli, Hina; Whitney, Edward; Mahrt, Kristi. Helsinki, Finland 2015
Experimental evidence on public good behavior across Pakistan’s fractured educational system
Aftab, Zehra. Washington, D.C. 2016
Aftab, Zehra. Washington, D.C. 2016
Abstract | View
This paper adopts identity as a core concept. Following Akerlof and Kranton (2010), it demonstrates how our social identities, and not just economic incentives, influence our decisions. I acknowledge that identity is a multi-layered concept incorporating not only a social dimension (class and gender), but also has ideological (religious orientation) and linguistic dimensions. The paper argues that, even within the same respective identity group, context is important, in the sense that decisions vary based on who one interacts with, their identity, and their respective actions.
Optimal groundwater management in Pakistan’s Indus Water Basin
Nasim Sanval; Helfand, Steven. Washington, D.C. 2016
Nasim Sanval; Helfand, Steven. Washington, D.C. 2016
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In this report we examine the management of groundwater in Pakistan’s Indus Basin through a model of groundwater extraction with hydrologic, economic, and tenure constraints. We develop a groundwater extraction model for the Indus Basin and simulate the effect of common property management (the status quo in the Indus Basin) and optimal management on groundwater extractions, water table height, groundwater quality, and annual net benefits from irrigated agriculture. The analysis provides a framework to develop and discuss policies that could lead to the optimal management of groundwater.
Temporary and permanent migrant selection
Chen, Joyce J.; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. Washington, D.C. 2015
Chen, Joyce J.; Kosec, Katrina; Mueller, Valerie. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
The migrant selection literature concentrates primarily on spatial patterns. We integrate two workhorses of the labor literature, the Roy and search models, to illustrate the implications of migration duration for patterns of selection. Theory and empirics show that temporary migrants are intermediately selected on education, with weaker selection on cognitive ability. Longer migration episodes lead to stronger positive selection on both education and ability because the associated jobs involve finer employee-employer matching and offer greater returns to experience. Networks are more valuable for permanent migration, where search costs are higher. Labor market frictions explain observed complex network-skill interactions. When considering migrant selection, the economics literature has largely focused on patterns by area of origin. However, the duration of migration episodes–temporary versus permanent–is another important determinant of selection. We integrate two workhorses of the labor literature, the Roy model and a search model, to illustrate the implications of migration duration for patterns of self-selection. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence showing that, because short-term migration episodes have less scope for skill-based matching and greater need for screening, temporary migrants are more likely to display intermediate selection on education, with weaker selection on underlying cognitive ability. Longer term migration episodes, in contrast, allow for finer employee-employer matching and greater returns to experience, leading to stronger positive selection on both education and cognitive ability among permanent migrants. Networks are also found to be more valuable for permanent migration, where search costs tend to be higher. However, we also provide evidence of complex network-skill interactions, driven primarily by labor market frictions.
The role of regulations in the fertilizer sector of Pakistan
Ali, Mubarik; Ahmed, Faryal; Channa, Hira; Davies, Stephen. 2015
Ali, Mubarik; Ahmed, Faryal; Channa, Hira; Davies, Stephen. 2015
Pakistan: Agricultural R&D indicators factsheet
Stads, Gert-Jan; Niazi, Muhammad Azam; Gao, Lang; Badar, Nouman. Washington, D.C. 2015
Stads, Gert-Jan; Niazi, Muhammad Azam; Gao, Lang; Badar, Nouman. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
This country factsheet presents key agricultural R&D indicators in a highly accessible visual display. The publication also feature a more in-depth analysis of some of the key challenges that the country’s agricultural R&D system is facing, and the policy options to address these challenges.
Highlights of recent IFPRI food policy research in Pakistan
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2015
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2015
2015 Nutrition country profile: Pakistan
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2015
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
The 193 individual country profiles capture the status and progress of all UN Member States, and the 80+ indicators include a wealth of information on child, adolescent and adult anthropometry and nutritional status, in addition to intervention coverage, food supply, economics, and demography. This tool is particularly useful for nutrition champions at the country-level, as it presents a wide range of evidence needed to assess country progress in improving nutrition and nutrition-related outcomes.
Pakistan: Country brief
HarvestPlus. Washington, D.C. 2015
HarvestPlus. Washington, D.C. 2015
The impact of water users’ associations on the productivity of irrigated agriculture in Pakistani Punjab
Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Channa, Hira; Ringler, Claudia. 2015
Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Channa, Hira; Ringler, Claudia. 2015
DOI : 10.1080/02508060.2015.1094617
Liberalizing foodgrains markets
Ganesh-Kumar, Anand; Roy, Devesh; Gulati, Ashok. Washington, D.C. 2010
Ganesh-Kumar, Anand; Roy, Devesh; Gulati, Ashok. Washington, D.C. 2010
Abstract | View
South Asia is home to the largest concentration of poor and undernourished people in the world, so food security—especially in basic staples such as wheat, rice, and corn—continues to be a major concern. With both persistent and re-emerging food price inflation reaching new heights in 2007–08 in global markets, South Asia saw sharp inflation—between 50 and 100 percent—in basic staples in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These drastic price spikes drew comprehensive policy responses from the governments of these countries, addressing both supply and demand for foodgrains. India, the largest economy in the region, reacted by banning exports of common rice, wheat, and corn, as well as suspending these commodities from futures trading, to ensure comfortable supplies in the domestic market at affordable prices. India also launched a National Food Security Mission in 2007 and announced a special agricultural package (Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana) of roughly US$6 billion to rejuvenate its agriculture. Today, South Asian countries want a greater degree of self-sufficiency; reliance on trade to achieve food security is being questioned by critics. Against this backdrop, a recent book published for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) by Oxford University Press, Liberalizing Foodgrains Markets: Experiences, Impact, and Lessons from South Asia, studies the nature of reforms in foodgrains markets (both within-border and at-border reforms), their evolution, and their effects on food economy in general and food security in particular. Through country case studies, editors A. Ganesh-Kumar, Devesh Roy, and Ashok Gulati provide analyses and research-based evidence on decades of food policies in South Asia.
A disaggregated analysis of productivity and growth for Pakistan’s large scale manufacturing sector
Kamal, Fauzia. Washington, D.C. 2015
Kamal, Fauzia. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
This research study is thus designed to compute total factor productivity (TFP) growth for Pakistan’s large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector for each five year period from 1970-71 to 2005-06. It covers LSM activity according to the 2 digit Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC) 2007, which is comparable with the 3 digit PSIC 19701. The ‘Two Deflator Growth Accounting Framework’ (TDM) introduced by Harberger (1991) is employed in the study to compute the sources of LSM growth, along with the ‘Sunrise-Sunset Approach’ for determining the concentration pattern of TFP. Previous studies on productivity in Pakistan used aggregated data to examine the role productivity has played in economic performance. Even though aggregate productivity is a good measure of the overall efficiency and effectiveness of the economy, substantial information about the distribution of productivity across sectors of the economy is lost. An attempt is thus instigated hereto fill the gap of research on the issue of productivity measurement at the disaggregated level.
From parastatals to private trade
Rashid, Shahidur; Gulati, Ashok; Cummings, Jr., Ralph. Washington, D.C. 2008
Rashid, Shahidur; Gulati, Ashok; Cummings, Jr., Ralph. Washington, D.C. 2008
Abstract | View
"Governments in Asia used grain price stabilization as a major policy instrument when they began to promote the Green Revolution in the 1960s. In the process, they created parastatal agencies, which were quasi-governmental in nature, to undertake public marketing activities in basic staples such as rice and wheat. These operations often meant providing a support price to farmers, procuring staples on government account, holding public stocks, and distributing these stocks through public distribution systems or open market operations to hold the price line for consumers. This led to a sizeable degree of government intervention in most of these countries' grain markets, which continues to a large extent today." -- from Text
Pakistan’s cotton and textile economy
Cororaton, Caesar B.; Orden, David. Washington, D.C. 2008
Cororaton, Caesar B.; Orden, David. Washington, D.C. 2008
Abstract | View
Pakistan’s economy relies heavily on its cotton and textile sectors. The cotton-processing and textile industries make up almost half of the country’s manufacturing base, while cotton is Pakistan’s principal industrial crop, supplying critical income to rural households. Altogether, the cotton-textile sectors account for 11 percent of GDP and 60 percent of export receipts. The future of this vital component of the national economy is uncertain, however. These industries face the challenges of unstable world prices and increased competition resulting from global liberalization of the multilateral textile and clothing trade. At the same time, Pakistan’s macroeconomic situation is volatile. Given such challenges and volatility, this study investigates what the future might hold for Pakistan’s cotton and textile industries and its implications for rural and urban poverty reduction in the country. The study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to a 2001–02 social accounting matrix of the Pakistan economy to conduct experimental simulations of possible economic changes. The CGE model results are linked to the nation-wide 2001–02 Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey to examine the implications the simulated developments have for Pakistani poverty. Simulation 1 examines the effects of a doubling of foreign capital inflows, as occurred from 2002 to 2006, before a subsequent financial crisis emerged in 2008. Simulation 2 analyzes the counterfactual effects of an increase in world prices of cotton lint and yarn and/or textiles which would have offset declines experienced in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Pakistan’s strong textile association motivates Simulation 3, which examines the effects of a 5-percent increase in government production subsidies to the industry. Simulation 4 uses a dynamic-recursive version of the model to analyze the short- and long-run effects of a 5-percent increase of total factor productivity (TFP) in cotton, lint and yarn, and textile production.
Aspirations and the role of social protection: Evidence from a natural disaster in rural Pakistan
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. Washington, D.C. 2015
Kosec, Katrina; Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
Citizens’ aspirations for the future are politically important; they are linked to welfare and whether citizens engage in forward-looking political and economic behavior. How do natural disasters affect aspirations, and can governments’ social protection policies successfully mitigate any damaging effects? If natural disasters threaten aspirations, there is strong policy interest in understanding these threats and what government can do to protect aspirations. This article uses Pakistan’s 2010 floods to identify the effects of a natural disaster on citizens’ aspirations. Aspirations were significantly reduced—especially among the poorest and most vulnerable. However, by exploiting exogenous variation in access to targeted government social protection, the authors show that social protection following natural disasters can significantly reduce their negative aspirational effects. This offers a new understanding of government social protection. It not only raises social welfare in the short term by restoring livelihoods and replacing damaged assets; it also has an enduring effect by raising citizens’ aspirations for the future. The authors show not only that the aspirations of citizens matter for citizens’ behaviors, but also that government policies can effectively protect and increase those aspirations. This implies that the value and efficacy of government disaster relief programs are underestimated when aspirations are not taken into account.
Pakistan's ration system: Distribution of costs and benefits
Rogers, Beatrice Lorge. Baltimore, MD 1988
Rogers, Beatrice Lorge. Baltimore, MD 1988
Abstract | View
Pakistan's ration system was established in 1942 to deal with shortages of basic goods caused by wartime disruption in supply. At that time, the ration shops handled wheat and sugar, tea, matches, kerosene, yarn, and cotton cloth. After partition, the system was continued to control hoarding and profiteering of scarce goods. All trade in wheat was rationed and controlled by the government until the 1960s when, as a result of several years of favorable weather, supplies became plentiful. Rationing was abolished, but the shops continued to sell atta (whole wheat flour), which the government obtained through its guaranteed price support scheme, with no limitation on quantity.
Decentralization, local government elections and voter turnout in Pakistan
Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Qureshi, Sarfraz; Birner, Regina; Khan, Bilal Hasan. Washington, D.C. 2008
Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Qureshi, Sarfraz; Birner, Regina; Khan, Bilal Hasan. Washington, D.C. 2008
Abstract | View
"Decentralization has the potential to improve the accountability of government and lead to a more efficient provision of public services. However, accountability requires broad groups of people to participate in local government. Thus, voter turnout at local government elections is an important component of government accountability. This study used survey data on the 2005 local government elections in Pakistan to analyze the impact of electoral mechanisms, the credibility of elections, and voters� socioeconomic characteristics on voter turnout. The rational-choice perspective is applied to develop the specifications of the empirical model. The empirical analysis is based on a series of standard and multilevel random-intercept logistic models. Our important findings reveal that (1) voter turnout is strongly associated with the personal and social gratifications people derive from voting; (2) the preference-matching ability of candidates for local government positions is marginal; and (3) the introduction of direct elections of the district nazims�a key position in local government�might improve electoral participation and thus create a precondition for better local government accountability. The findings also suggest that less educated people, farmers, and rural people are more likely to vote." -- Authors' Abstract
The impact of household health shocks on female time allocation and agricultural labor participation in rural Pakistan
Gajate-Garrido, Gissele. Washington, D.C. 2015
Gajate-Garrido, Gissele. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
There have been few empirical studies in the developing world and the agricultural sector, on the impact of negative health shocks on household well-being. Does the pervasive effect of a negative household-level health shock persist beyond its initial impact and indirectly affect long-run outcomes? What are the channels through which this impact affects household dynamics? To answer these questions this research paper measures the effect of household health shocks on female time allocation and agricultural labor participation in rural Pakistan. To deal with joint determination and measurement error issues, it uses a wide range of covariates found in the 2012 and 2013 Pakistan Rural Household Panel Surveys, including individual, year, and district fixed effects. This paper improves on previous research by providing evidence on the role of changes in female labor supply as an insurance mechanism and shedding light on the nonmonetary consequences of adverse health shocks. Increases in paid workload for women reduce time spent on household chores directly related to child quality. The paper shows how these changes in time allocation affect households’ overall well-being.
Is there an enabling environment for nutrition-sensitive agriculture in South Asia?
van den Bold, Mara; Kohli, Neha; Gillespie, Stuart; Zuberi, Samar; Rajeesh, Sangeetha; Chakraborty, Barnali. 2015
van den Bold, Mara; Kohli, Neha; Gillespie, Stuart; Zuberi, Samar; Rajeesh, Sangeetha; Chakraborty, Barnali. 2015
DOI : 10.1177/0379572115587494
Pakistan’s potential trade and ‘behind the border’ constraints
Miankhel, Adil Khan. Washington, D.C. 2015
Miankhel, Adil Khan. Washington, D.C. 2015
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Institutions are source of comparative advantage or disadvantage in international trade. Socio-economic and political constraints also matter for creating comparative advantage and affect the trade pattern of a country. These diverse ‘beyond the border’ and ‘behind the border’ constraints are often not fully captured in the literature on international trade and institutions. The existence of such institutional, socio-economic, and political constraints to Pakistani exports is empirically investigated in this paper through a cross-sec-tional analysis employing a trade Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Aggregate data for 2006-08 and 2009-11 show lower exports in the latter period. This is attributed to demand-suppressing effects emanating from the 2008 global financial crisis and supply-suppressing effects emanating from energy shortfalls and input constraints, due to floods, in Pakistan. The model estimation then demonstrates that behind the border con-straints in Pakistan are statistically significant in explaining total exports during 2009-11. The estimation is also presented for four single-digit SIC categories of products for this period. Behind the border constraints are evident for SIC 0 (agriculture, forestry and fish products) and SIC 2 (manufactured products) that com-bined account for approximately 80 percent of Pakistan’s exports. The estimation results by country further demonstrate that behind the border constraints affect the pattern of trade through the non-realization of bilateral trade potential. In the post-financial crisis era, Pakistan needs to further develop its institutional capacity to promote competitive exports given the explicit and implicit beyond the border trade barriers it faces and work to remove political obstacles to regional trade.
Religion, land and politics: Shrines and literacy in Punjab, Pakistan
Malik, Adeel; Mirza, Rinchan Ali. Washington, D.C. 2015
Malik, Adeel; Mirza, Rinchan Ali. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
This paper empirically examines the impact of religious shrines on development. Compiling a unique database covering the universe of shrines across Pakistani Punjab, we explore whether the presence of holy Muslim shrines helps to explain regional variation in literacy rates. Our results demonstrate that the presence of shrines adversely affects literacy only in regions where shrine-related families have a direct political influence. Shrines in these regions represent the confluence of three resources—religion, land and politics—that together constitute a powerful structural inequality with potentially adverse consequences for development. We also probe the determinants of political selection, and find that shrines considered important in the British colonial assessment were more likely to select into politics in post-partition Punjab.
Leveraging agriculture for nutrition in South Asia and East Africa
Gillespie, Stuart; van den Bold, Mara; Hodge, Judith; Herforth, Anna. 2015
Gillespie, Stuart; van den Bold, Mara; Hodge, Judith; Herforth, Anna. 2015
DOI : 10.1007/s12571-015-0449-6
Technological opportunity, regulatory uncertainty, and Bt cotton in Pakistan
Spielman, David J.; Nazli, Hina; Ma, Xingliang; Zambrano, Patricia; Zaidi, Fatima. 2015
Spielman, David J.; Nazli, Hina; Ma, Xingliang; Zambrano, Patricia; Zaidi, Fatima. 2015
Does money talk?: Designing safety net programs that work
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2015
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
In the past couple of decades, developing countries have experimented with new ways of designing safety nets to protect their most vulnerable people. They have tried giving cash, providing food, handing over vouchers allowing recipients to buy food, and attaching conditions. But what works best to improve people’s well-being and enhance their food and nutrition security? IFPRI researchers and others have tried to answer this question in different countries and contexts, and the feature article in this issue of Insights looks at their work. The merits of these different approaches to safety nets, it turns out, vary depending on conditions in each community. The rest of this issue of Insights describes other important IFPRI research, touching on many different areas related to food policy. As always, we welcome your thoughts and comments.
The effects of political competition on rural land: Evidence from Pakistan
Kosec, Katrina; Haider, Hamza S.; Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima. Washington, D.C. 2015
Kosec, Katrina; Haider, Hamza S.; Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
Can more vigorous political competition significantly raise rural land values, or contribute to more robust land rental markets? Exploiting exogenous variation in the national popularity of Pakistan’s political parties during the 2008 elections, we show that provincial assembly constituencies with greater competition between political parties had significantly higher land values and more active land rental markets four years later. A standard deviation decrease in a Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) of political concentration is associated with a 36 percent increase in land values, an 8 percentage point increase in the share of landowners renting out land, and an additional 4 percentage points of each landowner’s land being rented out. Land values appear to increase most among the poorest households, suggesting that benefits are greatest for those with the fewest resources to influence policy. Exploring potential causal mechanisms, we show that political competition leads to more stable and businessfriendly governance and institutions, better amenities, and greater provision of publicly provided goods. The effect of political competition on security is ambiguous, suggesting that political competition may decrease security along some dimensions and increase it along others.
A user’s guide to data from Round 1.5 of the Pakistan Rural Household Panel Survey (PRHPS) 2012
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Innovative Development Strategies (IDS). Washington, DC 2014
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Innovative Development Strategies (IDS). Washington, DC 2014
Abstract | View
Pakistan Rural Household Panel Survey 2012 (Round 1.5), a sub-sample consisting of agricultural households captured in Round 1 of the Panel Survey, gathers detailed information on agricultural production and related issues from rural households in Pakistan. Round 1.5 covers 942 agricultural households in 76 primary sampling units in the rural areas of three provinces namely: (i) Punjab; (ii) Sindh; and (iii) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). This survey covers information of households, who either managed or cultivated agricultural plots, during the production year 2011-12, and two crop seasons, namely: (i) Kharif 2011; (ii) Rabi 2011-12. It gathers information on agricultural production (including inputs and outputs or crop and livestock production), agricultural water use, farm and household assets, access to extension services, climate change, credit, employment and income, household consumption and expenditures, and the linkage between pesticides and health. The sample is nationally representative of the rural areas of the three provinces. Data was collected at household, individual and crop level using a household level questionnaire.
Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2011
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2011
Abstract | View
Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP), launched in July 2011, is a flexible country-led and country-wide policy analysis and capacity strengthening program. The program provides analytical support on a range of economic policies affecting agricultural growth and food security in the country.
Economic evaluation of different irrigation systems for wheat production in Rechna Doab, Pakistan
Bakhsh, A.; Ashfaq, M.; Hussain, M.; Rasool, G.; Haider, Z.; Faraz, R.H.. Washington, D.C. 2015
Bakhsh, A.; Ashfaq, M.; Hussain, M.; Rasool, G.; Haider, Z.; Faraz, R.H.. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
Water productivity (WP) is reported lower in Pakistan when compared to the rest of the world. This paper investi-gates the factors responsible for low water productivity and demonstrates various irrigation techniques farmers could use for its improvement. A comprehensive questionnaire was designed, and 230 farmers were interviewed in a cotton-wheat area (Samundri-site I), a mixed crop area (Chiniot-site II), and a rice-wheat area (Hafizabad-site III) in Rechna Doab, Punjab, Pakistan. This survey found that the majority of farmers expressed major concerns about shortages of canal water, energy, and fertilizer. These issues were the main factors affecting their land and water productivity. Field experiments were conducted at the above mentioned sites. The results indicated that drip irrigation was the most efficient irrigation technique, which produced a maximum WP of 2.26 kg m-3 for wheat. Drip irrigation was 98% efficient, and water savings were 40% better when compared with that under conventional irrigation.
Aid effectiveness in poverty alleviation in a post-conflict, post-disaster situation: A case study of district Swat, Pakistan
Ali, Murad. Washington, D.C. 2015
Ali, Murad. Washington, D.C. 2015
Abstract | View
This project aims at exploring the effectiveness of foreign aid within the 2005 Paris Declaration (PD) framework in a post-conflict and post-disaster zone. Focusing on the Swat region in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province in northern Pakistan, which witnessed unprecedented humanitarian crisis in the form of the 2009 militant insurgency and the 2010 floods, the key goal is to examine the effectiveness of donor-funded projects in rehabilitation and reconstruction. Using the 2005 PD doctrines, particularly the principles of ownership, alignment, and harmonisation, this research investigates to what extent aid donors and the Government of Pakistan (GoP) incorporated the PD commitments for making better use of foreign assistance. Thus, the project posits that efficient utilisation of foreign aid leads to effective financial and human resource management and better public service delivery and fits in well within the theme of ‘quality governance’ envisaged by the GoP in its Vision 2025.
What role can information play in improved equity in Pakistan’s irrigation system?
Bell, Andrew; Shah, M. Azeem Ali; Anwar, Arif; Ringler, Claudia. 2015
Bell, Andrew; Shah, M. Azeem Ali; Anwar, Arif; Ringler, Claudia. 2015
DOI : 10.5751/ES-07368-200151
Urban open spaces for adolescent girls: An assessment for Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Qutub, Syed Ayub; Anjum, Nomana. Washington, D.C.; Islamabad, Pakistan 2015
Qutub, Syed Ayub; Anjum, Nomana. Washington, D.C.; Islamabad, Pakistan 2015
Abstract | View
Urban open spaces are valued for their health, social, economic, and environmental benefits. Outdoor physical activity is important for the wellbeing of youth, while playfulness is crucial for creativity and innovation. It is observed that in Pakistan the access of adolescent girls to public open spaces and school playgrounds is restricted, but there has been no prior scientific study. This research has studied the impediments in four planned and un-planned localities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The restrictions on girls are pervasive and become more severe upon their attaining puberty. The values of city and local parks as adolescent-girl-friendly spaces (AGFS) have been assessed. The project has developed AGFS designs for parks and playgrounds, and tested the preferences of the target beneficiaries. Adolescent girls prefer creative play spaces with loose materials and cycling over fixed play fixtures. Institutional and programmatic interventions are proposed on the basis of the findings and consultations.
Reimagining cost recovery in Pakistan's irrigation system through willingness-to-pay estimates for irrigation water from a discrete choice experiment
Bell, Andrew; Shah, M. Azeem Ali; Ward, Patrick S.. 2014
Bell, Andrew; Shah, M. Azeem Ali; Ward, Patrick S.. 2014
DOI : 10.1002/2014WR015704
The Seed industry in Pakistan: Regulation, politics, and entrepreneurship
Rana, Muhammad Ahsan. Washington, DC 2014
Rana, Muhammad Ahsan. Washington, DC 2014
Abstract | View
Seed provision in Pakistan is experiencing tension as private entrepreneurs have been challenging the boundaries of the country’s ar-chaic regulatory structure. All key aspects of the system – licensing of seed producers, variety release procedures, access to public germplasm, quality control, intellectual property rights, and import and export –are governed by laws and regulations framed decades ago for a system then dominated by public sector enterprises. Since the early 1980s, the private seed business has grown but govern-ance has failed to keep pace. The failure of regulatory frameworks to evolve has constrained business activity, at least through official channels. Most actors, including some public sector enterprises, have on occasion found answers in the informal sector, which now mediates a substantial portion of the trade.
The investment climate and enterprise performance in rural Pakistan
Sur, Mona; Zhang, Jian; Chen, Kevin Z.. 2014
Sur, Mona; Zhang, Jian; Chen, Kevin Z.. 2014
DOI : 10.1080/13547860.2014.908537
Productivity and efficiency of farmers growing four popular wheat varieties in Punjab, Pakistan
Battese, George E.; Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. Washington, D.C. 2014
Battese, George E.; Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. Washington, D.C. 2014
Abstract | View
HarvestPlus seeks to select one or more wheat varieties in Pakistan to biofortify with zinc to improve the health of the Pakistani population, especially women and children. The choice of varieties to enrich, and their diffusion patterns, will influence the productivity and efficiency of wheat production. This analysis seeks to (1) compare the relative productivity and efficiency of farmers currently growing the most widely diffused wheat varieties, and (2) update our understanding of factors that influence productivity and efficiency of wheat production. We estimate a stochastic production function model with data from a survey of wheat farmers conducted in Punjab, Pakistan, in 2011. We find no differences in technical inefficiency effects associated with farmers growing the top four varieties, either alone or in combination with other varieties. With respect to human capital, older farmers tend to be more technically inefficient than younger farmers, but education has no statistical significance. Wheat farmers with access to extension advice are more efficient. Smaller-scale farmers and those in the mixed production zone tend to be more technically inefficient. Later adopters were not less efficient than earlier adopters, but time to varietal change is negatively related to the efficiency of wheat production. Farmers growing wheat in the rice-wheat and cotton-wheat zones tend to be less productive (but more efficient) than farmers from the mixed zone. Finally, farmers whose land suffered from severe salinity or severe toxicity are less productive and efficient than other farmers.
2014 Nutrition country profile: Pakistan
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2014
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Washington, D.C. 2014
The official estimates of poverty in Pakistan – What is wrong and why? – Illustrations using the Government of Pakistan’s Household Integrated Economic Survey 2010-11
Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Nazli, Hina; Whitney, Edward. Washington, D.C. 2014
Malik, Sohail Jehangir; Nazli, Hina; Whitney, Edward. Washington, D.C. 2014
Abstract | View
This paper aims to clarify the confusion over estimates of poverty in Pakistan1. The paper highlights the root causes of the confusion in the existing literature, which are based on estimates from the “nationally representative” data collected by the Federal Bureau of Statistics Household Integrated Economic Surveys (HIES). The paper uses the latest available HIES 2010-11 to illustrate and clarify these issues.
Inflation volatility
Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas; Naqvi, Bushra; Bordes, Christian; Mirza, Nawazish. 2014
Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas; Naqvi, Bushra; Bordes, Christian; Mirza, Nawazish. 2014
DOI : 10.1080/1331677X.2014.952090
Technological opportunity, regulatory uncertainty, and the economics of Bt Cotton in Pakistan
Spielman, David J.; Nazli, Hina; Ma, Xingliang; Zambrano, Patricia; Zaidi, Fatima; . Washington, DC 2014
Spielman, David J.; Nazli, Hina; Ma, Xingliang; Zambrano, Patricia; Zaidi, Fatima; . Washington, DC 2014
Abstract | View
This paper aims to shed new light on Bt cotton in Pakistan. First, the paper explores the technological, economic, and institutional aspects to Bt cotton, the history of its introduction in Pakistan, and the controversy that has accompanied its adoption during the past decade. Second, the paper characterizes cotton-producing households across several dimensions using household survey data collected in 2012. Third, the paper examines areas for further policy-relevant research that could improve the capacity of cotton-producing households in Pakistan to realize greater benefits from Bt cotton cultivation.
Intersectoral Water Allocation in the Indus Basin-Under Different Management Policies
Ringler, Claudia; Brown, Casey; Alam, Ghazi; Khan, Ahmed Fawad; Akhtar, Taimoor; Mehmood, Khalid; Yang, Yi-Chen E.. Washington, D.C. 2014
Ringler, Claudia; Brown, Casey; Alam, Ghazi; Khan, Ahmed Fawad; Akhtar, Taimoor; Mehmood, Khalid; Yang, Yi-Chen E.. Washington, D.C. 2014
Abstract | View
This paper uses a hydro-agro-economic model, the Indus Basin Model Revised - Multi Year (IBMR-MY) to evaluate intersectoral water allocation in Pakistan’s Indus Basin under different surface water allocation and groundwater regulation polices. Modeling results indicate that more flexible surface water allocation policies can lead to substantial improve-ments in agricultural profits and also impact hydropower profits, but will have little impact on domestic and industrial water use benefits. Moreover, average flows to the Arabian Sea show no significant changes under this setting, which suggests that the optimal water use through flexible allocation policies will not necessarily jeop-ardize the flow for environment. We find that improving water allocation flexibility in irrigation will thus not only be crucial for improving agricultural outcomes in Pakistan, but also for sustained domestic, industrial and hydro-power generation as well as environmental outcomes. 11/11/2014 WORKING PAPER No. 024 | November 2014
Effects of livestock diseases on dairy production and in-comes in district Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan
Ashfaq, Muhammad; Muhammad, Ghulam; Ul-Haq, Shamsheer; Razzaq, Amar. Washington, D.C. 2014
Ashfaq, Muhammad; Muhammad, Ghulam; Ul-Haq, Shamsheer; Razzaq, Amar. Washington, D.C. 2014
Abstract | View
This study estimates the prevalence of key livestock diseases in district Faisalabad and evaluates the effects they have on livestock productivity and farm incomes. All five tehsils of district Faisalabad are included in the study. From each tehsil three villages were chosen, and from each village 10 livestock farmers were chosen randomly to collect survey information.
Time to variety change on wheat farms of Pakistan's Punjab
Smale, Melinda; Nazli, Hina. Washington, D.C. 2014
Smale, Melinda; Nazli, Hina. Washington, D.C. 2014
Abstract | View
This paper applies duration analysis to identify the factors that shorten the time until a farmer replaces one modern variety with another, and tests hypotheses concerning two salient themes of the Green Revolution: farm size differences and the role of information in farmer-to-farmer seed diffusion. Findings indicate that the time span between changing varieties averages only four years, but is shorter on larger farms. Factors that speed variety change also differ by farm size. Extension and media sources of information are significant among larger farmers relative to social information, which is more important among marginal farmers. Traits related to consumption quality speed variety change among smaller-scale farmers, who both sell and consume their wheat. Higher yields drive variety change among the most subsistence-oriented, marginal farmers.
Lives Saved Tool (LiST) analysis for global nutrition report Independent Expert Group: Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.. Washington, DC 2014
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.. Washington, DC 2014
Poverty, household food security, and nutrition in rural Pakistan
Alderman, Harold; Garcia, Marito. Washington, D.C. 1993
Alderman, Harold; Garcia, Marito. Washington, D.C. 1993
Informal entrepreneurship and institutional theory
Williams, Colin C.; Shahid, Muhammad S.. 2016
Williams, Colin C.; Shahid, Muhammad S.. 2016
DOI : 10.1080/08985626.2014.963889
Economic benefits of high value medicinal plants to Pakistani communities
Sher, Hassan; Aldosari, Ali; Ali, Ahmad; de Boer, Hugo J.. 2014
Sher, Hassan; Aldosari, Ali; Ali, Ahmad; de Boer, Hugo J.. 2014
DOI : 10.1186/1746-4269-10-71
Public investment efficiency and sectoral economic growth in Pakistan
Ahmed, Qazi Masood; Ali, Syed Ammad. Washington, D.C. 2014
Ahmed, Qazi Masood; Ali, Syed Ammad. Washington, D.C. 2014
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This paper compares the effects of aggregate and sectoral public investments on sectoral private investment, output, and employment. We estimate the elasticities of private investment with respect to aggregate and sectoral public investments to find crowding-out or crowding-in phenomena in Pakistan. The study also reveals the changes in labor absorption or replacement due to additional capital and the effects on output. Our data covers eight sectors of the Pakistan economy and uses annual time series data from 1964 to 2011. This study uses vector autoregressive (VAR) techniques, as applied by Pereira (2000, 2001), which allows measuring the dynamic feedback effects among the variables.
The emergence and transformation of Batkhela (Malakand) Bazaar: Ethnic entrepreneurship, social networks, and change in disadvantageous societies
Jan, Muhammad Ayub. Washington, D.C. 2014
Jan, Muhammad Ayub. Washington, D.C. 2014
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This study is an inquiry into the emergence and transformation of Batkhela bazaar in the North West of Pakistan. It investigates the emergence of the bazaar in the face of historical conditions that were characterized by social stratification and political exclusivity. It then probes the transformation of Batkhela bazaar and it’s functioning in the current socio-political conditions. We investigate the above processes with a focus on entrepreneurs of the bazaar. Particularly we examine their efforts in challenging historical conditions during the emergence of the Batkhela bazaar and their continuous endeavor to keep the bazaar functioning. The study also reflects on the social and political embeddedness of the entrepreneurial activities of the bazaar.
Water governance and adaptation to climate change in the Indus River Basin
Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Brown, Casey; Yu, Winston; Wescoat Jr., James; Ringler, Claudia. 2014
Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Brown, Casey; Yu, Winston; Wescoat Jr., James; Ringler, Claudia. 2014
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.055
Implications of productivity growth in Pakistan: an economy wide analysis
Debowicz, Dario; Dorosh, Paul A.; Robinson, Sherman; Haider, Syed Hamza. Washington, D.C. 2014
Debowicz, Dario; Dorosh, Paul A.; Robinson, Sherman; Haider, Syed Hamza. Washington, D.C. 2014
Abstract | View
This policy note describes the economy wide implications of public investments and policies developed under Pakistan’s new Framework for Economic Growth. Policies based on this Framework are expected to lead to substantial gains in productivity in the industrial and service sectors of Pakistan’s economy. We use Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis to compare the implications on welfare and growth under different distributions of productivity growth across sectors.
The role of social networks in an imperfect market for agricultural technology products
Ma, Xingliang; Spielman, David J.; Nazli, Hina; Zambrano, Patricia; Zaidi, Fatima; Kouser, Shahzad. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2014
Ma, Xingliang; Spielman, David J.; Nazli, Hina; Zambrano, Patricia; Zaidi, Fatima; Kouser, Shahzad. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2014
Information efficiency in a lemons market
Ma, Xingliang; Spielman, David J.; Nazli, Hina; Zambrano, Patricia; Zaidi, Fatima; Kouser, Shahzad. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2014
Ma, Xingliang; Spielman, David J.; Nazli, Hina; Zambrano, Patricia; Zaidi, Fatima; Kouser, Shahzad. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2014
The impact of water users' associations on the productivity of irrigated agriculture in Pakistani Punjab
Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Channa, Hira; Ringler, Claudia. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2014
Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Channa, Hira; Ringler, Claudia. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2014
Dynamics of wheat variety adoption on farms in Pakistan
Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2014
Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2014
Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan
Mueller, Valerie; Gray, Clark; Kosec, Katrina. 2014
Mueller, Valerie; Gray, Clark; Kosec, Katrina. 2014
DOI : 10.1038/nclimate2103
Modern input promotion in sub-Saharan Africa
Rashid, Shahidur; Dorosh, Paul A.; Malek, Mehrab; Lemma, Solomon. 2013
Rashid, Shahidur; Dorosh, Paul A.; Malek, Mehrab; Lemma, Solomon. 2013
DOI : 10.1111/agec.12083
Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan
Zhu, Tingju; Ringler, Claudia; Iqbal, M. Mohsin; Sulser, Timothy B.; Goheer, M. Arif. 2013
Zhu, Tingju; Ringler, Claudia; Iqbal, M. Mohsin; Sulser, Timothy B.; Goheer, M. Arif. 2013
DOI : 10.1080/02508060.2013.830682
Droughts in Pakistan
Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia; Zhu, Tingju; Waqas, Ahmad. 2013
Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia; Zhu, Tingju; Waqas, Ahmad. 2013
DOI : 10.1080/02508060.2013.827889
Progress of constitutional change and irrigation management transfer in Pakistan
Bell, Andrew; Aberman, Noora-Lisa; Zaidi, Fatima; Wielgosz, Benjamin. 2013
Bell, Andrew; Aberman, Noora-Lisa; Zaidi, Fatima; Wielgosz, Benjamin. 2013
DOI : 10.1080/02508060.2013.827893
A disaggregated and macro-consistent Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan
Debowicz, Darío; Dorosh, Paul A.; Haider, Hamza S.; Robinson, Sherman. 2013
Debowicz, Darío; Dorosh, Paul A.; Haider, Hamza S.; Robinson, Sherman. 2013
DOI : 10.1186/2193-2409-2-4
Seed information, farm size, and the potential for adoption of zinc-fortified wheat varieties in Pakistan
Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2013
Nazli, Hina; Smale, Melinda. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2013
The Indus Basin of Pakistan
Yu, Winston; Yang, Yi-Chen; Savitsky, Andre; Alford, Donald; Brown, Casey; Wescoat, James; Debowicz, Dario; Robinson, Sherman. Washington, D.C. 2013
Yu, Winston; Yang, Yi-Chen; Savitsky, Andre; Alford, Donald; Brown, Casey; Wescoat, James; Debowicz, Dario; Robinson, Sherman. Washington, D.C. 2013
DOI : 10.1596/978-0-8213-9874-6
Bt cotton adoption and wellbeing of farmers in Pakistan
Nazli, Hina; Orden, David; Sarker, Rakhal; Meilke, Karl. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2012
Nazli, Hina; Orden, David; Sarker, Rakhal; Meilke, Karl. Milwaukee, WI, USA 2012
Human capital accumulation in post-Green Revolution Pakistan: some preliminary results
Sabot, Richard H.. 1991
Sabot, Richard H.. 1991
Patterns and determinants in children in Pakistan: impact of community health.
Garcia, Marito; Alderman, Harold. 1991
Garcia, Marito; Alderman, Harold. 1991
The effects of migration and remittances on inequality in rural Pakistan
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1992
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1992
Remittances, inequality and asset accumulation: the case of rural Pakistan.
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1996
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1996
Non-farm income and inequality in rural Pakistan: a decomposition analysis.
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1993
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1993
Sources of income inequality in rural Pakistan: a decomposition analysis
Adams, Richard H., Jr.; Alderman, Harold. 1992
Adams, Richard H., Jr.; Alderman, Harold. 1992
Agricultural income, cash crops, and inequality in rural Pakistan
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1995
Adams, Richard H., Jr.. 1995
Food security and health security: explaining the levels of nutritional status in Pakistan
Alderman, Harold; Garcia, Marito. 1994
Alderman, Harold; Garcia, Marito. 1994
Human capital, productivity, and labor allocation in rural Pakistan
Fafchamps, Marcel; Quisumbing, Agnes R.. 1999
Fafchamps, Marcel; Quisumbing, Agnes R.. 1999
Abstract | View
This paper investigates whether human capital affects the productivity and labor allocation of rural households in four districts of Pakistan. We find that households with better educated males earn higher off-farm income and divert labor resources away from farm activities toward nonfarm work. Education has no significant effect on productivity in crop and livestock production. The effect of human capital on household incomes is partly realized through the reallocation of labor from low productivity activities to nonfarm work. Female education and nutrition do not affect productivity and labor allocation in any systematic fashion, consistent with the marginal role women play in market oriented activities in Pakistan. As a by-product, our estimation approach also tests the existence of perfect labor and factor markets; this hypothesis is strongly rejected." -- Authors' Abstract
Women's status: levels, determinants, consequences for malnutrition, interventions, and policy
Haddad, Lawrence James. 1999
Haddad, Lawrence James. 1999
Abstract | View
This paper uses a gendered conceptual framework of the determinants of child survival, growth, and development to organize a review of the latest evidence on the strength of causal linkages between child nutrition outcomes and the relative status of women in seven Asian countries. Using a variety of indicators, the paper demonstrates the considerable variation in the status of women relative to men in the seven countries. Of the seven study countries, the status of women relative to men is lowest in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The paper also reaffirms that equality in women's status relative to men's controlling for a host of socioeconomic factors, has a positive impact on child growth and discourages the intergenerational perpetuation of gender-based discrimination. The paper explores some of the economic and cultural explanations for the relatively poor status of women in the countries in question and draws out implications for policy and project design. Efforts to modify policy and project design to counter gender discrimination will rely on the effective monitoring of the status of women and the supportiveness of the enabling legal environment.
Private tubewell development and groundwater markets in Pakistan: a district-level analysis
Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. 1994
Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. 1994
Ground water markets in Pakistan: an analysis of selected issues
Strosser, Pierre; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. Ahmedabad, Gujarat 1994
Strosser, Pierre; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela. Ahmedabad, Gujarat 1994
The abolition of the wheat flour ration shops in Pakistan
Garrett, James L.; Islam, Yassir. Washington, DC 2005
Garrett, James L.; Islam, Yassir. Washington, DC 2005
Abstract | View
"Since before Independence, the Government of Pakistan had been operating wheat-flour ration shops intended to provide subsidized wheat-flour to low income groups. By the mid 1980s, the system had come under increasing attack because it was inefficient and because most of the cheap flour was not in fact reaching the intended target groups. However, fears of the political backlash from affected groups made policy makers reluctant to eliminate the program. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was contracted to conduct an independent evaluation of the wheat-flour ration shops. The evaluation found that more than 70 per cent of the subsidized wheat never found its way to the ration-shop consumers or subsidized bakeries. The study also found that very few poor consumers benefited from the subsidies, and that alternative measures could be taken to reduce the negative impacts of eliminating the program on the wheatflour shops and distributors. The rapid, informal communication of the findings before the formal reports were published, and at a time when the issue was being debated at the highest policy levels, provided the political cover required to eliminate the program. While not the only reason for the elimination of the ration shops, the IFPRI study, which cost around $500,000, made a significant contribution to the implementation of policies, producing net annual savings to the Government of at least $40 million." -- Authors Abstract
Social roles, human capital, and the intrahousehold division of labor: evidence from Pakistan
Fafchamps, Marcel; Quisumbing, Agnes R.. 2003
Fafchamps, Marcel; Quisumbing, Agnes R.. 2003
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