BANGLADESH: AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Harikhali in Paigachha, Bangladesh; Source:Flickr-CGIAR-CCAFS

Despite dependency on natural resources and vulnerability to climate change, agriculture in Bangladesh contributes about 20 percent of the GDP and provides work to about 52 percent of the population. Over the years the country has experienced erratic rainfall, high temperature, drought, and high humidity -- impacting farmers, especially smallholders who have historically incurred significant losses.

According to the planning commission in 2005 about 60 percent of the crops were damaged due to cyclones which increase poverty at similar percentage and also decline in economic growth by 15 percent for that period.  The effect of climate change especially on cyclone frequency, storm intensity, and excessive rainfall will also impact the aquaculture infrastructure and livestock rearing. Frequent cyclone warning lead fishers to stay at home thus lowering their income and nutritional status of the rural poor.

A recent IFPRI discussion paper on Agriculture and Adaption in Bangladesh- discusses the impact of climate change in agriculture in Bangladesh by looking at crop yields, sowing pattern, fertilizers usage, irrigation usage with changing rainfall patterns etc. Despite knowledge on impact of climate change and undertaking adaption options, the farmers in the household survey gave insight on loss incurred during such shocks. In the year of the survey, farmers lost about 12 percent of the harvest due to issues related to floods and about 3 percent of rice is lost due to pests.

Using crop models for the current and future climates, the authors predict impact of climate on yield, and report the differences from crop to crop. For example, wheat production suffers yield declines due to climate change (mostly heat), whereas maize has only a small decline in yield when the production is already using a high level of fertilizer. An important finding of the research is that boro rice yields will actually rise with climate change if the planting month is moved to November or December from January or February.

The paper suggests investment in research to develop improved cultivars, and that adjusting planting dates can lessen the impact of climate change on yields especially in rice. It has been observed that increase in availability of nitrogen in soil can help in reducing losses in yields in some crops.

Using the IFPRI IMPACT model, the price of maize is expected to increase by 209 percent by 2050 in one of the models, while rice is only expected to increase by 83 percent in the same model. Thus switching from rice to maize in future could potentially bring benefit the farmers, assuming yield changes for the two crops are similar. Improving adoption practices during excessive rains and floods will reduce crops loss to farmers. Efforts towards improving pesticide efficiency are needed as farmers lose about 3 percent of production due to pest-related issue.